HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Storms generally don't remain as stationary as NHC projects for Raymond over that period. They wander slightly off course. So Raymond easily could produce hurricane-force winds onshore somewhere, even if he doesn't make landfall. Moreover, terrain interaction will take its toll if Raymond gets his wind field sufficiently close to the coast, so he may fall apart before or without full-scale landfall. That said, I encourage you to activate the chase team. At the moment, infrared imagery suggests faster northward motion than the Hurricane Center forecast; that trend would bring the center somewhat closer to the coast. I assume you were addressing this to me (Re: the chase team). It's certainly tempting, but there are so many variables at play and I've just gotten back from a triple-typhoon chase, so I'm maybe feeling a tad more conservative than normal. But it does look pretty awesome, particularly that MW image. I'll reassess tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 ATCF makes it 80 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 Eye is clearing out nicely. BAMD continues to suggest that a deep system (as Raymond is rapidly becoming) would make landfall in about 24 h. That said, last few frames suggest that northward motion has slowed significantly. Could just be wobbles as the core continues to become better defined, or it could suggest that the southerly deep layer steering flow is not as robust as modeled. Need a few more IR images to say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Up to 100 mph. Forecast to reach 125 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Raymond=insane. Josh, chase this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 It's tempting, but I can't get past the fact that the global models-- and the NHC forecast-- keep it offshore. To chase this, I'd need to disregard all the most-reliable indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Eh so much for the no majors futility streak. Raymond will need to get sheared fast for that to hold. What do you know the storm Josh opts of will turn out to be the hawtest storm in many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 It's tempting, but I can't get past the fact that the global models-- and the NHC forecast-- keep it offshore. To chase this, I'd need to disregard all the most-reliable indicators. The GFS and ECMWF initialized terribly with the system. The NHC noted significant uncertainty in their forecast and stated it would not take much for this to come ashore. Go on. P.S. is it time to make a new thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Eh so much for the no majors futility streak. Raymond will need to get sheared fast for that to hold. What do you know the storm Josh opts of will turn out to be the hawtest storm in many years. OK, you just hush up! The GFS and ECMWF initialized terribly with the system. The NHC noted significant uncertainty in their forecast and stated it would not take much for this to come ashore. Go on. You guys are terrible, getting me all worked up like this. But, yeah, that MW is crazy-hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Now 110 mph w/ a pressure of 967 millibars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 With respect paid to our resident hurricane hunters and weather hobbyists I am glad this thing is not impacting the Mexican people as significantly as it could. That is a remarkably vicious hurricane, especially given how lackluster other storms have been this year. I guess it's gambler's fallacy to assume some storm is going to be something based upon previous storms but this thing has pretty strongly overperformed after a lot of low pressure centers have gotten sheared apart this year. "About time," eh? Then again maybe I speak too soon as NHC is not particularly confident about Raymond's track and for all I know it'll ruin some beachfront Mexican property within a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Its certainly not moving fast tonight, just merely drifting north. The other factor I have been neglecting that is just as important as intensity is the size of the system, which is below average. Because of this, the PV tower is also smaller than a normal TC, which would limit the impact the upper-level steering currents to the north. I don't blame Josh for having cold feet, especially when the guidance continues to shy away from a direct landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Its certainly not moving fast tonight, just merely drifting north. The other factor I have been neglecting that is just as important as intensity is the size of the system, which is below average. Because of this, the PV tower is also smaller than a normal TC, which would limit the impact the upper-level steering currents to the north. I don't blame Josh for having cold feet, especially when the guidance continues to shy away from a direct landfall. Thanks. Yeah, it's mega-hawt-- my kinda cyclone all the way-- but the setup just ain't clear enough. Even if it comes ashore as an intense landfall-- which it very well could-- I still feel my decision makes sense, given the indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 With that said, the ECWMF's track over the next 24-36 hours is absolutely bazare... it still hasn't caught on to the whole RI thing thats been ongoing the last 24 hours, but it intensifies the system as it pushes it to the SE. I don't think I've ever seen a strong intensifying TC moving southeast in the EPAC since TC Norbert in 1984. If you want a good laugh you have to see the loop (below) http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/1984/epac/norbert.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 120 MPH @5AM. WHemi gets a major hurricane after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 It seems to be moving to the north a little faster now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 See, we've gone a year and 5 days without a major in the EPAC, and now that we have one, I'm like really really excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 ATCF keeps it at 105 knts for 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 Eye is clearing out nicely. BAMD continues to suggest that a deep system (as Raymond is rapidly becoming) would make landfall in about 24 h. That said, last few frames suggest that northward motion has slowed significantly. Could just be wobbles as the core continues to become better defined, or it could suggest that the southerly deep layer steering flow is not as robust as modeled. Need a few more IR images to say for sure. Looks like the early signs were quite telling... Deep layer steering was weak to begin with. A subtle but influential change in the evolution of the synoptic environment now favors a more easterly component to storm motion as evidenced by the abrupt westward shift of the BAMD at 12Z. Coastal MX will be hit by rain and wind, but the core will stay offshore. Good call on the no-go Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Pretty impressive system. Hopefully it moves away from the coastline before those rains become a major issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Ill be surprised if this is not 115 knts at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Down to 105 knts at 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 See, we've gone a year and 5 days without a major in the EPAC, and now that we have one, I'm like really really excited. Looks like the early signs were quite telling... Deep layer steering was weak to begin with. A subtle but influential change in the evolution of the synoptic environment now favors a more easterly component to storm motion as evidenced by the abrupt westward shift of the BAMD at 12Z. Coastal MX will be hit by rain and wind, but the core will stay offshore. Good call on the no-go Josh. Hey, thanks, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 The longer you go without an intense storm, when an intense storm occurs, you get really excited. Raymond down to 100 knts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Its so obvious that southwesterly shear is not the culprit to blame for Raymond's weakening today. Instead, its due to upwelling of cooler waters underneath (+ potentially some dry downslopeing off Mexico). OHC is not all that high underneath the storm currently, and satellite observations of SSTs won't be able to update fully the region until Raymond and its associated convection and cloudiness moves out of the way. Its likely the system has burned through all its fuel as noted by the warmer cloud top temperatures near the center vs. in the outer bands away from the center. Once Raymond starts moving to the west it should be able to recover, but the radial re-distribution of PV based upon the displacement of deeper convection away from the center suggests the radius of maximum winds should grow in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Raymond's on life support-- barely a 'cane now. So glad I listened to the Euro/GFS/NHC triumvirate and avoided the temptation to fly down to ACA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Raymond still 65 knts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Raymond 45 knts. Slight chance it could rehook and come crashing inland but more likely will stall offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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