blazess556 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Tokyo (RJTT) reported sustained winds at 43 kts, gusting to 63 kts at 7:00 am. The heaviest rains and strongest winds look to have passed. There was also an 82kt (94mph) gust recorded at Tateyama, Japan (RJTE) at 6:22 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Tokyo (RJTT) reported sustained winds at 43 kts, gusting to 63 kts at 7:00 am. The heaviest rains and strongest winds look to have passed. There was also an 82kt (94mph) gust recorded at Tateyama, Japan (RJTE) at 6:22 am. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 a station in Miyagi Prefecture recorded a 10-min sustained wind of 60kt for the past two hours... meanwhile, a station in the Izu Islands saw a gust of 90kt... a min pressure of 953hPa was recorded in Shizuoka Prefecture earlier this morning (JST)... those are the highest numbers that i could find at the moment.. and oh, Oshima Island saw 820mm of rainfall (32in.) in the past 12 hours which is usually a month's worth of rain in the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 a station in Miyagi Prefecture recorded a 10-min sustained wind of 60kt for the past two hours... meanwhile, a station in the Izu Islands saw a gust of 90kt... a min pressure of 953hPa was recorded in Shizuoka Prefecture earlier this morning (JST)... those are the highest numbers that i could find at the moment.. and oh, Oshima Island saw 820mm of rainfall (32in.) in the past 12 hours which is usually a month's worth of rain in the area.. That's insane! 2.66" per hour average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 26W is available on PGUA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 That's insane! 1.33" per hour average. lol, indeed... the station (Oshima Island; 74amsl) actually recorded 118mm (4.6in) in one hour! EDIT: here's a link to the station obs across Japan... http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas/000.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 It has passed without any reported trouble at Fukushima. That is a relief beyond that which can be stated with words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 lol, indeed... the station (Oshima Island; 74amsl) actually recorded 118mm (4.6in) in one hour! EDIT: here's a link to the station obs across Japan... http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas/000.html Actually I had to fix that. I thought you said in 24 hours. I don't think 4.6"/hr is possible in the mid-latitudes. Probably something that is only possible with tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Unfortunately that huge rain event on Oshima island looks to have triggered a massive flash flood with 13 deaths reported so far, a huge tragedy for what is likely a small community. http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0000727274 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Just heard that 50,000 customers are without power in Japan. Mostly southern prefectures. Saw some pictures of mud and rock slides. http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2013/1016/Typhoon-Wipha-triggers-mudslide-leaving-17-dead-in-Japan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Next Typhoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Next Typhoon? newPacificstorm.png More like current typhoon! Let's see how long it takes for JWTC to pick up on the RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 More like current typhoon! Let's see how long it takes for JWTC to pick up on the RI. Should have said, next typhoon to recurve into Japan! lol Francisco looking pretty healthy! EURO at 12z Sunday. Sure has a large circulation wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 32+ inches of rain in 24 hrs. This set a new 6hr rainfall total record for Japan of 21.6 inches which lead to the deadly flooding. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/date/2013/10/15 http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/heavy_rain/p06h/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Once in a decade Typhoon was the news headline in Japan for Wipha. How about twice in a week? Francisco current model progs take it just west of Wipha as yet another very large transitioning to ET Typhoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 12z EURO swings Francisco further west. 18z GFS swings Francisco even further west - almost into the Sea of Japan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Looks like more "fun" for Japan down the road. Supposed to peak at 125 knots, but with the upper environment, the amount of OHC over the next 96 hours, and the fact that the system is already at 70 knots, I would almost expect Francisco to become a STY. Satellite presentation already shows a tightly wound CDO and the latest TRMM pass has a nice warm eye. Should be interesting to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 looks anorexic, lol... is it because of dry air or are we expecting the convection to gradually expand?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 looks anorexic, lol... is it because of dry air or are we expecting the convection to gradually expand?? Looks very moist around the system. Probably just organizing still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Diurnal minimum, the system is embedded in a large region of very high precipitable water. The inner core structure remains healthy. I agree this is a likely STY candidate, and will ultimately exceed Wipha in max intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 0z GFS run. Getting Francisco down to sub 964mb level early next week. Landfall southern Kyushu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 0z GFS run. Getting Francisco down to sub 964mb level early next week. Landfall southern Kyushu. francisco4_gfs.png Francisco_landfall.png Even the T574 ~27 km resolution GFS pretty much looks like a textbook hurricane on IR. Not often you see such an impressive signature from a relatively course global model. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013101700/gfsfull_ir_wpac_25.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 One of these cases where you wish PGUA sent out Level II data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 12z GFS, Francisco really rakes Okinawa. This run looks like a worse case scenario with the typhoon going right over Japan length-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Another radar loop of Francisco as it strengthens west of Guam. Should reach Cat 4 and possibly Cat 5 status with warm SST, low shear environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Nice loop Blaze! Wow, 12z EURO bombs this thing out at about 940mb! Hour 168 is missing on wunderground, but I don't think it hits the coast directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 12z GFS has this significantly impacting Japan while as its transitioning into an ET cyclone. Gotta say, the intensity forecast for this one was pretty cut and dry. Completely different from any Atlantic system this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Francisco is looking really healthy today! 12z EURO has this down to a 928mb low by Tuesday. misses Japan though. GFS does hit Japan though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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