icebreaker5221 Posted September 17, 2013 Author Share Posted September 17, 2013 Manuel is back to a TD and looking like it's well on its way to TS status. Could be a serious flood risk to the southern tip of the Baja peninsula due to its slow motion. By the way, check out that EPIC dry air out there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Manuel is back to a TD and looking like it's well on its way to TS status. Could be a serious flood risk to the southern tip of the Baja peninsula due to its slow motion. By the way, check out that EPIC dry air out there: wv.jpg Subsiding Phase of the MJO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Very sad event going on for MX. Manuel is making a comeback over the GOC and could be at hurricane intensity IMIO before landfall. Meanwhile, 14-24 ppl perished in MX. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Manuel_%282013%29 (note: I wrote part of that article) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Pretty solid comeback. Looks even better since this pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Yeah manuel looks pretty darn good, and is drifting over bath water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 One thing is for sure...Manuel is not a 35kts TS ... and probably it's in a RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 ...MANUEL QUICKLY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICIO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 108.1W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHEN IS FORECAST AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Manuel is pulling a Kiko 89 IMO. I have a feeling this will become a major before it's all sudden done. Call me crazy if you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Manuel is pulling a Kiko 89 IMO. I have a feeling this will become a major before it's all sudden done. Call me crazy if you want Look at radar and IR. Center is already almost at the coast, and the convection over land is weaker. It'll be a 'cane, but not much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Eye is probably going over Culiacan at the current heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Eye is probably going over Culiacan at the current heading. That would be cool, in the sense that we'll get some quality-controlled airport obs, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 I bet they upgrade in the upcoming 5 pm PDT intermediate advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 They did...it's a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Eye is probably going over Culiacan at the current heading. it was hawt while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 That will take people around Culiacan by surprise. About the stations...the one in the coast stopped reporting 1.5 hours ago, about the same problem in the airport...everybody fled home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 That will take people around Culiacan by surprise. About the stations...the one in the coast stopped reporting 1.5 hours ago, about the same problem in the airport...everybody fled home Ugh, lame! Don't those workers have any curiosity about the obs?? I just checked the NHC position-- it seems way W of Culiacan and moving N-- so I don't think it's going to pass over that city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 It'll likely move ashore near Navolato. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Jorge (wxmx) predicted this exact scenario very early this morning, before anyone else was even mentioning it. Pretty cool. (I hate to say this, cuz it's gonna get to his head. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Jorge (wxmx) predicted this exact scenario very ealry this morning, before anyone else was even mentioning it. Pretty cool. (I hate to say this, cuz it's gonna get to his head. ) I wouldnt BTW, Manuel's eye is getting warmer...intensification isn't still over, although the convection over land isn't that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 The 8 pm PDT position is very near the coast-- at a town called Nuevo Altata. Must be fun there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Manuel made landfall W of Culiacan around 8 am PDT with an intensity of 65 kt/987 mb. I would have guessed earlier-- like ~4 am PDT-- based on this radar shot which shows the center of the eye over the coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Pretty much gone. Giving TX rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Last adv written. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 East Pacific action is important in October because 1) I still remember being in Austin in October 1994 and the heavy rain when the mid level remnants of East Pacific Hurricane Rosa moved over a shallow cold dome at the surface. Flooding in the San Jacinto East of Houston scoured out the sub-river oil, gasoline and diesel pipelines, and the TV was stupendous and 2) Josh has that whole 'Whip of St. Francis' thing, and the Atlantic basin looks sure to disappoint. GFS ensemble action, Euro ensembles getting towards Phase 8... USGS 78 - October 15, 1994 Burning oil from breached pipeline caused by Oct. 1994 flood on the San Jacinto River at IH-10 in Houston. Some structures were flooded and burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Well, you know I wubz me some EPAC Oct action, so I hope you're right. Adam says the MJO is gonna move over the EPAC in a week or so, so I'm optimistic for a big, Cat-3 boomerang! P.S. What's the "whip of St. Francis"? I had to Google it and still couldn't figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Well, you know I wubz me some EPAC Oct action, so I hope you're right. Adam says the MJO is gonna move over the EPAC in a week or so, so I'm optimistic for a big, Cat-3 boomerang! P.S. What's the "whip of St. Francis"? I had to Google it and still couldn't figure it out. Lash of St Joseph? Cat'O'Nine Tails of St. Anthony? I don't know. I saw you use it in a post once. Or I thought I did. Maybe I didn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Lash of St Joseph? Cat'O'Nine Tails of St. Anthony? I don't know. I saw you use it in a post once. Or I thought I did. Maybe I didn't... I definitely didn't use those references. I have no clue about Catholic saints or what they mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 I definitely didn't use those references. I have no clue about Catholic saints or what they mean. I sense I offended you. Didn't mean to. I heard, or maybe read, something, somewhere, sometime, and I confused it. It happens. I was trying to be cheerful with GEFS potential cyclones and ECMWF ensembles heading into Octant 8. I'll delete the original post if you're that offended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 I sense I offended you. Didn't mean to. I heard, or maybe read, something, somewhere, sometime, and I confused it. It happens. I was trying to be cheerful with GEFS potential cyclones and ECMWF ensembles heading into Octant 8. I'll delete the original post if you're that offended. Hush-- I'm not offended at all. Totally cool. Nothing to delete. Hopefully they're right Re: Oct 8ish. Adam was hinting to me that there could be EPAC action around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Hush-- I'm not offended at all. Totally cool. Nothing to delete. Hopefully they're right Re: Oct 8ish. Adam was hinting to me that there could be EPAC action around then. Just irritated. At least the West Pac is finally alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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