powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 It depends on the forecaster...technically they don't need to forecast for uninhabited high elevations. There's a crew of outdoorsy types like Lahiff/Taber/Banacos/Mucilli that will mention that sort of stuff. If it happens 2500+ feet though some of the forecasters won't mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 It depends on the forecaster...technically they don't need to forecast for uninhibited high elevations. There's a crew of outdoorsy types like Lahiff/Taber/Banacos/Mucilli that will mention that sort of stuff. If it happens 2500+ feet though some of the forecasters won't mention it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I will say the potential impact is pretty high this weekend...about as high as you'll get for the mountains being the first major tourist weekend of the summer season. This is usually a very crowded weekend on Mansfield with hikers and campers and the same around the rest of VT. Snow would definitely have an impact on unprepared folks planning to spend the weekend outdoors hiking and camping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 lol Damn auto-correct haha. Good catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 lol nudist colony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I will say the potential impact is pretty high this weekend...about as high as you'll get for the mountains being the first major tourist weekend of the summer season. This is usually a very crowded weekend on Mansfield with hikers and campers and the same around the rest of VT. Snow would definitely have an impact on unprepared folks planning to spend the weekend outdoors hiking and camping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 It depends on the forecaster...technically they don't need to forecast for uninhibited high elevations. There's a crew of outdoorsy types like Lahiff/Taber/Banacos/Mucilli that will mention that sort of stuff. If it happens 2500+ feet though some of the forecasters won't mention it. Might be even lower than that... I think if it was little more certain, might be the primary reason why there's less discussion. At this time of year, synoptic at mid levels can look a lot more impressive than what transpires underneath. It has to do with weak ambient baroclinicity. You need focused and steep frontal slopes for stronger surface cyclogenesis. Lots of nuances to iron out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Might be even lower than that... I think if it was little more certain, might be the primary reason why there's less discussion. At this time of year, synoptic at mid levels can look a lot more impressive than what transpires underneath. It has to do with weak ambient baroclinicity. You need focused and steep frontal slopes for stronger surface cyclogenesis. Lots of nuances to iron out. If we have one more round of models at 00z tonight that look similar to 12z (or any amount better)...I can guarantee you won't have to worry about it not being mentioned. It will start to get plenty of attention because there's definitely an unignorable probability that this produces significant accumulating snow below 2,000 feet. Right now, that prob is still low enough not to go bonkers yet, but another status quo or improvement on 00z, and I bet we'll start to hear some chirping from the agencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 nudist colony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Might be even lower than that... I think if it was little more certain, might be the primary reason why there's less discussion. At this time of year, synoptic at mid levels can look a lot more impressive than what transpires underneath. It has to do with weak ambient baroclinicity. You need focused and steep frontal slopes for stronger surface cyclogenesis. Lots of nuances to iron out. Yeah I just think 2500ft because the highest roads top out at 2000-2500ft and there are folks that live at those elevations. The highest houses I can think of are around 2400ft. Last April we had a big 1-3 foot wet snow upslope event with over 30" at 3500ft and only like 2-4" at 1500ft. I remember BTV's AFD stating they don't issue Winter Storm statements for warning events above 2500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 If we have one more round of models at 00z tonight that look similar to 12z (or any amount better)...I can guarantee you won't have to worry about it not being mentioned. It will start to get plenty of attention because there's definitely an unignorable probability that this produces significant accumulating snow below 2,000 feet. Right now, that prob is still low enough not to go bonkers yet, but another status quo or improvement on 00z, and I bet we'll start to hear some chirping from the agencies. Yeah ..you know, as certainly must be the case with most, I have been onto this sneaky potential for awhile now. From my seat, these runs are continuing a long a trend to arrive at that sort of scenario. It doesn't really seem to "me" to be a "new" potential because of that. I remember when I lived in Waltham, I think it was the spring of 2001... but it was 38F at noon, with sheets of rain, and noodles mixed in, on May 22nd. That is the latest date of any season at this latitude and relative elevation that I have ever seen frozen. I'm pretty sure Worcester got 1.5" of slush out of that -- but you would know. By the way folks, it may be over 90 at the end of the week. Edit: May 18th, 2002 actually... between .5 and 1.0" of snow in Worcester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Yeah ..you know, as certainly must be the case with most, I have been onto this sneaky potential for awhile now. From my seat, these runs are continuing a long a trend to arrive at that sort of scenario. It doesn't really seem to "me" to be a "new" potential because of that. I remember when I lived in Waltham, I think it was the spring of 2001... but it was 38F at noon, with sheets of rain, and noodles mixed in, on May 22nd. That is the latest date of any season at this latitude and relative elevation that I have ever seen frozen. I'm pretty sure Worcester got 1.5" of slush out of that -- but you would know. By the way folks, it may be over 90 at the end of the week. May 18, 2002 was the event you are thinking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I will say the potential impact is pretty high this weekend...about as high as you'll get for the mountains being the first major tourist weekend of the summer season. This is usually a very crowded weekend on Mansfield with hikers and campers and the same around the rest of VT. Snow would definitely have an impact on unprepared folks planning to spend the weekend outdoors hiking and camping. Tell you what, you can come down to Woodstock as planned, I and I will go to VT to experience late May snow. Sounds fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 May 18, 2002 was the event you are thinking of. Yep I edited... heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Tell you what, you can come down to Woodstock as planned, I and I will go to VT to experience late May snow. Sounds fair. Haha. It figures that I would go down into the axis of jackpot this past winter only to have a potentially historic event back home on Memorial Day weekend. Union probably had about as much snow as I had this winter at my house in Stowe Village (110"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 It depends on the forecaster...technically they don't need to forecast for uninhabited high elevations. There's a crew of outdoorsy types like Lahiff/Taber/Banacos/Mucilli that will mention that sort of stuff. If it happens 2500+ feet though some of the forecasters won't mention it. You don't hear it here as if people don't recreate in the mountains, but out west they often refer to snow or freezing level. For outdoor enthusiasts in the shoulder seasons here, that could still be helpful. The Mountain Forecast site does a nice graph showing the different forecast levels and here's Mt Mansfield: http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Mount-Mansfield/forecasts/1339 The one near me has a freezing level of 3,000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Haha. It figures that I would go down into the axis of jackpot this past winter only to have a potentially historic event back home on Memorial Day weekend. Union probably had about as much snow as I had this winter at my house in Stowe Village (110"). You could always hope for an east shift like me and hope for some flakes in Woodstock. I think snow in NE CT on Memorial Day weekend would be equal to accumulating snow at 2000' in northern VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Just waxed my skis. It's on. I think this verifies as more than 3-6 above 3000ft in the Greens. If jay got 12-14 at the summit I wouldn't even bat an eye in surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I tell you what ... if for some reason less lower tropospheric response takes place...we could end up with low top convection on Sunday, with that kind of hybrid pea-sized hail/grauple. Less organized low pressure sometimes works out of these spring troughs, and the models will sometimes over -do development. That said ... I have seen wind swept Nor easters in July, so yes and no. I'm think that things could end up pretty damn white up in dem dar hills. If the GGEM is right... some of those 800 and 900 ft ridgle lines in N ORH get noodles mixed in, maybe even a 'chute or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 If the GGEM is right... some of those 800 and 900 ft ridgle lines in N ORH get noodles mixed in, maybe even a 'chute or two. What is a noodle? I've heard that a lot lately but never heard that time to describe marginal snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Just waxed my skis. It's on. I think this verifies as more than 3-6 above 3000ft in the Greens. If jay got 12-14 at the summit I wouldn't even bat an eye in surprise. I think its either all or nothing... in other words like light precip and 1-3" of wet snow on grass at the lift terminals (3,500ft and above)...or its just a crushing fronto band with SN+ mixing all the way down to like 1,000ft. I could envision a radar that is showing green/rain surrounding a band of dark blue in the middle where the precip is the heaviest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 What is a noodle? I've heard that a lot lately but never heard that time to describe marginal snow... Between cat-paws and wet 'chutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 FWIW the lackluster EWall graphics it looks like the UKMET is a bit east...has the band more in NH/ME dipping into E.MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Euro ensembles have the low stalled over the cape it appears. Still nice and cold below 850 over VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 The NAM looks a little east and a little colder than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 Phil said the boundary shifted from CHH at 00z to the canal at 12z on the Euro so it's tickling west FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Phil said the boundary shifted from CHH at 00z to the canal at 12z on the Euro so it's tickling west FTW I think you want it a little more west...but that's a little better for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 You don't hear it here as if people don't recreate in the mountains, but out west they often refer to snow or freezing level. For outdoor enthusiasts in the shoulder seasons here, that could still be helpful. The Mountain Forecast site does a nice graph showing the different forecast levels and here's Mt Mansfield: http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Mount-Mansfield/forecasts/1339 The one near me has a freezing level of 3,000' Pretty cool.... yeah I do like how they issue the freezing or snow levels out west in the forecasts. I think that would be good for some of the mountain counties in the zone forecasts up this way. Sometimes snow above 2000ft and rain below will show up in a zone forecast as: "Rain. Snow. Light Accumulation possible. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent." It is like the computer generating the zone forecast can't decide what to do because half the terrain in the county is over the snow level and half is under the snow level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Fwiw, Cisco/NCEPs seems on board... THE UPCOMING PATTERN, LIKE MANY THIS SPRING, IS AN EXTREMELYANOMALOUS ONE. THE VORTEX OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIODWILL KEEP MUCH OF THAT REGION DOWNRIGHT COLD DAYS 3 AND 4, WITHSNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE INTERIOR DAY 3. AT THE OTHEREND OF THE LONG DIAGONAL OF THE NATION, THE POWERFUL JET DIVINGDOWN THE PACIFIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD RARE LATE MAY RAINSINTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DAY 5 INTO DAY 6, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE INTHE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF MUCH OF THE STATE. PRECIPITABLE WATERVALUES OFF THE 0.25-KM ECMWF TUESDAY EVENING ARE BETWEEN 1 AND1.25" COMING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 No mention of anything close to snow in the latest GYX AFD except for potentially heavy rainfall from the storm in the northern zones and mountains: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...CUTOFF AND SFC LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THRU THE WEEKENDCONTINUING PRCP ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVYRAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING MAX QPF ACROSS THE N//MT ZONES TO WRN NHZONES. GFS MUCH HIGHER ON QPF...WITH OTHER MODELS PREFERRED. USEDHPC QPF FOR A COMPROMISE. CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS MOVE NE OF THE AREAMONDAY WITH IMPROVING WX...BUT STILL COOL AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOWALOFT ALONG WITH FAIRLY AMPLE RH COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS ANDPSBL -SHRA EVEN ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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