yoda Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 When is the last time a TS struck Hawaii? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 When is the last time a TS struck Hawaii? I don't know, but Cat 4 daytime landfalls in 1992 and subsequent TV documentaries, and the invention of YouTube, got my hopes so high. Takes a perfect path to get anything beyond a minimal TS to the Aloha State. 1992 was also a warn ENSO year. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zye2IyVNbjo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MY4pzeO-7XU Back to Flossie FLOSSIE REMAINS ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...WITH THELATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 285/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE WEAKENING STORM NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.0N 135.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 17.6N 138.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.4N 141.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 19.5N 147.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 19.8N 153.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 20.0N 160.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 When is the last time a TS struck Hawaii? 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Looks like we got ourselves a mid-level eye... might push the storm close to hurricane intensity as the dry air continues to be kept at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Don't remember the last time the NHC had an 'inland' for the discussion forecast points for an E-PAC storm related to Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Good to have *something* to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Per Wiki, a WC-130J has 300 miles more range than the distance from MCAS Miramar to Hickam AFB. Not a lot of room for error, but doable. Not on the POD from Friday, but with a potential 40 mph storm bearing down on Hilo, well, I'd love me some Pacific HDOBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Flossie has a real shot at hitting Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Don't remember the last time the NHC had an 'inland' for the discussion forecast points for an E-PAC storm related to Hawaii. Felicia 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 I checked the 00Z Hilo sounding and you can see the mid-level dry air with the RH at 802 mb at 13%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 May not just be a minimal 35 knot tropical storm on the Big Island after all. Could be 40 to 45 knots per CPHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Looking worse and worse for Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Looking worse and worse for Hawaii. Yes, they might get 40, maybe 45mph winds! Oh noes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Yes, they might get 40, maybe 45mph winds! Oh noes! At this rate, they will get 50-65. Even higher on the high terrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 FIM is interesting in general for the East Pac. All fish storms except Flossie, which would be a fish if not for a mantle plume and plate tectonics. But then every storm is a fish or not a fish based on geology... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Cool graphic. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Some cloud tops now at -70oC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 What a bazarro outflow pattern from Flossie, where the 200 hPa outflow from the storm is being stretched NE/SW. After experiencing weak southerly shear for the last few days, the wind shear vector is shifting back out of the north. This should be the kiss of death as much more stable air gets advected into the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Last couple of FIM-9 runs, cool to animate, can even see an eye feature in 10 meter East Pac winds. Lead system looks close enough to shear potential trailing system, perhaps, however, trailing system can weaken heights behind lead system (Hurricane Gil?) enough to allow it to track towards Hawaii. Of course, SSTs are marginal to begin with, and Flossie (what a cool 1950s style name) won't do any favors to any systems following in its footsteps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Flossie radar hotlink and uploaded. Hotlink will change, but I think long range radar starting to pick up Flossie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Flossie radar hotlink and uploaded. Hotlink will change, but I think long range radar starting to pick up Flossie... TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 Issued: 500 AM HST MON JUL 29 2013 Flossie weakening as it approaches main Hawaiian islands SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION: 20.5N 153.5W ABOUT 120 MI: 190 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 290 MI: 465 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH: 75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH: 26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 MB or 29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY A tropical storm warning has been issued for Kauai and Niihau. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR: *HAWAII COUNTY *MAUI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, MOLOKAI, LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE *OAHU *KAUAI AND NIIHAU A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 At this rate, they will get 50-65. Even higher on the high terrain Nope. I think they may need to skip a night on Mauna Kea though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Annoying time for the Pacific Regional NOAA weather server to go on strike... Just checking local Hawaii radar, looks like half a storm, with the North and West quadrants dry, but precip on radar South and East quads. EDIT TO ADD SATELLITE This would explain the radar presentation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 GFS indicating a potential string of pearls to develop- could be a pretty active period manifesting over the East Pac in a week. Times well with an MJO pulse pushing across the region... could be onto something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 All fish food. Ugh. Bored out of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Meh... avn0.jpg One thing kind of cool watching TWC briefly (they had Jim Cantore in Hilo), the shared storm, the MLC East of Hilo was a big blob of rain on radar with clear cyclonic rotation, while small showers were rotating around the LLC then far to the Northwest, so little showers were headed Northeast into the MLC blow moving almost 180 degrees different than rotation of the blob. I think they said Hilo has never had sustained tropical storm force winds from a TC, and I don't think that changed yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 One thing kind of cool watching TWC briefly (they had Jim Cantore in Hilo), the shared storm, the MLC East of Hilo was a big blob of rain on radar with clear cyclonic rotation, while small showers were rotating around the LLC then far to the Northwest, so little showers were headed Northeast into the MLC blow moving almost 180 degrees different than rotation of the blob. I think they said Hilo has never had sustained tropical storm force winds from a TC, and I don't think that changed yesterday Correct. Their maximum sustained wind speed came in at 26 mph (23 kt), with a maximum gust of 38 mph (33 kt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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