Typhoon Hunter Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Soulik looking mighty impressive right now, looks like a solid major typhoon. Clearly undergoing rapid intensification. The models, in particular ECMWF go berserk with Soulik, 00z run has it bottoming out at 920hPa with 850hPa level winds at 70m/s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 it's just exploding right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Latest IR for Soulik is pretty nice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Annular Buzzsaw.. awww yeahh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 I think what looks like a band on the South is actually a spiral band, not an outflow channel, so it isn't (IMHO) annular yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Definitely not annular, microwave shows numerous outer bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Definitely not annular, microwave shows numerous outer bands. I looked just on regular satellite product, there is at least one spiral band. I've seen outflow channels that are shaped like spiral bands in a still image, but that wasn't an outflow channel on that loop IIRC, annular storms usually prefer cooler water than 28 or 29º mean, standard deviation, min and max below SST (°C) 26.7 0.7 25.4 28.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Annular or Not... this is a very impressive TC and a likely candidate to become the first super typhoon of the year. You don't get a more textbook outflow presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 James Reynolds @typhoonfury 8m ECMWF 12z bottoms out #Soulik at 918hPa prior to landfall on Taiwan pic.twitter.com/N0KaV6klX6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 For you China cane lovers-here's another shot of TY Soulik. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 on its way to cat5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 on its way to cat5? Certainly looks like a good possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 James Reynolds @typhoonfury 8m ECMWF 12z bottoms out #Soulik at 918hPa prior to landfall on Taiwan pic.twitter.com/N0KaV6klX6 I'm hoping the Typhoon Hunter is on his way to Taiwan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 WooT James Reynolds @typhoonfury 4h Safely in Taiwan! The in depth article on plane crashes didn't make for inspiring inflight reading though pic.twitter.com/uUMMxzPHLt 0Z GFS looks to take center near/just North of Taiwan. Just a touch of erosion in the Northwest corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 JTWC suggesting weakening a result of crossing a cooler patch of ocean, still predicts near 95 knots for landfall in Northern Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Yeah I made it Ed I'm right up in the NE and just sitting put here. Arrived a little earlier than I usually would for a storm. Looks like dry air's really taken a toll Soulik however if it maintains forecast track it should still pack quick a punch if it hits NE Taiwan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 It looks today like the cyclone has recovered a bit from yesterday's meltdown-- looks like the dry air has mixed out and the core is rebuilding. Should be a good, solid hit. Good luck, James! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Admittedly one of the oddest microwave image's I've seen. It's not handling that dry air well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Admittedly one of the oddest microwave image's I've seen. It's not handling that dry air well. Lolz, that is a little weird-looking. It's that WPAC-cinnabun thing. That big, arcing feature is either a really intense feeder band or the beginnings of a big-azz eye. The system looks much better on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Admittedly one of the oddest microwave image's I've seen. It's not handling that dry air well. 20130711.2118.trmm.x.tmi_85h.07WSOULIK.95kts-952mb-230N-1267E.61pc.jpg Its doesn't look that odd to me. The outer eyewall is attempting to get established as the inner eyewall continues to gradually degrade. This is a pretty common microwave pass for many large TCs in the West Pacific undergoing a ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Its doesn't look that odd to me. The outer eyewall is attempting to get established as the inner eyewall continues to gradually degrade. This is a pretty common microwave pass for many large TCs in the West Pacific undergoing a ERC. I think it's an ERC too, but at 200 mi in diameter, that is still a "huge-azz" secondary eye and it will take awhile for it to contract and re-strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Lolz, that is a little weird-looking. It's that WPAC-cinnabun thing. That big, arcing feature is either a really intense feeder band or the beginnings of a big-azz eye. The system looks much better on IR. These large ERC often take a long time to complete, and very large eyewalls are more susceptible to dry air intrusions just owing to the fact they are larger in areal extent and thus more susceptible to vertical wind shear on the outer quadrants of the TC. In this case, there is a little bit of outflow restriction in the NW quadrant of Soulik due to a weak ull on the China coastline and even that touch of vertical wind shear might be enough to keep the storm from being fully symmetrical. Large TCs that peak with a large eye have a very hard time regaining their former glory after undergoing ERC unless the atmospheric conditions are perfect. Isabel in 2003 was a perfect example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I think it's an ERC too, but at 200 mi in diameter, that is still a "huge-azz" secondary eye and it will take awhile for it to contract and re-strengthen. It is a bit unusual, but not unprecedented. Jelawat (2000) was probably the craziest example of a TC starting with a small eye and then post ERC obtaining a massive Annular like appearance. I don't think Soulik will get there based on the time it has left and the aforementioned outflow restrictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 You can also write down 1997's Winnie in that same category. Before: After: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 That Winnie MW image is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 max sustained wind (10-min) so far is 135kph while the max gust is 215kph both recorded in Ishigakijima... min pressure is 957 from Iriomotejima; the eye likely passed within 20km based on radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 max sustained wind (10-min) so far is 135kph while the max gust is 215kph both recorded in Ishigakijima... min pressure is 957 from Iriomotejima; the eye likely passed within 20km based on radar... Km/hr is like talking in Swahili on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Km/hr is like talking in Swahili on this board. I can handle meters/second, double that and it is very close to wind speed in knots. Anyway, http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_windconvert says 135 k/hr is 84 mph. I'm guessing the loss of the eye and the cooling cloud tops is West winds South of the center riding up the mountains. I'd guess the rainfall, even for a TC, is rather intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 I can handle meters/second, double that and it is very close to wind speed in knots. Anyway, http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_windconvert says 135 k/hr is 84 mph. I'm guessing the loss of the eye and the cooling cloud tops is West winds South of the center riding up the mountains. I'd guess the rainfall, even for a TC, is rather intense. Thanks for posting the loop. Yeah, it looks like a combo of dry air and inflow from the mountains were the culprits. The JTWC's call of 80 kt near landfall seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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