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Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow


Damage In Tolland

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Do you think we need to see colder than normal thicknesses though with the time of year? 

 

I think the real question is are the models too cold.  The thickness values are the same in May as they are in January, no?  I think a lot of times we talk about getting colder thicknesses early/late season for valley locations and even inhabited elevations of like 1,000ft type deal.  You want a buffer or be really sure if you are forecasting snow for inhabited areas and sub 1,500ft locations.

 

I've seen enough elevation stuff to know that once you are getting 2,500ft, 3,000ft, 3,500ft, 4,000ft, etc  the normal rules that you think about when you apply them to where most folks live, don't really work anymore. 

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55 is nice?

 

Hey its all about expectations...lol. At first he was thinking 70F on a NW wind...then perhaps relented to mid 60s. Now we've fallen so far that 55F with mostly cloudy skies would be a huge win.

We need to change the subtitle of this thread to Beers, Bailey's and Hot Chocolate, Skis, Snow shovels,

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This is from last October, 12th... but I could envision a very similar type deal with a 2,700-3,000ft snow line across the mountains.  This is pretty much what we get with steady light-mod precipitation and H85 temps at like 0C to -3C.  If precipitation gets dynamic and heavy, maybe it goes lower to 2,000ft or so?

 

IMG_8109_edited-1.jpg

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I'll give it another 24-36 hours before I hang myself... but really trying to come up with reasons not to go to CT with family this weekend, lol.   Ski resort not too pleased as this is the first big tourist weekend for warm weather activities like the Toll Road (looks like it'll be closed if this pans out) to 4,000ft. 

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I'll give it another 24-36 hours before I hang myself... but really trying to come up with reasons not to go to CT with family this weekend, lol.   Ski resort not too pleased as this is the first big tourist weekend for warm weather activities like the Toll Road (looks like it'll be closed if this pans out) to 4,000ft. 

easy - it's going to snow. and you'll miss it. 

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I'll give it another 24-36 hours before I hang myself... but really trying to come up with reasons not to go to CT with family this weekend, lol.

 

I'm encouraged by the colder trend. Def cooled off both 850 and the sfc on Saturday. It still tried to push stuff a bit west overnight Sat night/early Sunday, but I suspect it may look a bit better if we keep this trend up.

The 18z Saturday map looks like ti would be easy snow in the elevatiosn despite midday in late May. It even has some little areas of -4C 850 contours showing up just W of BTV.

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I'm curious as to why this is not getting more notice or much attention at all in the AFDs around the area, but most operational guidance types have a freak snow storm for elevations on Sunday.  Look at this GGEM version... Looks like 3,000 and above gets white

 

f60.gif

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Whereas the Euro (12z) offers -2C at 850 over the Tughill Plateau with ongoing output...   This model has actually been the least consistent with it's placement of the cold air in relation to the closing deep layer vortex.  Not sure why it's having issues... 

 

f72.gif

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easy - it's going to snow. and you'll miss it.

The Woodstock authorities are already disconnecting power to his family's vacation home and removing all cordage from the property.

LOL... you guys are killing me. The irony of it is making me laugh though and it's why I really think this has a shot.

The missing out on summit snowfall in May wouldn't bug me really at all (I've missed that before)... what I fear is missing something that becomes more ridiculous than just 3-6" above 3000ft. The fear is that 3-6" gets down into some very anomously low elevations (like 1000ft) and over a foot falls up higher.

I just have visions of April 28, 2010 in my head where it was supposed to be higher elevations but strong lift and upslope cooling brought very heavy accumulating snow even into the Champlain Valley.

I fear like a May 18 2002 when I was in Albany and got 3" of snow at like 200ft....you never know with dynamics, odd things can happen.

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Oh, ha -- I just posted a bunch of charts about that elevations snow potential for Sunday in the other thread.  Didn't know this was here.  

 

 

Anyway, I am surprised BTV does mention it in their AFD ... at least the one I read this morning.  Maybe they have since.  But the NOGAPs and GGEM (as will pointed out) offer up some decent frozen potential for ...I would guess above 3,000 ft, but I wouldn't be surprised if noodles mixed in around the els of ORH Co.  Definitely in the Berk's.  

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Oh, ha -- I just posted a bunch of charts about that elevations snow potential for Sunday in the other thread.  Didn't know this was here.  

 

 

Anyway, I am surprised BTV does mention it in their AFD ... at least the one I read this morning.  Maybe they have since.  But the NOGAPs and GGEM (as will pointed out) offer up some decent frozen potential for ...I would guess above 3,000 ft, but I wouldn't be surprised if noodles mixed in around the els of ORH Co.  Definitely in the Berk's.  

 

 

I am sure they will cover it in the long term as it updates within the next hour. It is still the 4am long term in there now. Their updated synopsis hints at that:

 

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME

THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS WILL MOVE

REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVE COPIOUS

AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE

RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW

ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

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