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Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow


Damage In Tolland

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I may lose it, lol... you get the big snows in the winter and then you head up to my neck of the woods and I head down to yours, only to probably look at pictures of them plowing the high elevation roads above 2,000ft.

 

We are in the same boat on this one.

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That is major crushage right there for the Greens. The funny thing is that the NAM sort of did it too even though the sfc low was a bit west of the GFS...the upper level mechanics seem to be honing in on that area. Euro had a nice period too for N VT, though it was maybe a smidge west...but trended east from its 12z run. We'll have to see how it goes today at 12z.

 

One thing is for certain...if they get in on that type of deformation/dynamics like that, the snow proabbly won't be just confined to 2,000 feet...prob down to 1,000 feet there, perhaps even lower. 2K would get a monster snowstorm though. Pretty funny that its even a legit possibility at this point in late May. Still have a lot of details to iron out and they matter a lot.

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That is major crushage right there for the Greens. The funny thing is that the NAM sort of did it too even though the sfc low was a bit west of the GFS...the upper level mechanics seem to be honing in on that area. Euro had a nice period too for N VT, though it was maybe a smidge west...but trended east from its 12z run. We'll have to see how it goes today at 12z.

 

One thing is for certain...if they get in on that type of deformation/dynamics like that, the snow proabbly won't be just confined to 2,000 feet...prob down to 1,000 feet there, perhaps even lower. 2K would get a monster snowstorm though. Pretty funny that its even a legit possibility at this point in late May. Still have a lot of details to iron out and they matter a lot.

 

You know the models are probably a smidge to warm under that band from the srfc to 850 or so...but look at those srfc temps. To see them that cold on the GFS is telling. 

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As best I can tell, this is the QPF with sub-0C H85 temps across the central/northern Greens... summit plastering.

 

It has the classic upslope or enhanced NW flow QPF-notch, so there's likely some very favorable orographics occurring in that too.  Upslope forced ascent would add a little help to cooling the column below H85.  That's about as good a synoptic set-up your going to get for significant precipitation production in central/northern Greens anytime of the year. 

 

Mid-level deformation plus prime low level upslope.  A month earlier and it would be like the April 27-28, 2010 storm that bombed the western slopes and Greens with synoptic + NW flow and resulted in up to 2 feet.

 

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As best I can tell, this is the QPF with sub-0C H85 temps across the central/northern Greens... summit plastering.

It has the classic upslope or enhanced NW flow QPF-notch, so there's likely some very favorable orographics occurring in that too. Upslope forced ascent would add a little help to cooling the column below H85. That's about as good a synoptic set-up your going to get for significant precipitation production in central/northern Greens anytime of the year.

Mid-level deformation plus prime low level upslope. A month earlier and it would be like the April 27-28, 2010 storm that bombed the western slopes and Greens with synoptic + NW flow and resulted in up to 2 feet.

GFS.jpg

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One thing is for certain...if they get in on that type of deformation/dynamics like that, the snow proabbly won't be just confined to 2,000 feet...prob down to 1,000 feet there, perhaps even lower. 2K would get a monster snowstorm though. Pretty funny that its even a legit possibility at this point in late May. Still have a lot of details to iron out and they matter a lot.

 

That crossed my mind... very similar to the end of April 2010 event though a month later which is a big concern.  That had a sfc low hug the coast and actually move into Maine with big deformation and upslope flow couplet.

 

Those are our biggest events...NW flow low level and mid-level deformation.

 

From J.Spin's website...this was the Bolton Valley base at 2,100ft on April 28, 2010...it would have to all come together but the potential is there with the low level upslope cooling assist.

 

28APR10G.jpg

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Aside from temps below 3-4,000ft... a concern would be if its cold enough to produce meaningful snowflakes within the strong lifted zone.

 

It certainly is just above 700mb to 500mb. That's where the good lift is if you believe the GFS and there is actually a little conditionally unstable layer near and above 500mb at 18z Saturday.

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Aside from temps below 3-4,000ft... a concern would be if its cold enough to produce meaningful snowflakes within the strong lifted zone.

 

 

Looks pretty awesome on this sounding...hopefully we see that mid-level moisture maximized over that area

 

 130523163433.gif

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Lol that's insane, clown maps?

 

Snow Depth... lol.  You can see what it is doing... Spine and Western Slopes.  Pretty Climo favored areas in this set up with NW flow enhancing low level cooling.  Very similar to past late-season and early-season events.  If there will be lower elevation snow it will be along the western slope upslope areas.

 

12zgfssnowdepth072.gif

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The other GFS clown map:

conusgfs0p5sfcaccumsnow.gif

I actually think its underdone given what I saw on the model. The low level temps are likely to be biased warm on the models as they probably overplay the diabatic heating with the late May sun angle.

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Do the high thicknesses concern anyone? The 540 line on the models doesn't even come close to the Canada-U.S. border even though there's a pool of 0C 850mb temperatures over the Greens/Dacks.

 

Yes but I'm not sure anyone is really looking for lower elevation snowfall... to me this is still just to get it white or accumulate something from like 2,000ft or 2,500ft and higher.  I think worst case scenario, there's still accumulations on the mountain tops.  The usual thickness rules don't apply when you are trying to get snow to fall in the 925mb-875mb level. 

 

The trick will be that fronto band... if that gets robust and cranking off 0.1-0.2"/hr rates, that'll mix snowflakes down dynamically to mid-mountain levels.  If not, we may just end up with a transient coating of white above like 3,500ft.

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Do you think it can make it down to the Monadnocks and Berkshires with some snowfall?

 

Well that depends heavily on where that deformation band sets up because you will need the dynamics to help significantly. If it sets up more in VT or NNE and we are left with more showery precip on the srn edge of the band...then it might not be enough for more than mangles flakes. It's pretty much a nowcast issue.

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Do you think we need to see colder than normal thicknesses though with the time of year?

 

The thicknesses are absolute measurements of temp. They don't change because its May. The only issue it might create is the very lowest levels are diabatically warmed more than usual. But this wouldn't be a big deal for elevated places in the Green Mountains...and would likely not matter even a bit lower down if there was heavy precip in a deformation band. Models will often have a warm bias in the 2m temps in that setup.

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