TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Looks nice with a small but defined eye. Spiral banding is great as well. However, it's evident on conventional satellite imagery that a tongue of dry air is attempting to wrap into the core. This entrainment process may be aided by some modest easterly shear...not noticing much outflow on the east side of the storm compared to the west. Assuming it doesn't allow that dry air to enter the core, this could become a decently strong cyclone. 964mb on the 0z GFS prior to landfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Looking pretty good. Wutip must have fought off the dry air pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 it certainly has... latest radar from the Paracel Islands looking more and more impressive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Wow-- looks awesome! Would love to chase that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 That radar shot looks pretty hot. Vietnam is in for a solid typhoon, bordering on major status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 From the Hong Kong Observatory. http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/intersat/mtsat/satpic_s_vis.shtml From weather underground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Eye temperature is warming rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Pretty awesome sat shot TropicalAnalyst - with the overshooting tops to the west of the eye! Somewhere on the central Vietnam Coast is in for a rough ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Pretty awesome sat shot TropicalAnalyst - with the overshooting tops to the west of the eye! Somewhere on the central Vietnam Coast is in for a rough ride. Yep. New frame is in -- could pass as a Category 3-equivalent. It's a solid Category-2 equivalent at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 It's certainly way stronger than what the current JTWC package says. They seem to be running behind with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Yeah this isn't a cat 1 anymore! There's definitely some populated areas where Wutip is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 looks like a new eyewall is taking over?? the eye is pretty small from the start anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 It's certainly way stronger than what the current JTWC package says. They seem to be running behind with this one. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt20W.html Raw T 5.9 ADJT 4.4 Final T 4.1. They put a .5T per hour restriction on it also. I don't know if this is the logic for dropping the T5.8 to a T4.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Since when do typhoons intensify in that part of the South China Sea??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Can someone send a link to the SCS radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Can someone send a link to the SCS radar? Here it is. http://www.weather.com.cn/html/radar/JC_RADAR_AZ9071_JB.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Here it is. http://www.weather.com.cn/html/radar/JC_RADAR_AZ9071_JB.shtml Woah, nice eyewall. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Wicked eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 45 dbz+ has wrapped all the way around now. Reduced down a bit to the north. South eye wall screaming upward to 60dbz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 The radar is awesome and this is a really hawt cyclone. One thing to point out, though: the China and Taiwan radars use a color scale that's similar to ours but not the same-- meaning their reds aren't the same as our reds. I think much lower reflectivity gets the red color on theirs, so that to our eyes, their radar shots look a little hawter than they are. But, again, this is not to take away from what is obviously an awesome system that I sure as hell would be thrilled to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt20W.html Raw T 5.9 ADJT 4.4 Final T 4.1. They put a .5T per hour restriction on it also. I don't know if this is the logic for dropping the T5.8 to a T4.1. I don't know exactly how the ADT works, but until a well defined eye becomes apparent on IR, I think ADT will low ball WuTip. UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.5 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 29 SEP 2013 Time : 043000 UTC Lat : 16:44:01 N Lon : 111:50:49 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.4 / 974.6mb/ 74.6kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.3 4.2 4.2 Center Temp : -62.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 87km - Environmental MSLP : 1005mb Satellite Name : MTSAT2 Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.5 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Looking at that loop, it looks like it deteriorates slightly in the last few frames-- that pinhole eye becomes less distinct. Could be normal fluctuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Looking at that loop, it looks like it deteriorates slightly in the last few frames-- that pinhole eye becomes less distinct. Could be normal fluctuations. The storm is in the early stages of an ERC based on both radar and microwave imagery. Its probably in the 100 knot range right now, but I don't think we will see any additional intensification until the internal structure stabilizes again. Yes the reflectivity looks nice but provides no direct assessment of how strong the winds are without doppler capabilities (something that seems to be absent with most of these radars in the eastern hemisphere). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Taiwan has a decent Doppler network but I can't remember how to access it, I'll have a dig around and see what I can find. Invest 95W looking interesting especially given what Euro and UKMET are showing, a hard hook to the left. JMA warning this as a 30kts TD right now and JTWC have a TCFA up. I would love this to get named Sepat and be chaseable - 2007's Sepat was an immense cat 5 super typhoon which went on to hit central Taiwan as a cat 3. I was in the northern eyewall and got raked pretty hard hence I'm fond of the name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Trying to intensify on approach -- has about 2 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 At least on the last update it was at 105mph, It's going to come ashore near Dong Hoi. ...or a tad north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 lol, talk about a model consensus for TS Fitow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 lol, talk about a model consensus for TS Fitow... The one good thing, my understanding is that the GFDN has one less nested grod than the GFDL, and is initialized and bounded by the NoGAPS. OK, I assume now it is intialized by the NavGem, but from watching the sad season in the Atlantic, the Canadian would be a better model for initializing and bounding a TC model. And Josh still has plenty of time, and is willing to island hop. Now, I am sure he hopes Fitow is better looking by the time it makes landfall, although even your sloppy cyclones still pulling off -80ºC cloud tops is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 23W might wind up being an intense, yet small system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Wipha is going to be a monster sized Typhoon dwarfing Phailn in shear bulk but not as intense. A near threat to Japan as modeling has trended west, close to becoming a real threat. at sea IKE during max intensity rivals Katrina for sure. Luckily it appears it will decrease significantly in intensity before it threatens Japan. Definitely something to watch. Down the long road this becomes an Alaskan winter storm in the Bering sea. Attached is the IKE potential versus Katrina , much more impressive than Phailin was bulk wise. Also the Euro and GFS model progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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