patrick05 Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 View from Aparri Radar... the eye will be passing just north of Basco, Batanes.. i'm eager to see what the effects will be in that small town... i believe the houses there are built in corals and rocks for centuries to withstand the strong monsoons (southwest and northeast) throughout the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Looks like the eye wall replacement cycle is still going on. Its about to get into low OHC values also. Looks like it will continue to steadily weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Looks like there is an island just north of where the eye is about to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 912 mb on Batan Island. That's below 27.00 in. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Just last couple of frames, what had been an indistinct eye again surrounded by -80C tops and a warm spot is developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 The current GFS/Euro as well as JTWC/JMA tracks all bring Usagi just north of the island. I was talking about Taiwan, not Luzon, sorry for not being clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 912 mb on Batan Island. That's below 27.00 in. Crazy. Basco, Batan Island took a direct hit. Please let there be a calibrated recording barometer somewhere in that city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Just last couple of frames, what had been an indistinct eye again surrounded by -80C tops and a warm spot is developing. Image? Microwave still says eyewall replacement.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Basco, Batan Island took a direct hit. Please let there be a calibrated recording barometer somewhere in that city. Well, that 912 mb might be from Basco. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Well, there is this station on the island, but I don't know where. Most likely at the airport or the harbor. The hourly updates show sustained at 112 mph during the eyewall hour. The last update was 922.7 mb (27.25inHg) with winds NW @ 15 (I assume the eye, or the instrument broke.) http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/98134/2013/9/21/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Well, there is this station on the island, but I don't know where. Most likely at the airport or the harbor. The hourly updates show sustained at 112 mph during the eyewall hour. The last update was 922.7 mb (27.25inHg) with winds NW @ 15 (I assume the eye, or the instrument broke.) http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/98134/2013/9/21/DailyHistory.html I was wondering if that 97 kt was sustained. If it is, can we assume it's a 10-min reading, since that's what everyone else uses? If so, yowee! The wind device must have broken. They're not in the eye, because the pressure was much lower before, and they shouldn't be experiencing a lull with the pressure up 10 mb like that-- they should be on the backside getting raked. EDIT: A met whom I respect says the 922 mb was from inside the eye-- in which case, I don't know what the 912 mb is. I'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Looking at latest IR loops and CWB radar looks like it's jogging more to the NW, gained more latitude last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Image? Microwave still says eyewall replacement.... Um, honestly, it looked good on conventional IR a couple of hours ago and I thought it was starting to intensify again. I may have been wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 ERC complete, absolutely gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Looking at latest IR loops and CWB radar looks like it's jogging more to the NW, gained more latitude last few hours. Seems to wobbling back W again. I think the longer term motion is pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 It's really steadily maintaining this beautiful double-eyewall structure, with a really well-defined moat separating the two. Pretty awesome: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 It's really steadily maintaining this beautiful double-eyewall structure, with a really well-defined moat separating the two. Pretty awesome: 2013-09-21_0952.MOS0.jpg Times like this I wish the various nations of the region would cooperatively maintain a couple of WC-130 type aircraft. It could include Australia, be a joint operation with military partners, and the planes could move between hemispheres depending on the season. I'd love to see a wind graphic through the moat and inner eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Times like this I wish the various nations of the region would cooperatively maintain a couple of WC-130 type aircraft. It could include Australia, be a joint operation with military partners, and the planes could move between hemispheres depending on the season. I'd love to see a wind graphic through the moat and inner eye wall. Yeah, I'm wondering also how it plays out on the ground. I'm pretty sure there'd be distinct double-wind maxima, with a semi-lull between them. The data from Batan Island don't show that-- however, the observations are hourly, so they're temporally too coarse to show cool details like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 There are idiots in the water in Bacay Philippines! http://www.earthcam.com/search/ft_search.php?term=Basco%2C+PHILIPPINES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Cyclone is moving almost due W now-- missing the S tip of Taiwan by a wide distance. The NATL and EPAC suck so badly, I have no choice but to fill the news slots on iCyclone's Facebook page talking about this. It's humiliating to be forced to talk about chinacanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Why are they "idiots"? That's a very manageable surf there far far away for the real action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Eye is back, some flare up on the southwest side - Lets see if it can wrap it around - Mountains of Taiwan seem to be doing some damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Eye is back, some flare up on the southwest side - Lets see if it can wrap it around - Mountains of Taiwan seem to be doing some damage Eyewall replacement is still ongoing.... The typhoon will not strengthen significantly like it did before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Eyewall replacement is still ongoing.... The typhoon will not strengthen significantly like it did before. It's actually forecast to steadily weaken up to landfall in China (or Hong Kong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 It's actually forecast to steadily weaken up to landfall in China (or Hong Kong). I would have to imagine few tropical cyclones intensify significantly in between Taiwan and China, even if they pass in between the Philippines and Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 I would have to imagine few tropical cyclones intensify significantly in between Taiwan and China, even if they pass in between the Philippines and Taiwan. Yeah, although I'm not too familiar with the climo of this region, I can say that I don't recall seeing that scenario occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 The cyclone's definitely not looking as hawt now-- on IR or Taiwan radar. On the latter, you can see the inner eyewall finally starting to "give in" and collapse into the outer one. I think we'll have a single, large eye within 6 hr. (But for the NATL, this would of course be extremely hawt. It's all relative, of course.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Downslopeing and low OHC just destroyed this cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 It seems to be looking a little better in this imagery as it loses the Taiwan influence: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17W/flash-rb-long.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17W/flash-rbtop-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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