East Pacific Hurricane Season 2013

[Ed Lizard]

Still holding out hope for mid to late month EPAC action, as I mentioned in Atlantic thread, I wish the op was higher amplitude and the EC ensembles aren't tremendous, but as I mention ad nauseum on the KHOU-TV 11 weather forum, I remember 1994 and East Pac Rosa, and if people chased Pacific Mexico hurricanes then, that would have been having cake and icing, although the heavy rain in Texas, to me, would be the cake, even if it happened after a chaser intercept.  If that makes sense.

 

 

Note, the GFS ensembles seem to be supporting my Atlantic Caribbean optimism from that thread, but based on previous talk that the GFS is usually too fast in progressing whatever factors (which I need to ask, do MJO maps work off of some kind of algorithm based on where the model or ensemble shows OLR anomalies, or heights and winds at some level, or what) that the MJO phase diagrams are derived from, perhaps the ensemble storms are actually occurring in the East Pac.  Water oak wise, that is cake, if the GEFS liking the Caribbean is right, that is more like icing.

[Superstorm93]

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

 

 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Should become Narda tomorrow -- probably peak as a strong tropical storm mid-week. No threat to anything.

 

[Ed Lizard]

And Narda does what every Western Hemisphere TC this year has done, unperformed.

[Amped]

 

And Narda does what every Western Hemisphere TC this year has done, unperformed.

 

 

I am only still following this season because I need a good laugh. This storm certainly provided one.

[icebreaker5221]

Stout southwesterly shear (courtesy an active subtropical jet) along with dry mid-latitude air diving in from the north look to be major inhibiting factors down the road, but the track of 94E is at least mildly interesting. 

 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

New depression. Should become a tropical storm but degenerate prior to reaching Baja California Sur.

 

EP, 15, 2013101300, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1098W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, M, 

[GaWx]

Let's see if late Oct. provides a classic EPAC hooker into Mexico. The GFS has been suggesting this on some runs. However, that is still pretty far out in lala land. Also, I haven't forgotten the false alerts shown by many GFS runs last year for late Oct and the fact that the Euro didn't have them. Actually, I think Sandy may have had an indirect negative effect on the EPAC.

[icebreaker5221]

Looks like TS Octave will be unraveling rapidly, if not already dissipated, prior to landfall on the Baja Peninsual. 

 

If anything interesting is still to come this Oct, it's going to have to recurve further south. 

[Srain]

Octave is doing what we in Texas expected earlier in the week and prompting a Flood event that often happen in October when EPAC tropical moisture and Western troughs with embedded short wave disturbances as well as slowly moving frontal boundaries combine. 

[Yellow Evan]

I can't see anytrhing happening this OCt.

 

The PHS deserves credit for spwaning 17 storms, having four hurricanes before July 15, Manuel.

 

Otherwise, it's been trash.

 

Octave will not make it to BCP, we've sorta got the November moisture cutoff taking effect in mid-October, which shuts off anywhere north of 15N.

 

I can't see anything forming soon that's gonna be big. GFS not enthusiastic about anything.

 

Bring on 2014 PHS. We better have a good looking major before mid-August. (the EPAC majors in late August and Semptember aren't good looking IMO, sans maybe Jimena 09/John 06).

 

At least the WPAC and NIO are having good systems to track, but I just can't get hooked on those basins.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We've got a quick spinner.

 

Eye visible on both microwave and conventional satellite. SAB at T3.5/55kt, TAFB at T4.0/65kt.

 

[Yellow Evan]

I can't see anytrhing happening this OCt.

 

The PHS deserves credit for spwaning 17 storms, having four hurricanes before July 15, Manuel.

 

Otherwise, it's been trash.

 

Octave will not make it to BCP, we've sorta got the November moisture cutoff taking effect in mid-October, which shuts off anywhere north of 15N.

 

I can't see anything forming soon that's gonna be big. GFS not enthusiastic about anything.

 

Bring on 2014 PHS. We better have a good looking major before mid-August. (the EPAC majors in late August and Semptember aren't good looking IMO, sans maybe Jimena 09/John 06).

 

At least the WPAC and NIO are having good systems to track, but I just can't get hooked on those basins.

 

Nvm. 95E might form.

[Yellow Evan]

Priscilla is here and Octave is threatening BCP.

[Yellow Evan]

Moisture moving inland. Pulling an Octave 83. Won't be as bad though, clearly. Monsoon's gone is the main reason why IMO.

[Santa Claus]

Anything going on with that convection east of Priscilla?

[Yellow Evan]

Anything going on with that convection east of Priscilla?

 

No. Just a sh*t storm.

[phil882]

I am liking the next week for a significant recurving late season TC in the far EPAC. Favorable MJO + model support. The current disturbance at 10N 90W is the target system... the NHC 5 day outlook should start mentioning it soon. 

[HurricaneJosh]

I am liking the next week for a significant recurving late season TC in the far EPAC. Favorable MJO + model support. The current disturbance at 10N 90W is the target system... the NHC 5 day outlook should start mentioning it soon. 

 

Cool-- you talking about the thing that the GFS is showing threatening the S coast in the Day 8-11 range?

[phil882]

Cool-- you talking about the thing that the GFS is showing threatening the S coast in the Day 8-11 range?

 

Both the GFS and ECMWF are on board, with the ECMWF being significantly faster (landfall in day 5-6). Moreover the same MJO band low-level westerly wind anomalies that have aided in TCG in the WPAC are forecasted to finally migrate over the EPAC around this time. 

 

Additionally, anything that tries to move poleward won't be able to gain much longitude due to a low-amplitude trough over the EPAC, probably nothing beyond 105W. The main steering currents will be controlled by a westward extending mid-level ridge over the Caribbean. If a TC does develop, the ridge should erode pretty easily along the western periphery, which would favor mainly northward motion to anything that becomes vertically deep. 

[HurricaneJosh]

Both the GFS and ECMWF are on board, with the ECMWF being significantly faster (landfall in day 5-6). Moreover the same MJO band low-level westerly wind anomalies that have aided in TCG in the WPAC are forecasted to finally migrate over the EPAC around this time. 

 

Additionally, anything that tries to move poleward won't be able to gain much longitude due to a low-amplitude trough over the EPAC, probably nothing beyond 105W. The main steering currents will be controlled by a westward extending mid-level ridge over the Caribbean. If a TC does develop, the ridge should erode pretty easily along the western periphery, which would favor mainly northward motion to anything that becomes vertically deep. 

 

Cool.  Sounds kinda interestin'.  (Kinda embarrassed to be even thinking of chasing again so soon, but if something's gonna hit MX, I can't say no-- it's my turf.)

[phil882]

Both the GFS and ECMWF are now suggesting the system won't make landfall in the next 5-7 days but mainly sit and drift in the same spot the entire period. I'm not buying that solution quite yet since the weakness is clearly still there and if the storm becomes vertically deep, it will likely still be pulled northward. The ECMWF is also quite a bit more aggressive with genesis and subsequent intensification, making it a significant TC. 

[HurricaneJosh]

Both the GFS and ECMWF are now suggesting the system won't make landfall in the next 5-7 days but mainly sit and drift in the same spot the entire period. I'm not buying that solution quite yet since the weakness is clearly still there and if the storm becomes vertically deep, it will likely still be pulled northward. The ECMWF is also quite a bit more aggressive with genesis and subsequent intensification, making it a significant TC. 

 

OK, cool-- I was just about to ask you about this.  I was noticing it just kinda sits there.  The Euro brings it a little far offshore for my tastes-- but of course a good trough can fix all that and boomerang it right back in, in true October style.

[phil882]

OK, cool-- I was just about to ask you about this.  I was noticing it just kinda sits there.  The Euro brings it a little far offshore for my tastes-- but of course a good trough can fix all that and boomerang it right back in, in true October style.

 

Well its been about 24 hours, and the guidance (mainly GFS/ECMWF combo) is coming into agreement that whatever becomes of 96E should remain offshore. However, I continue to remain skeptical of that solution. There is still a window in the 48-96 hour period where the mid-level ridge overhead is weak enough that anything that develops vertical coherency (anything with a significant PV tower above 500 hPa) should feel the strongest influence by the mid-level ridge over the Caribbean. Manuel earlier in the season faced a similar scenario in which the storm was more vertically deep than expected, and just came inland vs. remaining suck just on the tip of Baja California.

 

However, if the storm remains a low-end TC during this period (<64 knots), the offshore route might verify as the mid-level ridge to the systems west should slowly start to build back in as the southern stream weakness lifts out... and my expectation that this system doesn't make it past 105W will be a bust. That would still take us past day 5 though. 

[Yellow Evan]

I'm liking it's chances for a major. Not sure about a landfall. I will saw is that this kind of scenario is one where models tend to screw up on, like Manuel this year, Lowell in 2008, and many times during the glory days of the 1980's (i.e. Waldo 85 and Tico 83). Will be a classic EPAC system. It's the first storm this year to be in a very very good environment. Low shear for days, could bomb out. FYI, the GFS shows Sonia after this system but keeps it offshore.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

May get classification at 3z if convective trends continue.

 

 

CCKW on the way!

 

[Yellow Evan]

Near 100% now.

[phil882]

Well TD17-E is born... and the way I see it there are two potential outcomes.

 

1) Storm ramps up even faster than the NHC forecast, leading to a an early landfall while the steering currents still favor a mainly north of northeastward track for a vertically deep cyclone.

 

2) Storm intensifies at a slower pace similar to the NHC forecast, causing the storm to approach landfall but not fast enough before the trough lifts out and the storm starts to drift west as the ridge builds back in. This is the solution both the GFS and ECMWF suggest right now.

 

I am worried the global models are intensifying 17-E too slowly early on, which does have implications on the amount of pull the mid-level ridge has over the Caribbean on the system in the short term. 

[HurricaneJosh]

Phil, chance of a hurricane landfall?

[phil882]

Phil, chance of a hurricane landfall?

 

 

Its quite clear that Raymond is intensifying (possibly rapidly) at this time. Thus, I am still in favor that this system gains more latitude than currently projected by the NHC forecast, and a solution not unlike the 06z GFS where the system moves inland just west of Acapulco is certainly still on the table. The main thing I am concerned is the fact that the last 3-4 ECMWF runs have remained staunchly offshore, but the key difference here is that the ECMWF doesn't depict Raymond rapidly intensifying until beyond 72 hours, when the weakness in the ridge to the north has already filled back in, blocking any further northward motion. 

 

So back to your question... I'm still leaning landfall, but by no means am confident in that solution yet. The ridge overhead is still weakening over the next 12-24 hours before it slowly starts to build back in, so the short term intensity and track is critical in this case. 

 

I am 95% sure Raymond becomes a hurricane, but only about 60% confident in a MX landfall, although if it does make landfall, it will very likely be a hurricane.