East Pacific Hurricane Season 2013

[HurricaneJosh]

Noice.

[Ed Lizard]

Noice.

Sadly, models aren't too enthusiastic, and it is already far enough West if it did develop it would have to recurve sharply to be a chase target (not corss sub 26º waters)

 

However, I will post TCHP maps offshore the Mexico Gulf Coast, models may not be over-enthusiastic on the Day 10-ish Gulf system, but it won't be because TCHP isn't pretty decent for mid-June.

 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It doesn't look half bad. Wind shear is a moderate 10-20 knots, and dry air lurks nearby, but neither are really completely unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Has a nice surface reflection as well. Maybe we get an invest.

 

[Srain]

Now 93 E

[Srain]

Over the past couple of days, the Globals have been fairly consistent in developing tropical cyclone in the EPAC. The GFS and Euro both suggest a general NW to NNW motion with the Euro hinting a possible approach to Cabo San Lucas in about 8-10 days.

 

 

[am19psu]

I agree something will form, but highly doubt it comes anywhere near land

[HurricaneJosh]

[Mike.Ventrice]

 

Strong CCKW, superimposed with an active MJO signal will be pushing across the East Pac during that time- looks good for genesis.

 

[yoda]

18z GFS is loltastic

[Ed Lizard]

GFS Ensembles may be sniffing something out in the EastPac end of next week...

[yoda]

^ Probably cause of this silliness which showed up again on the 00z run of the GFS -- https://twitter.com/CodyFields82/status/347570415578796032/photo/1

[icebreaker5221]

^ Probably cause of this silliness which showed up again on the 00z run of the GFS -- https://twitter.com/CodyFields82/status/347570415578796032/photo/1

 

 

Other way around.  The GFS is doing something silly despite the fact that there is a legitimate threat of a TC.  It's well-represented in all the major models and their ensembles now.  The NAVGEM ensemble (FNMOC) is probably the least aggressive at this time, but still has genesis in ~80% of its members.  (The only reason the composite doesn't have a higher maximum percentage is because of slight positional differences of the maximum genesis probabilities across ensemble suites). 

 

 

[phil882]

I don't think the operational GFS is necessarily off base here. With the forth-coming active phase of the MJO combined with a progressing CCKW, we likely will see a very active corridor of convection in the EPAC. Considering we already have a few budding impulses that are oriented along the ITCZ, its entirely plausible to see one or multiple episodes of TCG in close proximity in the next few days.

 

source: http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/

 

 

The main issue here is that the mid-level ridging over the East and Central Pacific is rather weak, which will keep current disturbance b/w 110-115W from moving too quickly to the west (if at all!). Meanwhile, under the stronger portion of the ridge over CA, a second disturbance lies at 95-100W that is under the stronger mid-level ridge oriented over Central America (CA). If both of these disturbances develop, its likely they will actually decrease in longitude from each other, which opens up the potential for binary interaction like the recent runs of the GFS are suggesting.

 

source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/

 

[icebreaker5221]

I don't think the operational GFS is necessarily off base here. With the forth-coming active phase of the MJO combined with a progressing CCKW, we likely will see a very active corridor of convection in the EPAC. Considering we already have a few budding impulses that are oriented along the ITCZ, its entirely plausible to see one or multiple episodes of TCG in close proximity in the next few days.

 

source: http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/

 

 

The main issue here is that the mid-level ridging over the East and Central Pacific is rather weak, which will keep current disturbance b/w 110-115W from moving too quickly to the west (if at all!). Meanwhile, under the stronger portion of the ridge over CA, a second disturbance lies at 95-100W that is under the stronger mid-level ridge oriented over Central America (CA). If both of these disturbances develop, its likely they will actually decrease in longitude from each other, which opens up the potential for binary interaction like the recent runs of the GFS are suggesting.

 

source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/

 

 

 

I think the "silly" part was that the GFS had the two systems merging while both fully-tropical following the binary interaction.  06Z GFS still has it. 

[yoda]

I think the "silly" part was that the GFS had the two systems merging while both fully-tropical following the binary interaction.  06Z GFS still has it. 

 

Either that or playing Fujiwara with each other

[phil882]

I think the "silly" part was that the GFS had the two systems merging while both fully-tropical following the binary interaction.  06Z GFS still has it. 

 

Sure its an unlikely solution, but certainly plausible. Its certainly not unprecedented  Gil and Henriette (2001) both underwent binary interaction and merged before becoming remnant lows. Thats very much like what the GFS is depicting in the long range (beyond 120 hours).

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/2001/epac/sep.html

[HurricaneJosh]

Everyone always gets so excited about those pervert Fujiwara interactions.

[AvantHiatus]

Everyone always gets so excited about those pervert Fujiwara interactions.

 

Here is your red meat of the Pacific Basin....12z CMC. The model was upgraded this year and I would not completely discount this scenario. Andrea was somewhat overplayed but the CMC was the first model to signal significant TC genesis.

[HurricaneJosh]

Here is your red meat of the Pacific Basin....12z CMC. The model was upgraded this year and I would not completely discount this scenario. Andrea was somewhat overplayed but the CMC was the first model to signal significant TC genesis.

Wow, hawt-- especially if it would loop back toward the coast. Very nice model porn there.

[Superstorm93]

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AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

 

 

94E

 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. 

 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The lame lemon becomes a mandarin; the mandarin becomes a cherry. 

 

Invest 94E - SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

 

Invest 95E - AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

[Srain]

While it may be a fish storm and nobody cares, 94E appears to be a large circulation. We could see a very ‘photogenic cyclone’ in the making.

 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

Yeah, SHIPS brings it up to a 'cane pretty fast. The models are well clustered around a safe fish track, well offshore. Blah-- it's to be expected this time of year.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Invest 94E lacks a well-defined center but has convection. Invest 95E lacks convection but has a well-defined center. Who will make it first?

 

NHC seems more optimistic for 94E, for obvious reasons.

 

[HurricaneJosh]

The models are pretty aggro with 94E. The SHIPS spins it up to a 'cane real fast.

After the early-season excitement of Barbara, I think we're slipping into that part of the season which is the usual fish train.

[HurricaneJosh]

Da cherry's gonna pop. 100% now.

[icebreaker5221]

The area of convection and overall circulation is huge, already larger than TX in fact.  However, there are large areas of subsidence and drier air between the central convection and outer bands, making it look a bit messy.  Really reminds me of a W. Pac system in both these regards. 

[Srain]

TD 03E has formed. Should see Cosme within the next 24-48 hours.

[Santa Claus]

On the visible satellite it looks like it's trying to purge the dry air between the northern band and the core.  Also cloud tops look pretty cold over the core despite the heating of the day.  It's still a bit messy but I wouldn't be surprised if this is already a tropical storm.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Tropical Depression Three-E looks like a classic monsoonal West Pacific tropical cyclone to me, with what appears to be a broad [but closed] low-level center with several mesovorticies within. An ASCAT pass from just after noon revealed several 25 kt. wind barbs, meaning 03E is not quite a tropical storm yet, but still a solid tropical depression..