Ground Scouring Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I might as well start this thread since someone has just broached the taboo on starting tropical threads under names other than Josh's or Adam's. Peak season is some months away, but past experience shows that neutral-warm ENSO years with a slow-moving MJO centered in this region can often produce some of the most intense storms. I think we will see at least four +140-kt cyclones with a tendency to track more to the NE this year, i.e. toward the Ryukyus and Japanese islands, as in 2004. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 LOL. By all means, you can have the WPAC thread. I'm not nearly as possessive of ownership of seasonal threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 'Tis a shame the storm 'Yagi' apparently won't be as cool sounding as the name 'Yagi'. B. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED IN THE NEXT 12HOURS AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THEWESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE. GENERAL INTENSIFICATION ISFORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAIN FAVORABLE, ALLOWING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF50 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTEDTO MODIFY AND BEGIN TO RE-ORIENT DUE TO MIDLATITUDE INTERACTION.THIS WILL DRIVE TD 03W ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARDS JAPANTHROUGH TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY AFTER TAU 48, INTENSITIES WILL BEGIN TODROP AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME UNFAVORABLE (<26 DEGREESCELSIUS) NEAR LATITUDE 25N, AND VWS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. DYNAMICMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND LENDS TOHIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 Hello all! My first post here. I'm based in Hong Kong and have an (un)healthy interest in typhoons! Yagi has been lurking south of Tokyo for a few days as an impressive looking yet naked swirl. Looks like Invest 91W will be the next play maker out here with model consensus developing it into the 4th named storm next week and taking it in the general direction of Taiwan or Okinawa. Cheers, James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 I might as well start this thread since someone has just broached the taboo on starting tropical threads under names other than Josh's or Adam's. Peak season is some months away, but past experience shows that neutral-warm ENSO years with a slow-moving MJO centered in this region can often produce some of the most intense storms. I think we will see at least four +140-kt cyclones with a tendency to track more to the NE this year, i.e. toward the Ryukyus and Japanese islands, as in 2004. Thoughts? Actually, I started a WPAC thread with TD 01W in January but it got ost in the scroll Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Hello all! My first post here. I'm based in Hong Kong and have an (un)healthy interest in typhoons! Yagi has been lurking south of Tokyo for a few days as an impressive looking yet naked swirl. Looks like Invest 91W will be the next play maker out here with model consensus developing it into the 4th named storm next week and taking it in the general direction of Taiwan or Okinawa. Cheers, James Got videos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Is this your work? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4AGwcLbr5w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 yeah, that should be his.. anyway, welcome to the forum James!! looks like we got another system forming, just east of the PH (91W)... just a TCFA from JTWC although JMA already up to a TD... models not so bullish though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Is this your work? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4AGwcLbr5w Yes, it's the same charlatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Hush Josh - and thanks for the welcome Patrick! Yes Ed that's my work and I've got plenty more videos here - http://www.youtube.com/user/TyphoonHunter 91W was designated a warned tropical depression overnight by JMA and is expected to be named within the next 24 hours. Looks like it will blow through the southern Ryuku islands over the next few days. Model consensus quite tight on this one. Next name is Leepi contributed by Laos and is "the most beautiful waterfall in S Laos..." random! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 yeah, that should be his.. anyway, welcome to the forum James!! looks like we got another system forming, just east of the PH (91W)... just a TCFA from JTWC although JMA already up to a TD... models not so bullish though... Kadena is at its first TCOOR 3 of 2013... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Welcome, James! Looking forward to your contributions to these threads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 Has there been a red meat Westpac storm I missed this year? JTWC & JMA keeps Leepi a TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 Nope. We're currently at the 8th latest date for a TY to form in the WPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 Invest 94W in S China Sea looking impressive right now, curved banding starting to appear and very deep convection. Model consensus does develop this system over the next few days so I wouldn't be surprised to see TS Bebinca form out of this. It could bring some stormy weather to Hong Kong this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Nope. We're currently at the 8th latest date for a TY to form in the WPAC. Poor chinacane lovers! I hope they get somethin' this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Well Bebinca never won the battle against shear, however it's not unusual to see sheared systems in the S China Sea in June like Bebinca. This storm actually reminds me a lot of recent systems such as tropical storm Nangka in 09, Haima and Sarika in 2011 and Doksuri last year. Won't be long before the shear relaxes and the threat of "red meat" tropical systems exists in the SCS ie. Vicente last July. Also of interest was the west shift in the modelling and forecasts for Bebinca. I've noticed this happen a lot in the past (models underestimating the strength of the ridge?) and will be interesting to see if this occurs with other storms near East Asian landmass this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Nope. We're currently at the 8th latest date for a TY to form in the WPAC. what's the latest? it's kinda quiet here, yeah it's only late June, but last year we already had 2 typhoons (one was a STY) and it doesn't look like there's gonna be much activity in the coming week or so... getting antsy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Latest was August 2, 1998. We've still got a ways to go for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 looks like Rumbia is trying to develop an eye based on this MWI... still has about 12 hours or so before landfall, could this be our first typhoon of the year?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Textbook China-Cane Rapid Intensification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 I'm going to take a page out of Josh's book and say that right there is hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 JTWC upgrades to TY while JMA only up to STS (50kt)... anyway, latest radar from Hainan showing the eye approaching from the southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Just don't see -80C tops this side of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2013/07/02/rumbia-weakening-over-land/ I missed it, was it a TY at landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 i don't think so, JTWC downgraded it to 60kt-TS before landfall... technically though, it wasn't really a TY 'cause JMA never upgraded it... i was able to see the wind reports from CMA Website before but i could no longer find it, and my chinese isn't exactly great lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Tropical storm Soulik just formed and looks like it could be the first typhoon of the season. Current forecast tracks suggest a classic straight runner into Taiwan or the Ryuku islands with a strong ridge of high pressure in place. The 00z model runs (24 hours ago) flipped a switch and went from originally forecasting a weak TS into blowing Soulik up into a very strong storm (especially ECMWF and GFS.) I'm confident this could become a very strong typhoon later in the week. Interesting it appeared to form from an upper level low out near Wake island, which isn't typically something you see out here in Wpac. Going to be an interesting one to track this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 yup, already starting to show an eye although MWI isn't showing a closed eyewall yet... microwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 I'd like the eye like feature a little deeper into the convection. But I can't complain. What is and isn't chase territory around there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Terrain is the biggest limiting factor for chasing in this region with portions of Taiwan's east coast and NE Luzon, Philippines being extremely mountainous. China's a pain in the butt with its restrictions on hiring cars as a foreigner but it's doable (I've chased there before.) Other than that everywhere's game with the exception of N Korea of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.