East Pacific Hurricane Season 2013

[Ed Lizard]

Some indication a wave entering the Caribbean and partially inland over Venezuela could be a threat to the Baja in 10 or 11 days, per 6Z GEFS.

 

I think we'd all like at least one iCyclone chase, although would they consider Baja, as a narrow peninsula, too much like an island and be nervous about a storm paralleling the coast and being unable to keep up with it?  I don't know what the roads are like beyond Los Cabos.

 

I do know they run an offroad endurance race in the desert.

 

3 are 1000mb or below, 2 of the GEFS showing sub 996 mb lows.  But 1004 mb for shock and awe affect.

[Yellow Evan]

Some indication a wave entering the Caribbean and partially inland over Venezuela could be a threat to the Baja in 10 or 11 days, per 6Z GEFS.

 

I think we'd all like at least one iCyclone chase, although would they consider Baja, as a narrow peninsula, too much like an island and be nervous about a storm paralleling the coast and being unable to keep up with it?  I don't know what the roads are like beyond Los Cabos.

 

I do know they run an offroad endurance race in the desert.

 

3 are 1000mb or below, 2 of the GEFS showing sub 996 mb lows.  But 1004 mb for shock and awe affect.

 

I belive there is a road that goes from San Diego to LOs Cabos IIRC.

[HurricaneJosh]

I've chased on the Peninsula before-- Jimena 2009.  It was a good chase.  Yeah, the angle of approach is often a problem with Baja 'canes, but I lucked out with that one and the cyclone's eye passed directly over me.  

 

For chasing on the Peninsula, I'll always fly down to Los Cabos and then drive up; driving down from the USA is problematic:

 

Jimena was one of the better Cat 2s I've been in-- it had real kick:

 

[Ed Lizard]

Shorter range, GFS has two systems try to develop close to each other, battle each other, engage in a torrid Tango de Fujiwara, and produce a rather 'meh' system near Los Cabos.

[wxsmwhrms]

So when is the last time two cyclones actually formed in the CPac basin in a 72 hour period?  And they are monitoring another disturbance with a 40% chance of development.

[Yellow Evan]

I've chased on the Peninsula before-- Jimena 2009.  It was a good chase.  Yeah, the angle of approach is often a problem with Baja 'canes, but I lucked out with that one and the cyclone's eye passed directly over me.  

 

For chasing on the Peninsula, I'll always fly down to Los Cabos and then drive up; driving down from the USA is problematic:

 

Jimena was one of the better Cat 2s I've been in-- it had real kick:

 

 

I imagine Norbert 08 would have been similar to Jimena 09. I don't think 94E hoever will be like Jimena. It's more likely to be a strong TS or weak hurricae at most IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

So when is the last time two cyclones actually formed in the CPac basin in a 72 hour period?  And they are monitoring another disturbance with a 40% chance of development.

 

2002

[Superstorm93]

1. The first visible images of the day revealed that the area of low pressure located about 1050 miles west-southwest of Kauai Hawaii has a well-defined low level circulation center. Given thunderstorms have been persistent with this feature, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will likely be issuing advisories on tropical depression Three-C. This system has a near 100 percent chance of development during the next 48 hours.

 

 

 

 

 

[Yellow Evan]

Holy cow. We now have TD 3-C.

[HurricaneJosh]

Can't think of any topic more boring than CPAC TDs.  I'd almost rather talk about 3-inch snow events in DC.

 

The EPAC and NATL seasons are seriously eating sh*t at this point.

[thewxmann]

Is the high level of CPAC activity correlated with the low level of NATL activity? I recall reading somewhere that there was some type of correlation.

[Yellow Evan]

Can't think of any topic more boring than CPAC TDs.  I'd almost rather talk about 3-inch snow events in DC.

 

The EPAC and NATL seasons are seriously eating sh*t at this point.

 

They are not boring! CPAC rarely gets stuff nowadays.

[Yellow Evan]

Is the high level of CPAC activity correlated with the low level of NATL activity? I recall reading somewhere that there was some type of correlation.

 

In this case, I don't think so. In most seasons El Nino seasons, yea, there is. This IMO is an anomly.

[HurricaneJosh]

They are not boring! CPAC rarely gets stuff nowadays.

 

Can't figure out what on earth is interesting about weak TS fish, but if that gives you wood, hey-- knock yerself out.  It takes all kinds to make the world go 'round.

[wxsmwhrms]

Can't think of any topic more boring than CPAC TDs.  I'd almost rather talk about 3-inch snow events in DC.

 

The EPAC and NATL seasons are seriously eating sh*t at this point.

Well, I can think of topics MORE boring - but I'll admit it isn't exactly excitement city, LOL.  Iniki still makes up for a lot of boring fish, though.  

[HurricaneJosh]

Well, I can think of topics MORE boring - but I'll admit it isn't exactly excitement city, LOL.  Iniki still makes up for a lot of boring fish, though.  

 

Iniki was mega-hawt-- but also an extremely rare event.  People think of Hawai'i as hurricane country, but it really isn't.  In the last 50 years, there've been two direct hits-- Iniki 1992 (a Cat 4 that was admittedly awesome) and a Iwa 1982 (a Cat 1 that just brushed the N islands).

 

But the CPAC even sucks if you're cool looking at hawt fish-- cuz there aren't any.

 

It's basically a horrible basin-- just a half-step above the SATL.  

[Yellow Evan]

Iniki was mega-hawt-- but also an extremely rare event.  People think of Hawai'i as hurricane country, but it really isn't.  In the last 50 years, there've been two direct hits-- Iniki 1992 (a  Cat 4 that was admittedly awesome) and a Iwa 1982 (a Cat 1 that just brushed the N islands).

 

But the CPAC even sucks if you're cool looking at hawt fish-- cuz there aren't any.

 

It's basically a horrible basin-- just a half-step above the SATL.  

 

I perosnally don't consider it a real basin, hey they are combined in HURDAT. But due to lack of storms, it's fun when a storm does get going. That what makes the SATL cool as well. And if you want a really good CPAC cane, there was John 94 and Ioke 06. Iwa 82 is no joke, it was a Cat 1 that came very close to Oahu and Kaui. Also, 54 years ago (just outside of your 50 window) Hurricane Dot in 1959 passed just south of the Big Island as a major and then struck as a Cat 1. Outside of the main islands., Hurricane Nele in 1985 passed through the uninhabited northwestern islands. A few tropical storms have also came within 50 miles from Hawaii: Hurricane Daillia in 1989 came close ot the Big Island, Hurricane Gil in  1983 passed just north of Ohau and last month Flossie passed about 50 miles from Maui as a weak TS. In addition, several storms have threanted to hit the island but never did.

[HurricaneJosh]

I perosnally don't consider it a real basin, hey they are combined in HURDAT. But due to lack of storms, it's fun when a storm does get going. That what makes the SATL cool as well. And if you want a really good CPAC cane, there was John 94 and Ioke 06. Iwa 82 is no joke, it was a Cat 1 that came very close to Oahu and Kaui. Also, 54 years ago (just outside of your 50 window) Hurricane Dot in 1959 passed just south of the Big Island as a major and then struck as a Cat 1. Outside of the main islands., Hurricane Nele in 1985 passed through the uninhabited northwestern islands. A few tropical storms have also came within 50 miles from Hawaii: Hurricane Daillia in 1989 came close ot the Big Island, Hurricane Gil in  1983 passed just north of Ohau and last month Flossie passed about 50 miles from Maui as a weak TS. In addition, several storms have threanted to hit the island but never did.

 

They get brushed a lot, but the only red-meat landfall was Iniki.  As you said, Dot missed as a major, and I'm not saying Iwa wasn't destructive, but it was a Cat 1 and it didn't actually make landfall.

[HurricaneJosh]

P.S.  A much sexier event in 1959 was the EPAC's only known Cat-5 landfall-- near Manzanillo, MX.

[Ed Lizard]

155 years since the San Diego hurricane.  Don't know what the frequency of those are.  Probably takes the mother of warm ENSO events as well...

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/presentations/ams-sandiego.ppt#14

[Yellow Evan]

155 years since the San Diego hurricane.  Don't know what the frequency of those are.  Probably takes the mother of warm ENSO events as well...

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/presentations/ams-sandiego.ppt#14

 

it may IMO pulled a Katrina 67 and hit the northern GOC first before hitting California given that it was in La Paz in late September of 1858. According to the blw, a hurricane was in La Paz a few days earlier.

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=1858+la+paz+hurricane&btnG=Search+Books&tbm=bks&tbo=1

[Ed Lizard]

In rained in Bakersfield in the Summer of 1992 for the first time in I don't remember.  We did a field trip to visit Platform Esther near Long Beach and it was almost Texas like humidity.  I remember it well.

 

And that was a warm ENSO.

 

Imagine SoCal Summer rains in a neutral season?

 

Incroyable!

 

[Yellow Evan]

In rained in Bakersfield in the Summer of 1992 for the first time in I don't remember.  We did a field trip to visit Platform Esther near Long Beach and it was almost Texas like humidity.  I remember it well.

 

 

It was from Darby 92 probs. 1992 PHS is almost like the 2005 AHS of the EPAC, just hate how that season is Cat 5 less.

[HurricaneJosh]

12Z Euro has it weaker and further W.  Blah.

[Yellow Evan]

12Z Euro has it weaker and further W.  Blah.

 

18zGFS shows  not the 94E and the AOIL left of it, but the storm after that coming close. Not all hope is lost.

[HurricaneJosh]

18zGFS shows  not the 94E and the AOIL left of it, but the storm after that coming close. Not all hope is lost.

 

[Yellow Evan]

 

0z and 12z GFS makes it stronger as well, but further way from land.

[Yellow Evan]

Two most recent CMC runs show a TS hitting Sinaloa and a hurricane hitting Baja California Sur in 1o days.

 

In the meantime, 94E looks close to forming.

[HurricaneJosh]

The season sucks but icebreaker's doing a good job with the thread subtitles.  

[icebreaker5221]

The season sucks but icebreaker's doing a good job with the thread subtitles.  

 

Thanks Josh!  I do it just for you