East Pacific Hurricane Season 2013

[Yellow Evan]

I think there is a chance of landfall in a couple days, or it could pull a Beatriz 11/Andres 09 and scrape the coast. Very classic EPAC late October setup. Hopefully, this does not become a Tara 61, that's the worst case IMO right now. Most likely is that it barely misses the coast as a Cat 2 IMO. BTW, this area does not need more rain, Manuel 13 devastated Guerrero last month.

[Amped]

ECMWF says no majors streak ends day 8.  It is also moving pretty fast at landfall.

 

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF says no majors streak ends day 8.  It is also moving pretty fast at landfall.

 

 

Almost exactly like Tico 83. I am not high on the Euro though, I like the GFS better.

[HurricaneJosh]

Its quite clear that Raymond is intensifying (possibly rapidly) at this time. Thus, I am still in favor that this system gains more latitude than currently projected by the NHC forecast, and a solution not unlike the 06z GFS where the system moves inland just west of Acapulco is certainly still on the table. The main thing I am concerned is the fact that the last 3-4 ECMWF runs have remained staunchly offshore, but the key difference here is that the ECMWF doesn't depict Raymond rapidly intensifying until beyond 72 hours, when the weakness in the ridge to the north has already filled back in, blocking any further northward motion. 

 

So back to your question... I'm still leaning landfall, but by no means am confident in that solution yet. The ridge overhead is still weakening over the next 12-24 hours before it slowly starts to build back in, so the short term intensity and track is critical in this case. 

 

I am 95% sure Raymond becomes a hurricane, but only about 60% confident in a MX landfall, although if it does make landfall, it will very likely be a hurricane.

Thanks, Phil-- your reasoning makese sense. Appreciate it!

[GaWx]

Almost exactly like Tico 83. I am not high on the Euro though, I like the GFS better.

 

Fwiw, last year the GFS kept showing a similar recurving hit on MX at about the same date and on numerous runs (Josh would recall) while the Euro never had anything. The Euro was victorious in that case. The GFS stopped showing these hits once it started emphasizing Sandy.

[HurricaneJosh]

I think there is a chance of landfall in a couple days, or it could pull a Beatriz 11/Andres 09 and scrape the coast. Very classic EPAC late October setup. Hopefully, this does not become a Tara 61, that's the worst case IMO right now. Most likely is that it barely misses the coast as a Cat 2 IMO. BTW, this area does not need more rain, Manuel 13 devastated Guerrero last month.

Not sure I see what's so classic about it. The setup actually looks complex and unclear, with model solutions diverging significantly.

[HurricaneJosh]

Almost exactly like Tico 83. I am not high on the Euro though, I like the GFS better.

Tico was further S.

The change with the Euro is interesting, as all previous runs had this fishing. Let's see what happens on subsequent runs.

[HurricaneJosh]

Fwiw, last year the GFS kept showing a similar recurving hit on MX at about the same date and on numerous runs (Josh would recall) while the Euro never had anything. The Euro was victorious in that case. The GFS stopped showing these hits once it started emphasizing Sandy.

Interesting. Honesty I don't remember. I think you're better at recalling these details than I. I think once a model tease doesn't materialize, those files just automatically delete from my head.

[HurricaneJosh]

P.S. The new Euro run is what I'd call a classic October scenario, with a cyclone forming near the coast, moving slowly away, and then boomeranging sharply and rapidly toward the coast.

[Yellow Evan]

Fwiw, last year the GFS kept showing a similar recurving hit on MX at about the same date and on numerous runs (Josh would recall) while the Euro never had anything. The Euro was victorious in that case. The GFS stopped showing these hits once it started emphasizing Sandy.

 

I think Sandy messed all of that up, but I remember that clearly. The system ended up becoming Rosa. 

[Yellow Evan]

Tico was further S.

The change with the Euro is interesting, as all previous runs had this fishing. Let's see what happens on subsequent runs.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tico_1983_track.png

 

Not by much, Tico still passed a bit north of Jalisco.

[Yellow Evan]

P.S. The new Euro run is what I'd call a classic October scenario, with a cyclone forming near the coast, moving slowly away, and then boomeranging sharply and rapidly toward the coast.

 

Very classic indeed. I can make a long list of storm's that have done what you just described.

[HurricaneJosh]

Very classic indeed. I can make a long list of storm's that have done what you just described.

 

Yeah.  The last really sexy example was Kenna 2002, but there have been other lesser examples since.  

 

What's interesting is that while the GFS fishes Raymond, it seems to boomerang a future Sonia toward the coast after Day 10-- so both models are sniffing the boomerang setup, just with different cyclones.

[phil882]

RI in progress... should be a hurricane by later tonight.

 

Moreover the ECMWF has a very poor handle on the current intensification trends... I think the chances are increasing this makes landfall within 48 hours. 

 

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah.  The last really sexy example was Kenna 2002, but there have been other lesser examples since.  

 

What's interesting is that while the GFS fishes Raymond, it seems to boomerang a future Sonia toward the coast after Day 10-- so both models are sniffing the boomerang setup, just with different cyclones.

 

Track-wise Rick 09 I'd say, but that weakened a bit into a TS before diving into Sinaloa.

[Yellow Evan]

RI in progress... should be a hurricane by later tonight.

 

 

It could be one right now.

[GaWx]

Interesting. Honesty I don't remember. I think you're better at recalling these details than I. I think once a model tease doesn't materialize, those files just automatically delete from my head.

 

Josh,

 I copied and pasted this from my 10/21/12 post (almost exactly one year ago!) showing a bunch of GFS runs in a row showing a hit (while the Euro had very little):

 

"Here is the GFS update going through the 18Z GFS of today (14+ straight modeled strikes on MX):

Thu 12Z: southern Sinaloa 11/2

Thu 18Z: southern Sinaloa 10/29

Fri 0Z: southern Baja Sur 10/31 moving ENE

Fri 6Z: southern Baja Sur 10/29 moving NNE

Fri 12Z: southern Baja Sur 10/29 moving NNE

Fri 18Z: southern Sinaloa 10/30 moving NE

Sat 0Z: Jalisco 10/31 moving NE

Sat 6Z: northern Sinaloa 10/31 moving NE but unraveling

Sat 12Z: southern Sinaloa 10/30 moving NE

Sat 18Z: southern Sinaloa or northern Nayarit 10/29 moving NE or ENE

Sun 0Z: northern Michoacan 10/29 unraveling?

Sun 6Z: Jalisco 10/31 unraveling?

Sun 12Z: Jalisco 10/31 unraveling?

Sun 18Z: Colima 10/31 unraveling?"

 

Also, from Josh, major H hits on west coast of Mexico since 1949:

 

1957 No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt)

1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt)

1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt)

1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (~100 kt)

1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt)

1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt)

2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt)

2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt)

 

So hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27

 

As Josh mentioned, the real strongest (cat. 4-5) hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27 

 

 Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino.

--------------------------------

From me last year: "Also, I've found per Wiki three sig. hurricanes (any of which could have been a major at landfall) during the 1800's hitting between 10/27 and 11/1 on the MX coast anywhere from Mazatlan to Manzanillo:

Nov. 1, 1839: Mazatlan, Sinaloa

Nov. 1, 1840: San Blas, Nayarit

Oct. 27, 1881: Manzanillo, Colima; 950 mb/110 knots..so this was a major; Per Wiki, 'This hurricane totally destroyed the city.'"          

 

 So, lateness is key!! Also, Mazatlan in Sinaloa seems to be a magnet for late season major hits!

 

[Yellow Evan]

Josh,

 I copied and pasted this from my 10/21/12 post (almost exactly one year ago!) showing a bunch of GFS runs in a row showing a hit (while the Euro had very little):

 

"Here is the GFS update going through the 18Z GFS of today (14+ straight modeled strikes on MX):

Thu 12Z: southern Sinaloa 11/2

Thu 18Z: southern Sinaloa 10/29

Fri 0Z: southern Baja Sur 10/31 moving ENE

Fri 6Z: southern Baja Sur 10/29 moving NNE

Fri 12Z: southern Baja Sur 10/29 moving NNE

Fri 18Z: southern Sinaloa 10/30 moving NE

Sat 0Z: Jalisco 10/31 moving NE

Sat 6Z: northern Sinaloa 10/31 moving NE but unraveling

Sat 12Z: southern Sinaloa 10/30 moving NE

Sat 18Z: southern Sinaloa or northern Nayarit 10/29 moving NE or ENE

Sun 0Z: northern Michoacan 10/29 unraveling?

Sun 6Z: Jalisco 10/31 unraveling?

Sun 12Z: Jalisco 10/31 unraveling?

Sun 18Z: Colima 10/31 unraveling?"

 

Also, from Josh, major H hits on west coast of Mexico since 1949:

 

1957 No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt)

1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt)

1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt)

1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (~100 kt)

1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt)

1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)

1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt)

2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt)

2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt)

 

So hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27

 

As Josh mentioned, the real strongest (cat. 4-5) hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27 

 

 Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino.

--------------------------------

From me last year: "Also, I've found per Wiki three sig. hurricanes (any of which could have been a major at landfall) during the 1800's hitting between 10/27 and 11/1 on the MX coast anywhere from Mazatian to Manzanillo:

Nov. 1, 1839: Mazatlan, Sinaloa

Nov. 1, 1840: San Blas, Nayarit

Oct. 27, 1881: Manzanillo, Colima; 950 mb/110 knots..so this was a major; Per Wiki, 'This hurricane totally destroyed the city.'"          

 

 So, lateness is key!! Also, Mazatlan in Sinaloa seems to be a magnet for late season major hits!

 

 

You c/p'd the same thing from last year's thread like a month ago on here, BTW,

[GaWx]

You c/p'd the same thing from last year's thread like a month ago on here, BTW,

 

I know. I'm sort of giving it a hard bump now that we're coming up on the crucial time.

[phil882]

It could be one right now.

 

Well NHC took it up to 60 knots in their most recent advisory, with 85 knots in 24 hours. The discussion sounds like they are growing more concerned about a landfall < 48 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings / Hurricane Watches have been hoisted up across the coastline near Acapulco. 

 

Start making your plans Josh, I think things are about to get very interesting.

[HurricaneJosh]

Well NHC took it up to 60 knots in their most recent advisory, with 85 knots in 24 hours. The discussion sounds like they are growing more concerned about a landfall < 48 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings / Hurricane Watches have been hoisted up across the coastline near Acapulco. 

 

Start making your plans Josh, I think things are about to get very interesting.

 

 

This seems like it would be a tough chase subject, as it'll be very close to the coast by the time landfall seems imminent.  But if it takes more of a Euro-type track-- moving away from the coast and then boomeranging back towards it-- that could work.

[phil882]

[Yellow Evan]

Looking more and more like a hurricane. 8th hurricane of the year here we come!

[Supercane]

If Raymond makes landfall as a hurricane, this would be the first EPAC season since 1997 with 3 hurricane landfalls.

[Yellow Evan]

If Raymond makes landfall as a hurricane, this would be the first EPAC season since 1997 with 3 hurricane landfalls.

 

Not counting Ioke's landfall on Jonhston I'd assume in 2006. Also, unless you count Linda on Soccoro (did not make landfall there), 1997 only had 2. Nora and Pauline. 1996 had like 4 though.

[Supercane]

Not counting Ioke's landfall on Jonhston I'd assume in 2006. Also, unless you count Linda on Soccoro (did not make landfall there), 1997 only had 2. Nora and Pauline. 1996 had like 4 though.

 

Don't forget Rick in 1997. And no, I'm not counting CPAC landfalls.

[Yellow Evan]

Don't forget Rick in 1997. And no, I'm not counting CPAC landfalls.

 

Right. Forgot about Rick 97. Overshadowed by the Pauline. Underrated EPAC storm.

[snowmanwx]

Storms generally don't remain as stationary as NHC projects for Raymond over that period.  They wander slightly off course.  So Raymond easily could produce hurricane-force winds onshore somewhere, even if he doesn't make landfall.  Moreover, terrain interaction will take its toll if Raymond gets his wind field sufficiently close to the coast, so he may fall apart before or without full-scale landfall.  That said, I encourage you to activate the chase team.  At the moment, infrared imagery suggests faster northward motion than the Hurricane Center forecast; that trend would bring the center somewhat closer to the coast. 

 

Barbara and Manuel struck the Pacific coast of Mexico earlier this season as bona fide hurricanes, but Ingrid collapsed before washing ashore from the Atlantic basin. 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Eye is clearing out.

 

[Yellow Evan]

Storms generally don't remain as stationary as NHC projects for Raymond over that period.  They wander slightly off course.  So Raymond easily could produce hurricane-force winds onshore somewhere, even if he doesn't make landfall.  Moreover, terrain interaction will take its toll if Raymond gets his wind field sufficiently close to the coast, so he may fall apart before or without full-scale landfall.  That said, I encourage you to activate the chase team.  At the moment, infrared imagery suggests faster northward motion than the Hurricane Center forecast; that trend would bring the center somewhat closer to the coast. 

 

Barbara and Manuel struck the Pacific coast of Mexico earlier this season as bona fide hurricanes, but Ingrid collapsed before washing ashore from the Atlantic basin. 

 

I don;t chase, but I get the sense it will moved quicker than expected. Been a problem all season long IMO for the NHC, they've been showing system moving slower than they actually did, evidenced by Octave.