Ed Lizard Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 OK, I admit I'm not doing much to earn my A-List Tropical Dude status lately, but I have to say, I'm a little disappointed to pop in here and see zero discussion Re: the EPAC invests, one of which is likely to become a cyclone soon. C'mon, guys. P.S. I know I've been mega-lame lately, but I'll be back on board soon. It's just been a busy few months for me... I was going to comment on the mandarin yesterday, but the thread seemed kind of dormant. Cherry now... Looks like it has a way to go to me with the 'bursting' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 SHIPS brings it up to a 'cane. Kinda interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 27, 2013 Author Share Posted May 27, 2013 Thanks for updating the subtitle Adam, been away from the computer for the long weekend... Looks like 92E is competing with some convection that developed over land in southern MX. We'll see what happens overnight as that diminishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Thanks for updating the subtitle Adam, been away from the computer for the long weekend... Looks like 92E is competing with some convection that developed over land in southern MX. We'll see what happens overnight as that diminishes. You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 You're welcome. Oh ok, well then thanks to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Thanks for updating the subtitle Adam, been away from the computer for the long weekend... Looks like 92E is competing with some convection that developed over land in southern MX. We'll see what happens overnight as that diminishes. Well! There you are! I was concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 90% cherry now, storms aren't in the burst and fizzle mode as much as yesterday, and rotation can be seen on IR2 product, but I'd like to see more rotation on regular false color infrared. NHC seems to suggest advisories and warnings could go up at any time, if this was farther from the Mexican coast, I don't think it'd warrant an upgrade, but public safety concerns may force their hands. EP, 92, 2013052812, , BEST, 0, 138N, 956W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ Edit, I was trying to attach false color satellite loop, but the little circle of attachment never stops turning. Easily found on internet, and not a classic tight eyed major cane that needs to be archived for posterity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 ASCAT from about 12 hours ago says the circulation has some work to do: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Still worth watching for Atlantic Tropical Thread fans in case its remnants contribute to something in the NW Caribbean/Bay of Campeche which might escape out from under the US SW ridge for Florida, or get turned back due West towards the NE Mexican coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Figured they would once TAFB came back with T2.0 and SAB with T2.5. Circulation is still too elongated for my liking, but they're the experts. Its proximity to land probably played a role. BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_RENUMBER_ep922013_ep022013.renFSTDARU0400100000201305281826NONENOTIFY=ATRPEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013200 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE GULF OFTEHUANTEPEC DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEVELOPED AWELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTIONHAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER AND DVORAKCLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB. THEREFORE...THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICALDEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT.THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN SINCE THELOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ILL-DEFINED UP UNTIL NOW...BUT THE BESTGUESS IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURNNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT FEELSTHE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITEDSTATES. THE TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS ANDBRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24HOURS.THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THESYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITYFORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THECYCLONE INTERACTS WITH RUGGED TERRAIN. DUE TO THE LARGE CLOUD FIELDAND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...THE BIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVYRAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 28/2100Z 14.2N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH12H 29/0600Z 14.9N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 29/1800Z 16.2N 95.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND36H 30/0600Z 17.6N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND48H 30/1800Z 18.6N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 BULLETINTROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013500 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.2N 96.0WABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARYMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 It looks to be intensifying-- radar shows what looks like an eye is forming. The NHC forecast suggests it could be approaching hurricane strength as it crosses the coast tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 It looks to be intensifying-- radar shows what looks like an eye is forming. The NHC forecast suggests it could be approaching hurricane strength as it crosses the coast tomorrow. It does look fairly impressive on radar... outside chance of minimal hurricane intensity in my opinion given that its already in the beginning stages of having an established inner core and still seems to be 18 hours away from landfall, if not longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Forming an eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 It's strengthening as it heads for the Oaxaca coast, and the Mexican government has issued a Hurricane Watch. The NHC says the convective pattern suggests possible rapid intensification. Looks great on IR. Cool factoid: if it becomes a hurricane and stays on the forecast track, it would be the furthest-east hurricane landfall on record in this basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Barbara is probably very near to hurricane intensity based upon the latest radar imagery from Puerto Ángel. Normally, a TC embedded in a monsoonal gyre near the Mexican coastline would become vulnerable to downslope interference as it approaches land; but in this case, there is a weak low-level shortwave ridge just to the north of the cyclone. This ridge is marked by ESE (meaning onshore) flow along the periphery, which is serving as a conduit for low-level moistening of the boundary layer, thus increasing the lapse rate. This is a great example of how the MJO is beneficial for the strengthening of small E Pacific cyclones like Barbara. While there are some weak westerlies lurking just to the north, UL divergence is improving due to the influence of a trough to the northwest, so I would anticipate further intensification up until landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Wow-- that's a crazy radar shot! That's a 'cane. No doubt in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Wow-- that's a crazy radar shot! That's a 'cane. No doubt in my mind. This is up there with one of the most impressive rapid intensification cases from genesis... keep in mind this was only initially classified a mere 13 hours ago! That even outclasses the likes of Humberto (2007)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 This is up there with one of the most impressive rapid intensification cases from genesis... keep in mind this was only initially classified a mere 13 hours ago! That even outclasses the likes of Humberto (2007)! Yeah, it's crazy. The evolution seemed to happen in a matter of hours. The Mexicans clearly noticed this, too, because they hoisted a Hurricane Warning at 3:25 am PDT. They couldn't even wait until the next advisory. I think that was the right decision, given the rapid evolution of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The curvature of the coastline Barbara is moving towards may have also played a part in its rapid intensification, similar to how tropical cyclones rapidly intensify in the Bay of Campeche under favorable conditions (ex. Karl '10). Storm is doing good given I didn't think it would form yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Barbara is nearing landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 Broken eyewall may have tightened up very briefly as Barbara made landfall, but seems to be expanding again. That was a very impressive genesis -> RI event! Weakening stage has probably begun. It would be nice to see some surface obs out of that barrier island, but it appears to be more or less uninhabited east of San Mateo. Nearest reporting station I can find is Salina Cruz, but they haven't reported for a couple hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I'm thrown off by the imagery here. The NHC has not yet declared landfall. The radar imagery suggests the eye is almost entirely inland; however, visible imagery shows an eye feature clearing out well offshore. Perhaps the MLC is not aligned with the LLC, or perhaps the radar site is just way off. Any suggestions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 I'm thrown off by the imagery here. The NHC has not yet declared landfall. The radar imagery suggests the eye is almost entirely inland; however, visible imagery shows an eye feature clearing out well offshore. Perhaps the MLC is not aligned with the LLC, or perhaps the radar site is just way off. Any suggestions? Hmm, that is perplexing. NHC discussion seems to attribute it to northerly shear (LLC showing up on radar, ULC showing on satellite), but I'd be surprised to see such an extreme vertical tilt with such a tight apparent eyewall. Either way, it's still probably a contributing factor. The drawing of the coastline could be somewhat off on the satellite imagery (it's tricky with barrier islands and an intercoastal to define an exact coast), and perhaps the radar is incorrectly calibrated. Hard to say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 BULLETINHURRICANE BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP0220131100 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013...BARBARA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...15.8N 94.3WABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Also of interest: 1. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATIONWITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTOF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA...BUT THISACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM COULDBECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...ENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE LOW PRESSUREAREA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Hmm, that is perplexing. NHC discussion seems to attribute it to northerly shear (LLC showing up on radar, ULC showing on satellite), but I'd be surprised to see such an extreme vertical tilt with such a tight apparent eyewall. Either way, it's still probably a contributing factor. The drawing of the coastline could be somewhat off on the satellite imagery (it's tricky with barrier islands and an intercoastal to define an exact coast), and perhaps the radar is incorrectly calibrated. Hard to say for sure. Yes, I have no doubt the satellite imagery's outline of the Oaxacan coast is in error somewhat. But surely it's not off that much? Something really seems amiss. The radar out of Puerto Ángel suggests the eye is already over Cerro Atravesado, which is around 7,500 feet elevation. That's quite a bit inland. Yet, there is clearly intensification still underway based on satellite. Not that it couldn't be briefly tightening up due to land interaction, but the elevation seems like it would be more of an inhibiting factor. I just really want to say the radar is flat out inaccurate: Edit: NHC 11 AM PDT position: 15.8N 94.3W Position of Cerro Altravesado: 16.5N 94.4W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The Mexican radar imagery isn't aligning the echoes with the landmasses properly. This is not a vertical-tilt thing-- it's just a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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