Ed Lizard Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 meh, looks like a substantial weakening happening before landfall... The rather sudden weakening of the last couple of hours may be land interaction, descending air off the mountains. I have never been on that side of Luzon, but I got the impression there were big mountains down the middle of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 The rather sudden weakening of the last couple of hours may be land interaction, descending air off the mountains. I have never been on that side of Luzon, but I got the impression there were big mountains down the middle of the island. yeah that could be a factor too; some saying ERC... maybe i was just expecting a Megi-type of landfall considering she hit near where Utor is right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 ERC was my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Yeah, it really started to look like crap in those final hours. Those pinhole-eye structures are always really delicate. Despite the apparent collapse on IR imagery, I'm sure it was very severe on the ground. I know from past experience that IR is deceiving: storms like Jimena 2009 and Jova 2011 were very robust on the ground, despite rather mushy IR presentations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Radar/MW data seems to confirm that the weakening was induced by an ERC (not surprising given the delicate stability of pinhole eyes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 The JTWC's Warning No. 13-- at 21Z-- had the center just offshore with winds of 120 kt, so I guess that's the presumed landfall intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Yeah, it really started to look like crap in those final hours. Those pinhole-eye structures are always really delicate. Despite the apparent collapse on IR imagery, I'm sure it was very severe on the ground. I know from past experience that IR is deceiving: storms like Jimena 2009 and Jova 2011 were very robust on the ground, despite rather mushy IR presentations. Yeah, wind often lags IR appearance, both with respect to strengthening and weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 yeah that could be a factor too; some saying ERC... maybe i was just expecting a Megi-type of landfall considering she hit near where Utor is right now... ERC was my guess Radar/MW data seems to confirm that the weakening was induced by an ERC (not surprising given the delicate stability of pinhole eyes). Yep: Before (near max intensity) After (obvious ERC has commenced) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 still looked pretty good at landfall though... a weather station roughly 20mi northwest of landfall point reported min pressure of 952hPa; hasn't been reporting in about 45mins now so i figure it's gone offline.. here's another look at the landfall; using a radar well to the north (Aparri).. go here for the latest radar images for Northern Luzon... unfortunately, it looks like Baguio has gone offline http://prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tuguegarao/weather/radar-images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 I'll head crossing the border and heading west up the coast of Guangdong this evening to give a shot at intercepting Utor. It's consolidate impressively since exiting Luzon and should be a rather solid hit. JTWC have it at 100kts right now with peak of 115kts expected. Landfall forecasted around 110kts. This truly is a Chinacane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 I'll head crossing the border and heading west up the coast of Guangdong this evening to give a shot at intercepting Utor. It's consolidate impressively since exiting Luzon and should be a rather solid hit. JTWC have it at 100kts right now with peak of 115kts expected. Landfall forecasted around 110kts. This truly is a Chinacane Those Commie police will throw you in the slammer for carryin' a videocam around. Say hi to Dear Leader. (Oh, wait, that's the other Commie country. Sorry.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Those Commie police will throw you in the slammer for carryin' a videocam around. Say hi to Dear Leader. (Oh, wait, that's the other Commie country. Sorry.) Didn't Ferdinand Marcos once take credit for directing a typhoon away from the Philippines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Didn't Ferdinand Marcos once take credit for directing a typhoon away from the Philippines? I think Jerry Falwell prayed Hurricane Gloria away from the Carolinas and towards the heathens of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Didn't Ferdinand Marcos once take credit for directing a typhoon away from the Philippines? Lolz. I didn't know that. He and Imelda were such '80s icons. I think Jerry Falwell prayed Hurricane Gloria away from the Carolinas and towards the heathens of Long Island. Totally remember that. He prayed it away from Virginia Beach, I think. And Long Islanders who received the full force of it were like, "Thanks, azzhole!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Looks like the chinacane is making landfall in China. It seems to have eroded a bit since the last JTWC statement, so I'm guessing like 80 kt or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Just chatted with James. He's in Zhapo, in the eye. He said, "Leading edge offshore winds so nothing too crazy, but fun"-- expects backside to be stronger, given radar and IR presentations. He's in a highrise right on the ocean-- and it's afternoon there, which is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Reading the latest JTWC advisory for TY Utor, they were referencing radar data from Yangjiang, China. I didn't even know China had weather radar, I've never seen it on the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Reading the latest JTWC advisory for TY Utor, they were referencing radar data from Yangjiang, China. I didn't even know China had weather radar, I've never seen it on the internet. they actually have a pretty good network... here's Yangjiang: and here's the rest: http://www.weather.com.cn/static/html/product_ld.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 they actually have a pretty good network... here's Yangjiang: and here's the rest: http://www.weather.com.cn/static/html/product_ld.shtml They have several more days of rain to go with this. Not going to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Just got home after chasing Utor. It was a real butt kicker of a cat 1 with a real nasty sting in its tail. We were positioned perfect on in Zhapo, SW of Yangjiang city. We were originally expecting to get the front right quad however Utor jogged to the right a little exposing us to what turned out to be strongest part of the eyewall, the SW quadrant. We were right in the middle of the eye for about 1.5 hours. The eye was misty like Sanba in Okinawa last year. Shot some pretty crazy Chinacane footage http://youtu.be/RTJeHwsVDiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Just got home after chasing Utor. It was a real butt kicker of a cat 1 with a real nasty sting in its tail. We were positioned perfect on in Zhapo, SW of Yangjiang city. We were originally expecting to get the front right quad however Utor jogged to the right a little exposing us to what turned out to be strongest part of the eyewall, the SW quadrant. We were right in the middle of the eye for about 1.5 hours. The eye was misty like Sanba in Okinawa last year. Shot some pretty crazy Chinacane footage http://youtu.be/RTJeHwsVDiw wow at all the people trying to walk / drive via mopeds. Its like they had no clue a Typhoon was bearing down on them. I'm also stunned by the amount of people driving on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 wow at all the people trying to walk / drive via mopeds. Its like they had no clue a Typhoon was bearing down on them. I'm also stunned by the amount of people driving on the roads. Same, that guy at 1:15 isn't getting his mirror back. It's in Shanghai by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 While certainly not all that interesting from a sensible weather point of view, the models are showing something meteorologically cool for next week. A mixed Rossby-gravity wave emanating from TD 11 is modeled to enhance convection near Taiwan and both the Euro and GFS to varying degrees show a TC possibly forming from it. It's not terribly uncommon for these type of genesis events to occur in the West Pac, but I think modeling it 7 days out probably is pretty rare. could you maybe shed more light on this (or maybe direct a link that could do so).. it does look like you (or the models) are on to something here with two invests that are mildly interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Just got home after chasing Utor. It was a real butt kicker of a cat 1 with a real nasty sting in its tail. We were positioned perfect on in Zhapo, SW of Yangjiang city. We were originally expecting to get the front right quad however Utor jogged to the right a little exposing us to what turned out to be strongest part of the eyewall, the SW quadrant. We were right in the middle of the eye for about 1.5 hours. The eye was misty like Sanba in Okinawa last year. Shot some pretty crazy Chinacane footage http://youtu.be/RTJeHwsVDiw It was so kind of those Commie laborers to throw tin in front of the camera to heighten the drama. Just kidding. It's great footage-- I greatly enjoyed it. Like many, I'm aghast at the stupidity of the people on the street. While I think we can all agree that the extreme Red Alert lockdowns in Western Australia are way over the top, this behavior in China is ridiculous to the other extreme. There's a basic lack of common sense here. Do these people also put their hands on hot stoves and drink floor polish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 could you maybe shed more light on this (or maybe direct a link that could do so).. it does look like you (or the models) are on to something here with two invests that are mildly interesting... Here's the seminal paper on this type of genesis: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/mjd/papers/MRGsubmit.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 The "invest" in the CPac has been a cyclone - and by the looks of it, a reasonably strong one - for hours. Nice outflow, nice CDO. Wonder what the reluctance to classify it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I'm wondering if there can be a fujiwhara interaction between Pewa and CP90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 I just learned about TS Pewa (Central Pac) from a Ryan Maue tweet. He shows the GFDL run for Pewa on his twitter page... ramping it up to 120kt (900mb wind) in a few days. Open ocean, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 The forecast paths for T.D. 12 and 13 resemble planes waiting to take off at a busy airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 The forecast paths for T.D. 12 and 13 resemble planes waiting to take off at a busy airport. Monsoon gyre action FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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