icebreaker5221 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 East Pac Hurricane Season 2013 starts in just 2 days, and there's not even a thread for it yet! Where is Josh?This little guy has the potential to become the first TD of the season, although based on various model projections of 850 mb vort / UL divergence, it could pulse and fizzle out several times before developing a closed surface low. All of the major models are developing something, but it is projected to remain weak. Nothing out of NHC yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 East Pac Hurricane Season 2013 starts in just 2 days, and there's not even a thread for it yet! Where is Josh? This is HIS basin after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 This is HIS basin after all... Has Josh completely disappeared off the face of the earth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Has Josh completely disappeared off the face of the earth? Nah, we still talk on FB and email. He's alive, just not into the weather so much at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 13, 2013 Author Share Posted May 13, 2013 Nah, we still talk on FB and email. He's alive, just not into the weather so much at the moment Well, glad to hear he's still in touch. Guess we need a tight core Cat 3+ to lure him back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Nah, we still talk on FB and email. He's alive, just not into the weather so much at the moment Then something personal must have happened. I hope all is well with him. I just knew something was up when one of Jorge's posts was followed by one of his own in the Atlantic thread. Even allowing someone to post one of Josh's annual threads almost seems sacrilegious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Then something personal must have happened. I hope all is well with him. I just knew something was up when one of Jorge's posts was followed by one of his own in the Atlantic thread. Even allowing someone to post one of Josh's annual threads almost seems sacrilegious. He's fine, just consumed with work and worn out on the the last couple of Atlantic seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 East Pac Hurricane Season 2013 starts in just 2 days, and there's not even a thread for it yet! Where is Josh? This little guy has the potential to become the first TD of the season, although based on various model projections of 850 mb vort / UL divergence, it could pulse and fizzle out several times before developing a closed surface low. All of the major models are developing something, but it is projected to remain weak. Nothing out of NHC yet... avn.jpg Looks like most models are pegging genesis in the 3-4 day range. The GFS has a much more vertically coherent system, while the ECMWF has a weaker and quite a vertically tilted system (probably due to some net westerly shear [strong low-level flow but weak upper level flow]). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 13, 2013 Author Share Posted May 13, 2013 Statistical guidance is fairly aggressive (almost certainly overly-aggressive). That said, the system should be over >29C SSTs for at least the next 4-5 days, and shear and dry air are not prohibitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Hey, guys! Thanks for asking about me. I am totally fine-- like Adam said, I'm just consumed with work right now and maybe feeling a little bit of burnout after so many dud chase season in a row. icebreaker, thanks for filling the void and starting this thread. And, yes, a tight Cat 3 will lure me back. Actually, I'll start posting again after next Tuesday. (I'm a political consultant working on a really tough race, and things will settle down a bit after Election Day.) Talk to y'all soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1245 PM PDT TUE MAY 14 2013FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OFACAPULCO MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLEDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALSPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...ANDROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM PDT TOMORROW. Looks like a vorticity maxima is already apparent on visible: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 80% cherry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Not too shabby for the first invest: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Is there anything going on large scale upward motion wise helping this, or did this develop without that kind of help. (Not using term MJO on purpose, since there seems to be a variety of upward motion things I don't fully understand). I don't see anything, which does NOT mean there isn't something there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIMEGETTING STARTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEENMONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZEDOVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPSAROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAKINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB ANDT1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KTTROPICAL DEPRESSION.THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE DEPRESSIONIS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THATEXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFICWATERS. EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THEVICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SOFAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL. ANORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEMREACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENTAMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUTTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW ASTRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP.THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TOTHE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THEWARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYSBEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ANDAPPROACHES COOLER WATERS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...ITSEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TOKEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIALFORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAKINTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCEMODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 15/1500Z 8.2N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH12H 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH24H 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH36H 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH72H 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH$$FORECASTER BERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 There's a Kelvin wave helping out, Ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 There's a Kelvin wave helping out, Ed Is that something one can readily identify off the Albany page? I shall have to refresh myself on all that for the new season. This page was helpful. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/35415-equatorial-waves/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 One interesting note is the continued disparity between the GFS and ECMWF... The 12z GFS has TD#1 continuing the intensify at a pretty robust clip and becoming a formidable tropical cyclone. The 12z ECMWF on the other hand continues to depict a disjointed surface / mid-level circulation and doesn't really indicate any intensification at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013200 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1612 UTC SHOWED THAT THE DEPRESSION HAD WINDSVERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR A TROPICAL STORM. THE CLOUD PATTERN INVISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED SINCE THE TIME OF THATPASS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICALSTORM. THE INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 35 KT.THE ASCAT PASS ALSO HELPED TO BETTER LOCATE THE LOW-LEVELCENTER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290 DEGREES AT 11KT. ALVIN IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGETHAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MAINLAND MEXICO OVER THEPACIFIC...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE STORMWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ISFORECAST TO AMPLIFY NEAR CALIFORNIA COAST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...CREATINGA WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPLIT IN THE MODELGUIDANCE WITH THE STRONGER GFS AND GFDL SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THENORTH AND THE WEAKER ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUEDWESTWARD MOTION BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITSTHE DIFFERENCE BUT DOES FAVOR THE SCENARIO OF A STRONGERNORTHWESTWARD-TURNING STORM.MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ALVIN REACHING HURRICANESTRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE THEMOST AGGRESSIVE...BUT EVEN THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ALVIN GETTINGSTRONGER THAN WE INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.ALVIN IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER A WARM POOL OF WATER WITH SEA SURFACETEMPERATURES AROUND 30.5C...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMALFOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUESTO SHOW A STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND HAS BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLYFROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3. FASTER STRENGTHENING ISPOSSIBLE...AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX NOW SHOWS A 1 IN 3CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.WEAKENING SHOULD BE UNDERWAY IN 4 TO 5 DAYS MAINLY DUE TO STRONGERVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 15/2100Z 8.7N 105.1W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 16/0600Z 9.3N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 16/1800Z 10.0N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH36H 17/0600Z 10.6N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH48H 17/1800Z 11.1N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH72H 18/1800Z 12.5N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH96H 19/1800Z 14.0N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH120H 20/1800Z 15.5N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH$$FORECASTER BERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 This particular CCKW slips through my filter.. a better way is to look at 200 hPa zonal wind anomalies-> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Every microwave pass in the past 24 hours has looked better than the previous one. There are bands all around the center now, although it is still somewhat disorganized. Low shear, great outflow. It will continue to slowly intensify for now but might really get going tomorrow. Hurricane #1 is on the way. By the way, it's amazing that the TMI is still providing microwave imagery for the 16th hurricane season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Alvin's outflow is very impressive. Very nice ventilation with this system allowing it to continue to intensify: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 So much for that, looks much worse this morning. I had the center in the wrong spot when interpreting the MW imagery yesterday. Conditions remain generally favorable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 One interesting note is the continued disparity between the GFS and ECMWF... The 12z GFS has TD#1 continuing the intensify at a pretty robust clip and becoming a formidable tropical cyclone. The 12z ECMWF on the other hand continues to depict a disjointed surface / mid-level circulation and doesn't really indicate any intensification at all. So much for that, looks much worse this morning. I had the center in the wrong spot when interpreting the MW imagery yesterday. Conditions remain generally favorable though. Looks like the ECMWF has the upper hand currently and Alvin is struggling to maintain its identity within the ITCZ. It certainly looks like the upper-level flow has shifted weak westerly, and given the continued wnw low-level trade winds, the shear isn't likely to abate at all in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 I'd be very surprised if the NHC kept Alvin a tropical cyclone at the next advisory based on this: The CMC and ECMWF did good with this storm. The former showed development into a tropical storm 10 days in advance, and the ECMWF hardly intensified it (didn't at all, really). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 NAVGEM and GFS both show business picking up in a week... And beyond, maybe something crosses over and has a shot at Florida, but that would be baseless, weeniecasting speculation at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Too far West to be GFS/NavGem next week system. Satellite imagery victim of GOES 13 issues. ABPZ20 KNHC 221731TWOEPTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1100 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OFACAPULCO MEXICO...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVESWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_ep912013.investFSTDARU0400100000201305221758NONENOTIFY=ATRPEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 OK, I admit I'm not doing much to earn my A-List Tropical Dude status lately, but I have to say, I'm a little disappointed to pop in here and see zero discussion Re: the EPAC invests, one of which is likely to become a cyclone soon. C'mon, guys. P.S. I know I've been mega-lame lately, but I'll be back on board soon. It's just been a busy few months for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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