wxmeddler Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 From twitter: "Baleng in Hsinchu (county) is reporting 788 mm (31 inches) of rain since the beginning of the storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 James (Typhoon Hunter) has a video up. Bendy Palms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 The video looks like high end TS force winds to me-the flying debris would be much larger with 90kt gusts. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 The video looks like high end TS force winds to me-the flying debris would be much larger with 90kt gusts. Steve Hi, Steve!! How are you? I was thinking about you the other day, and he's a post from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 Made it safely back to Hong Kong. Soulik made landfall at the WORST possible time for trying to film a TC, around 3am. So by the time it was light and the show was winding down I was totally burnt out and done with filming any more. I was on the extreme southern periphery of the eye and experienced a noticeable lull in winds for about 20 minutes. As usual in Taiwan the back end was more rain than extreme winds due to the mountains taking the punch out of it. From a chasing perspective Soulik was an odd storm but rewarding nonetheless. I was lucky to hole up in the few spots on that stretch of coast which still had power thus I was able to film. Actually the bend palms were filmed in the exact same port I rode out Sinlaku in 2008, now that was a red meat landfall! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZqLHgnaO7k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Now that's a midget swirl The WPAC is one of the most interesting (if not the most interesting) basin on the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 If I try really hard, I can imagine Cimaron trying to get an eye as it made landfall. I do have to try. When the Atlantic and East Pac are on vacation, I do what I can do to stay interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Superstorm that swirl has been "rampaging" across the Pacific for the last 5 days now, amazing and tenacious little thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Tropical storm Jebi in the centre of S China Sea right now, quite a large system bringing squally showers to us in Hong Kong despite being so far away. Seems this will be the aperitif before the main action. Models forecasting 94W for cross Philippines and develop into a tropical storm, may well affect same areas as Jebi (Hainan and S China.) Now what's really got my eye is what the models are showing after 94W. GFS especially showing solid consistency in forming a huge typhoon in about 7 - 10 days. ECMWF on board and other models hinting at this too. If this trend continues wouldn't be surprised to see a major typhoon on our hands end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 The JTWC is showing a Cat-3 chinacane heading for Hong Kong by Day 5. Surprised none o' y'all are talkin' about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 The JTWC is showing a Cat-3 chinacane heading for Hong Kong by Day 5. Surprised none o' y'all are talkin' about this. @ JTWC intensity forecasts. I took a TS into the Leizhou Peninsula this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 While certainly not all that interesting from a sensible weather point of view, the models are showing something meteorologically cool for next week. A mixed Rossby-gravity wave emanating from TD 11 is modeled to enhance convection near Taiwan and both the Euro and GFS to varying degrees show a TC possibly forming from it. It's not terribly uncommon for these type of genesis events to occur in the West Pac, but I think modeling it 7 days out probably is pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 @ JTWC intensity forecasts. I took a TS into the Leizhou Peninsula this morning. Oh, well, excuuuuuuse me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Oh, well, excuuuuuuse me.Why are you slumming it with the Chinacane crowd, anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Why are you slumming it with the Chinacane crowd, anyway? ouch... anyway, surprised to see you conservative with this... you think there's chance of RI while still in PH Sea in the next 36 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 ouch... anyway, surprised to see you conservative with this... you think there's chance of RI while still in PH Sea in the next 36 hours? Yeah, I think if RI happens, it happens before Luzon. Once in the SCS, shear will be moderate to high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 While certainly not all that interesting from a sensible weather point of view, the models are showing something meteorologically cool for next week. A mixed Rossby-gravity wave emanating from TD 11 is modeled to enhance convection near Taiwan and both the Euro and GFS to varying degrees show a TC possibly forming from it. It's not terribly uncommon for these type of genesis events to occur in the West Pac, but I think modeling it 7 days out probably is pretty rare. Ha! I knew there was something a little odd with that depiction. Cool physics going down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Utor is absolutely exploding right now with a formative pinhole eye evident on visible imagery, a well-established outflow pattern, and a cold CDO of -80C cloud tops. At least a Cat 2 typhoon strength now IMO. (JTWC has it assessed as 55kt at 00Z.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Utor is absolutely exploding right now with a formative pinhole eye evident on visible imagery, a well-established outflow pattern, and a cold CDO of -80C cloud tops. At least a Cat 2 typhoon strength now IMO. (JTWC has it assessed as 55kt at 00Z.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Philippines Sea doing what it usually does - hawtest TC real estate on the planet! Yeah, I think if RI happens, it happens before Luzon. Once in the SCS, shear will be moderate to high. Have you got a link to shear forecast? It's looking pretty low in SCS right now and models all blow Utor back up quite impressively once it's crossed Luzon. Now I was mulling over an intercept in Luzon but decided to wait and see what will happen once it enters the SCS. There's a remote chance it could affect HK so I'd hate to be stranded in rural Philippines whilst HK gets clobbered. Besides Utor looks to hit the most intercept unfriendly stretch of coast in the entire basin, no roads within 40km of the coastline and lots of mountains there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Have you got a link to shear forecast?I'm more just interpreting model output. The QPF fields are pretty asymmetric in both the Euro and GFS, which usually happens because shear is more than ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 eye picked up by radar now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 latest AMSU image... looks somewhat better than it did earlier today (tonight WPAC time); could it make a run at Cat 4?? landfall forecast in about 24 hours or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 2013AUG10 223200 4.3 979.4 72.2 4.3 4.3 3.8 MW ON OFF OFF -70.83 -79.22 UNIFRM N/A 52.2 14.43 -126.07 SPRL MTSAT2 27.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Utor looks like it wants to become a Cat 4 just before landfall (currently a 100-kt TY by JTWC)... unfortunately, the radars along the east coast of Luzon are either offline or have horrible blind spots that they're almost useless in this case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 If Utor isn't a Category five, it is certainly a high end Category four. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Worthy of uploaded satellite loops UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.4 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 11 AUG 2013 Time : 090000 UTC Lat : 15:21:05 N Lon : 123:56:14 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.1 / 942.1mb/117.4kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.1 6.2 7.4Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 kmCenter Temp : +3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6CScene Type : EYE Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATIONOcean Basin : WEST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 130kt Super Typhoon now as per JTWC... however, the eye looks ragged and kinda worse than it did about 3 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 130kt Super Typhoon now as per JTWC... however, the eye looks ragged and kinda worse than it did about 3 hours ago... I think the very tiny warm spot, only a pixel or three inside eye surrounded by -80C eyewall is infrared depiction of a 'stadium effect' type eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 meh, looks like a substantial weakening happening before landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.