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Looks like we are < 12 hours away from ERC

 

 

Yeah, looks like the very early stages of an ERC beginning to come together.  It still potentially has a couple more hours to intensify as the outer rainband has not yet fully encompassed the inner eyewall.  I'm still impressed at how a circulation that a couple of days ago was larger than the entire Gulf of Mexico was able to produce such a tight core.  (Then again Wilma was perhaps an even more dramatic example as it had an even smaller RMW than Usagi, but I digress). 

 

This should bring tingles to even the tightest of tight core snobs (Josh, I'm looking at you :P ):

post-378-0-48409100-1379606061_thumb.jpg

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The euro track is crazy, basically throws it right into Hong Kong and not significantly weaker ether

- GFS also places it near Hong Kong but it interacts with Taiwan and its mountains much more and is therefore significantly weaker.

 

With a storm like this it will come down to how much it wobbles north and south

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i would think the casinos in Macau are made quite solidly from what looks like a cat-2 or cat-3 hit.

 

but looking a bit further back near Guam, most of the models are making that big area into some type of decent typhoon that eventually makes its way east of Japan with help of a large trough coming out of Asia. how big will that one be in Umagi's wake? or do we want to even speculate on that one yet?

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I don't know why people think a Cat 2 or 3 in Hong Kong would be NBD.  I know there are modern office buildings on the main island, but at least back in the day, in the mid 1980s they were apartment buildings that didn't look super-well contructed, not to mention a subway system ( I have a thing about subways, riding between Jim ShaChooey (spelling almost certainly wrong) and the island was a treat).

 

Like saying NYC would be fine in a Cat 3 hurricane because the modern skyscrapers in Manhattan were designed to survive 100 knot winds.

 

Edit:  Tsim Sha Tsui

Master of the Google Fu...

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I don't know why people think a Cat 2 or 3 in Hong Kong would be NBD.  I know there are modern office buildings on the main island, but at least back in the day, in the mid 1980s they were apartment buildings that didn't look super-well contructed, not to mention a subway system ( I have a thing about subways, riding between Jim ShaChooey (spelling almost certainly wrong) and the island was a treat).

 

Like saying NYC would be fine in a Cat 3 hurricane because the modern skyscrapers in Manhattan were designed to survive 100 knot winds.

 

Edit:  Tsim Sha Tsui

Master of the Google Fu...

I am mainly concerned about the rain from this one. Most of the population is on the west side of the island so downsloping should limit the rain to 5-10".  It would be much worse if a storm passed on the north side of the island, that may put 20-30" totals in the populated areas and no city on this planet  (except maybe Machu Picchu) is well constructed for that.

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I am mainly concerned about the rain from this one. Most of the population is on the west side of the island so downsloping should limit the rain to 5-10".  It would be much worse if a storm passed on the north side of the island, that may put 20-30" totals in the populated areas and no city on this planet  (except maybe Machu Picchu) is well constructed for that.

 

The current GFS/Euro as well as JTWC/JMA tracks all bring Usagi just north of the island.

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