phil882 Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Henriette looks awesome now, I hesitate to use the word but she looks annular. She's just a donut of convection. Might have a bit too much banding to actually be annular but the presentation on infrared looks awesome. Also looking at water vapor it seems like she's headed into a pretty moist environment so while she's probably peaked I'm curious to see how quickly she will fall apart. The eye would have to be much clearer for the system to be considered annular... minus 30-20C temperatures won't cut it, you typically need +10C and beyond. Its appearance is more akin to a midget TC currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 8, 2013 Author Share Posted August 8, 2013 Henriette looking slightly less symmetric now. Could be under the influence of some increasing southerly shear and what should be a gradual weakening phase the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Henriette is collapsing and its low/mid-level centers are decoupling as I speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Well, we now have 92E and 93E. 93E looks to past south of Hawaii, but 92E could come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 I'm not a big student of the East Pac, but it seems an unusual number of storms have survived to the CPHC area of responsibility. Henriette disco even holds out chance it crosses the dateline as an intact TC, although dissipation is forecast. When was the last season with a similar seasonal ENSO state to have so many low latitude long lived East Pac systems? Also a small amount of weeniesm for September when there is a better chance for a trough to capture a system well South of Hawaii ala Iniki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 There are two systems in the Central Pacific labeled as a high probability of development, been quite a while since that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Better looking than anything in the Atlantic all year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Can't believe the NATL and EPAC seasons are such snoozers, we're actually reduced to talking about CPAC lemons. This is how far we've sunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Can't believe the NATL and EPAC seasons are such snoozers, we're actually reduced to talking about CPAC lemons. This is how far we've sunk.A new low, really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 A new low, really Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 A new low, really Omg, were you tryin' to slip a funny little pun by me?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 CPAC has really been cranking it this season. CPHC must be happy they have something to do for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 CPAC has really been cranking it this season. CPHC must be happy they have something to do for once. If I am right, the CPHC is essentially the Honolulu NWSFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Yeah. Euro has a microcane in the gulf of CA day 6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 I'm not a big student of the East Pac, but it seems an unusual number of storms have survived to the CPHC area of responsibility. Henriette disco even holds out chance it crosses the dateline as an intact TC, although dissipation is forecast. When was the last season with a similar seasonal ENSO state to have so many low latitude long lived East Pac systems? Also a small amount of weeniesm for September when there is a better chance for a trough to capture a system well South of Hawaii ala Iniki. 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Euro has a microcane in the gulf of CA day 6-7 GFS keeps it east of the penisula. Well, it has Ivo east, and Juliete slightly more west, so two decent impact-storms possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 90C in the Central Pacific near Pewa has been given a Dvorak T number of 2.5 by SSD, which is equivalent to a tropical storm, but in the latest tropical weather outlook, CPHC gives it a 10% chance of developing. On the satellite, it certainly looks better than a '10% system'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 18, 2013 Author Share Posted August 18, 2013 90C in the Central Pacific near Pewa has been given a Dvorak T number of 2.5 by SSD, which is equivalent to a tropical storm, but in the latest tropical weather outlook, CPHC gives it a 10% chance of developing. On the satellite, it certainly looks better than a '10% system'. 90C has vigorous convection, fairly strong surface winds, and even a well-defined mid-level circulation, but the surface circulation is not closed: See TS Pewa, also in the central Pacific, by comparison (far lower-left corner): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 90C has vigorous convection, fairly strong surface winds, and even a well-defined mid-level circulation, but the surface circulation is not closed: WMBas4.png See TS Pewa, also in the central Pacific, by comparison (far lower-left corner): WMBas4_2.png Interesting that ASCAT doesn't depict a closed circulation, because it was definately closed yesterday when the convection was more poorly organized, and there are some rather suggestive 37 GHz Microwave Imagery with some hints of a mid-level eye on some of the 85 Ghz scans... I get concerned with using ASCAT imagery when there is a bunch of convection ongoing (directional contamination is just as big of a problem as magnitude contamination) and I think this might be one of those times the ASCAT might not be seeing the full picture. Note that you also see this with Pewa somewhat (there are some easterly wind vectors that seem to be clearly south of the llc... there's the rain contamination) In any event, 90C certainly deserves more than the negligent 20% that the CPHC is giving it currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Also... both the WPAC and CPAC are a complete mess convectively right now... between the Monsoon Gyre associated with TD12W and TD13W and the ITCZ chaos south of Hawaii, its a very active time in the Pacific tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Euro has a microcane in the gulf of CA day 6-7 Hey, thanks, man! I'd actually stopped checking the models, so I wouldn't have known about this if I hadn't read your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 18, 2013 Author Share Posted August 18, 2013 Interesting that ASCAT doesn't depict a closed circulation, because it was definately closed yesterday when the convection was more poorly organized, and there are some rather suggestive 37 GHz Microwave Imagery with some hints of a mid-level eye on some of the 85 Ghz scans... I get concerned with using ASCAT imagery when there is a bunch of convection ongoing (directional contamination is just as big of a problem as magnitude contamination) and I think this might be one of those times the ASCAT might not be seeing the full picture. Note that you also see this with Pewa somewhat (there are some easterly wind vectors that seem to be clearly south of the llc... there's the rain contamination) In any event, 90C certainly deserves more than the negligent 20% that the CPHC is giving it currently. Yeah, good points about the possible rain contamination. Even if there wasn't a closed surface circulation, vigorous convection symmetrically-located about a robust mid-level circulation and vertically stacked over a surface trough should warrant more than a 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Talk about an impressive signature for a disturbance with a 20% chance of development. I'm stunned ASCAT continues to depict a trough axis. 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough located about 1120 miles west southwest of Lihue, Hawaii are moving westward at 10 to 15 mph. Little significant development of this system is expected due to its close proximity to the outflow from tropical storm Pewa, which crossed the dateline yesterday and has been creating unfavorable winds aloft above the system. This system has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Hey, thanks, man! I'd actually stopped checking the models, so I wouldn't have known about this if I hadn't read your post. GFS has been of and on about a few days ago, it showed a hurricane hitting Baja around Labor Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 GFS has been of and on about a few days ago, it showed a hurricane hitting Baja around Labor Day weekend. Wow, totally missed that. Well, now I'm keeping an eye on the area-- especially with that new lemon that's supposed to move NW and then NNW, which is a pretty-cool trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Well, apprently, per the ATCF, we have Unala, though I find it hard to belive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Well, apprently, per the ATCF, we have Unala, though I find it hard to belive. Looks like ASCAT didn't do a very well job depicting the tight llc that was underneath the convection earlier. CPHC basically saying D'oh! WTPA45 PHFO 190300TCDCP5 TROPICAL STORM UNALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022013 500 PM HST SUN AUG 18 2013 GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 2330Z AND A 0020Z ASCAT PASS DEMONSTRATED THAT THE SUSPECT AREA FORMERLY KNOWN AS INVEST 90C WAS ACTUALLY TROPICAL STORM UNALA. ASCAT SHOWED A SHARP TROUGH WITH A RAGGED 30 NM SWATH OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...BUT NO CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 2330Z SHOWED A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...POPPING OUT TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO DATA SETS COMPELLED US TO UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM IN SHORT ORDER. INITIAL STRENGTH IS SET AT 35 KT BASED MAINLY ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. FIXES FROM CPHC AND JTWC INDICATED 30 KT STRENGTH...WHILE SAB ALONE HAD THIS SYSTEM STRONGER AT 35 KT. THERE WERE A FEW STRONGER WIND BARBS WITHIN THE ASCAT PASS...BUT WITH THE EMERGENCE OF THE LLCC IT IS LIKELY THIS SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PAST ITS PEAK...MAKING 35 KT SEEM REASONABLE. SHIPS SLOWLY STRENGTHENS UNALA THROUGH 120 HOURS...MAKING IT A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM AT THE END OF 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...INTERFERENCE FROM TROPICAL STORM PEWA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT. SHIPS SEEMS TO PARAMETERIZE THIS BY HAVING UNALA PASS THROUGH RATHER BRUTAL SHEAR BEYOND 12 HOURS...BUT FAILS TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM APPROPRIATELY. WE WILL KEEP UNALA AT MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN WEAKEN IT AFTERWARD AS A NOD TO THE FORECAST SHEAR. INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST AT 18 KT ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY IN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIMEFRAME AS UNALA BEGINS TO GAIN LATITUDE ALONG THE WESTERN LIMB OF THE RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED IN A SIMILAR MANNER...BUT WITH A QUICKER SWING TO THE NORTH. INITIAL MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY OF PEWA KEEPS THE FORECAST TRACK WITHIN THE LEFT HALF OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 17.1N 178.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 178.9E 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.6N 175.3E 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 18.4N 172.1E 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 19.9N 169.0E 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 24.0N 163.9E 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 29.5N 160.6E 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 34.9N 158.8E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $ FORECASTER POWELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 GFS brings Ivo more at sea than past runs. We'll see about Juliette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 90C in the Central Pacific near Pewa has been given a Dvorak T number of 2.5 by SSD, which is equivalent to a tropical storm, but in the latest tropical weather outlook, CPHC gives it a 10% chance of developing. On the satellite, it certainly looks better than a '10% system'. I guess I was right after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 19, 2013 Author Share Posted August 19, 2013 I guess I was right after all. Yup. You deserve your gold star for the day. In the absence of recon, all we can do is make the best of the tools we have available, which in this case wasn't enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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