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Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow


Damage In Tolland

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Big sailboat race on Nantucket Sound this saturday called the Figawi. Is the wind going to be stiff out of the S(west track), L and V(overhead track) or stiff N(east track)? If the wind gets up over 30mph, there are always blown out sails and sometimes dismasting.

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Big sailboat race on Nantucket Sound this saturday called the Figawi. Is the wind going to be stiff out of the S(west track), L and V(overhead track) or stiff N(east track)? If the wind gets up over 30mph, there are always blown out sails and sometimes dismasting.

 

I'd say SSW possibly, but it's close to having the low hang overhead with variable winds. Maybe a gust to 20kts or so.

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Phil said the boundary shifted from CHH at 00z to the canal at 12z on the Euro so it's tickling west FTW

ens are a little east of the op.

NAM is even interesting for the higher els around here. Maybe some cat paws for Gunstock and wxeye?

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ens are a little east of the op.

NAM is even interesting for the higher els around here. Maybe some cat paws for Gunstock and wxeye?

 

Not going to see this prog too often on Memorial Day Weekend... either way it is just going to be brutal with rain and temps in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the region.

 

nam_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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Man, its just raw even in the lower elevations with upper 30s and rain over most of NH/VT on the NAM...elevations in WNW NH and NE VT getting snow.  Even northern ORH county in the upper 30s with H85s of -3C with light precip...and heavier shower at -3C could do the groupel or frozen core type deal.

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BTV AFD sounds good... snow above 2,500ft at this point is probably a good bet.

 

I forgot the marathon is on Sunday morning... that's going to be absolutely raw.

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH OVER 100M 12H HGT FALLS REACHING THE
DELMARMA AREA BY 00Z SAT THEN ROTATE NORTH TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THEN WAITS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
STRONG QG FORCING, WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO COMBINE TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO PUT A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS (ABOVE 2500 FT)
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ANOTHER 0.75-1.50" OF STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...HOW FAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION. LEANED TOWARD THE EMCWF WHICH IS NOT GREAT NEWS FOR THE
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MARATHON IN BURLINGTON.

KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WITHOUT SHOWERS AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING AND AND LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD FOR MAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.

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Interestingly....maybe a prelude of things to come?  BAX north of Detroit reported 4sm -SN a little while ago.  I noticed the Intellicast Radar showed a little blip of blue over there and sure enough the ASOS did report -SN in the middle of the afternoon on May 23rd. 

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Interestingly....maybe a prelude of things to come?  BAX north of Detroit reported 4sm -SN a little while ago.  I noticed the Intellicast Radar showed a little blip of blue over there and sure enough the ASOS did report -SN in the middle of the afternoon on May 23rd.

I don't buy snow the ob, but it's definitely raw out there.
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I don't buy snow the ob, but it's definitely raw out there.

 

I did think it was odd with a temp of 39F... but the visibility was consistently 10sm -RN then dropped to 4sm with the snow ob, so I figured maybe it was right.  You think the whole thing was bogus or it was just some heavier drizzle/fog that might have caused the vis drop?

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Maple Mauler.

 

 

attachicon.gifMVL.gif

 

That has west slope crusher written all over it... judging by the change in wind, there's an inversion right near ridge-top on the Spine.  That NW flow in the lower levels will get shoved up into the Spine but NE winds above ridgetop will keep that upslope enhancement/cooling right on the west slopes with no propagation east of the spine. 

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man..lots of :weenie: in this thread today

 

See, even the chance for snow (any time of the year) will bring about more weather discussion than any amount of humidity ;) 

 

I do say I'm jealous of you guys in SNE with the great met input during the winter.  Even though I won't be around for whatever happens, I do like that Will/ORH will be in the area as it has him paying attention to N.VT weather more than usual. 

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See, even the chance for snow (any time of the year) will bring about more weather discussion than any amount of humidity ;) 

 

I do say I'm jealous of you guys in SNE with the great met input during the winter.  Even though I won't be around for whatever happens, I do like that Will/ORH will be in the area as it has him paying attention to N.VT weather more than usual.

post-254-0-51313600-1369351431_thumb.jpg

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I did think it was odd with a temp of 39F... but the visibility was consistently 10sm -RN then dropped to 4sm with the snow ob, so I figured maybe it was right.  You think the whole thing was bogus or it was just some heavier drizzle/fog that might have caused the vis drop?

850s weren't even below 0C in the Thumb at the time. It's an AWOS so they're prone to false -SN obs in that 3-6C range with heavier drizzle. Intellicast popped up the blue shadings simply because of the ob.
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18z GFS came in a bit warmer, but still has just an insane CCB/deformation over N VT. I would still think that is destrcution at 2,000 feet in the region...also a very moist NNW BL flow during the most intense precip which would mean the N Greens upslope zone would absolutely clean up and likely be colder than model guidance shows...esp the GFS which doesn't have the reoslution for that type of thing.

 

 

I would like to see the 00z suite come in bullish before actually forecasting solid snow for where I'll be chasing (potentially chasing that is)

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