powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Do you think we need to see colder than normal thicknesses though with the time of year? I think the real question is are the models too cold. The thickness values are the same in May as they are in January, no? I think a lot of times we talk about getting colder thicknesses early/late season for valley locations and even inhabited elevations of like 1,000ft type deal. You want a buffer or be really sure if you are forecasting snow for inhabited areas and sub 1,500ft locations. I've seen enough elevation stuff to know that once you are getting 2,500ft, 3,000ft, 3,500ft, 4,000ft, etc the normal rules that you think about when you apply them to where most folks live, don't really work anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 COngrats kevin on 55F temps Sat aftn, Euro hits nrn VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 COngrats kevin on 55F temps Sat aftn, Euro hits nrn VT.Damn cold in the Dacks and N Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Damn cold in the Dacks and N Greens. Hair colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Nice! 55 is nice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Low position isn't far from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Low position isn't far from 00z. Checkers, cheese+crackers,Corona,Carhardt weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 55 is nice? Hey its all about expectations...lol. At first he was thinking 70F on a NW wind...then perhaps relented to mid 60s. Now we've fallen so far that 55F with mostly cloudy skies would be a huge win. We need to change the subtitle of this thread to Beers, Bailey's and Hot Chocolate, Skis, Snow shovels, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 This is from last October, 12th... but I could envision a very similar type deal with a 2,700-3,000ft snow line across the mountains. This is pretty much what we get with steady light-mod precipitation and H85 temps at like 0C to -3C. If precipitation gets dynamic and heavy, maybe it goes lower to 2,000ft or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Does the euro still shows rain sat and cloudy drizzle on sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 55 is nice?As Phil posted in blog it could get into the 60's on the Cape with Euro track and if 12z is close to 00z then it won't be bad out there at all with even sunny breaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I can't believe how cold the Euro is on Saturday up there. Its actually colder on Saturday than Sunday up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Sunday has a self destructive look to it down here with shwrs and maybe iso tstm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 what's it got down this way Sun and Mon? Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Even on the NAM and GFS sim radar product I have...there are some patches of snow showing up in VT and even in the Berks on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 sub 540 thicknesses pop over NYS and VT on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I'll give it another 24-36 hours before I hang myself... but really trying to come up with reasons not to go to CT with family this weekend, lol. Ski resort not too pleased as this is the first big tourist weekend for warm weather activities like the Toll Road (looks like it'll be closed if this pans out) to 4,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I'll give it another 24-36 hours before I hang myself... but really trying to come up with reasons not to go to CT with family this weekend, lol. I think you already did...how about some nice memorial day picnic facetime or something?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I'll give it another 24-36 hours before I hang myself... but really trying to come up with reasons not to go to CT with family this weekend, lol. Ski resort not too pleased as this is the first big tourist weekend for warm weather activities like the Toll Road (looks like it'll be closed if this pans out) to 4,000ft. easy - it's going to snow. and you'll miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Powderfreak is going to swallow a snow gun after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I'll give it another 24-36 hours before I hang myself... but really trying to come up with reasons not to go to CT with family this weekend, lol. I'm encouraged by the colder trend. Def cooled off both 850 and the sfc on Saturday. It still tried to push stuff a bit west overnight Sat night/early Sunday, but I suspect it may look a bit better if we keep this trend up. The 18z Saturday map looks like ti would be easy snow in the elevatiosn despite midday in late May. It even has some little areas of -4C 850 contours showing up just W of BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Powderfreak is going to swallow a snow gun after this weekend. The Woodstock authorities are already disconnecting power to his family's vacation home and removing all cordage from the property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I'm curious as to why this is not getting more notice or much attention at all in the AFDs around the area, but most operational guidance types have a freak snow storm for elevations on Sunday. Look at this GGEM version... Looks like 3,000 and above gets white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 NOGAPs hammers the Greens with elevation snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 The Woodstock authorities are already disconnecting power to his family's vacation home and removing all cordage from the property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Whereas the Euro (12z) offers -2C at 850 over the Tughill Plateau with ongoing output... This model has actually been the least consistent with it's placement of the cold air in relation to the closing deep layer vortex. Not sure why it's having issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 easy - it's going to snow. and you'll miss it. The Woodstock authorities are already disconnecting power to his family's vacation home and removing all cordage from the property. LOL... you guys are killing me. The irony of it is making me laugh though and it's why I really think this has a shot. The missing out on summit snowfall in May wouldn't bug me really at all (I've missed that before)... what I fear is missing something that becomes more ridiculous than just 3-6" above 3000ft. The fear is that 3-6" gets down into some very anomously low elevations (like 1000ft) and over a foot falls up higher. I just have visions of April 28, 2010 in my head where it was supposed to be higher elevations but strong lift and upslope cooling brought very heavy accumulating snow even into the Champlain Valley. I fear like a May 18 2002 when I was in Albany and got 3" of snow at like 200ft....you never know with dynamics, odd things can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Oh, ha -- I just posted a bunch of charts about that elevations snow potential for Sunday in the other thread. Didn't know this was here. Anyway, I am surprised BTV does mention it in their AFD ... at least the one I read this morning. Maybe they have since. But the NOGAPs and GGEM (as will pointed out) offer up some decent frozen potential for ...I would guess above 3,000 ft, but I wouldn't be surprised if noodles mixed in around the els of ORH Co. Definitely in the Berk's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Oh, ha -- I just posted a bunch of charts about that elevations snow potential for Sunday in the other thread. Didn't know this was here. Anyway, I am surprised BTV does mention it in their AFD ... at least the one I read this morning. Maybe they have since. But the NOGAPs and GGEM (as will pointed out) offer up some decent frozen potential for ...I would guess above 3,000 ft, but I wouldn't be surprised if noodles mixed in around the els of ORH Co. Definitely in the Berk's. I am sure they will cover it in the long term as it updates within the next hour. It is still the 4am long term in there now. Their updated synopsis hints at that: .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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