ZackH Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 New 12z GFS looks much better for SW KS for Saturday... has what looks to be a big storm going up in a decent environment right near the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 New 12z GFS looks much better for SW KS for Saturday... has what looks to be a big storm going up in a decent environment right near the dryline.Looks like we are moving toward a better onset of enough shear tho the soundings could use some work.. At least where I clicked. Sun looks nice inOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Uh, hello there Sunday on the 12z GFS. Looks rather high-end verbatim. Lots of model mania to get through before the timing is even close to settled, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Looks like we are moving toward a better onset of enough shear tho the soundings could use some work.. At least where I clicked. Sun looks nice inOK. Most definitely, but with that high of CAPE crazy things can happen. But you're right, the profile does leave a bit to be desired. Sunday looks excellent... I hate that it's probably going to be a zoo. Looks like Monday sped up a tiny bit again... but there may be a few decent terrain areas to play still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 New 12z GFS looks much better for SW KS for Saturday... has what looks to be a big storm going up in a decent environment right near the dryline. Nasty hodograph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 On a semi-related note, I think it is kind of cool that this weekend's solutions right now went back to the original ideas from the long range (when this threat was over a week out). Those longer range solutions indicated that Sunday would be the day, not Saturday, for a widespread severe threat and possible tornado episode of some kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 One day early for the thread title, but an interesting environment will exist in N TX this afternoon and evening on the E side of the closed low. I think Thundersnow called this potential several days ago, but I never bothered to look at it seriously until now. RAP progs relatively low LCLs, great low-level turning, and upper-level flow that's likely the best we'll get until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 15, 2013 Author Share Posted May 15, 2013 Timing issues on the speed of the ejection, as alluded earlier, still abound for Sunday but the threat for a substantial severe event are increasing. Height falls and the effect on the mid level temps are substantial, with dry adiabatic lapse rates from 850-550 hpa and some very low T-Td spreads, the CAPE profile is impressive to say the least. These types of huge low level CAPE profiles and very low MLLCLs can produce some ugly results over the plains (or good for chasers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 15, 2013 Author Share Posted May 15, 2013 One day early for the thread title, but an interesting environment will exist in N TX this afternoon and evening on the E side of the closed low. I think Thundersnow called this potential several days ago, but I never bothered to look at it seriously until now. RAP progs relatively low LCLs, great low-level turning, and upper-level flow that's likely the best we'll get until Sunday. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Hats off to the 12z GGEM from yesterday? Regardless of whether its solution is right or wrong, it was the first model to bring in the second piece and phase them more quickly over the NW. Last night's 00z ECMWF went that direction and today's 12z GFS did as well. Looks like the UKMET did too. Interesting...I'm still waiting for the full 12z data but thought it was cool that the GGEM first picked up on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Timing issues on the speed of the ejection, as alluded earlier, still abound for Sunday but the threat for a substantial severe event are increasing. Height falls and the effect on the mid level temps are substantial, with dry adiabatic lapse rates from 850-550 hpa and some very low T-Td spreads, the CAPE profile is impressive to say the least. These types of huge low level CAPE profiles and very low MLLCLs can produce some ugly results over the plains (or good for chasers). Agreed. If the new solutions are finally settled in terms of the bigger pattern (leaving the short-term details to lead to greatest modeling error), suddenly Sunday looks quite productive. All it takes, though, is one little timing error and ....well I won't say it in 2013 but I would if it was 2011, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 One day early for the thread title, but an interesting environment will exist in N TX this afternoon and evening on the E side of the closed low. I think Thundersnow called this potential several days ago, but I never bothered to look at it seriously until now. RAP progs relatively low LCLs, great low-level turning, and upper-level flow that's likely the best we'll get until Sunday. We just got lunch in Abilene.We will drift north to Haskell. Loving how today looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Most definitely, but with that high of CAPE crazy things can happen. But you're right, the profile does leave a bit to be desired. Sunday looks excellent... I hate that it's probably going to be a zoo. Looks like Monday sped up a tiny bit again... but there may be a few decent terrain areas to play still. I'd say a zoo is an understatement with the 12z GFS verbatim, when you consider the various things that have happened this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 I'd say a zoo is an understatement with the 12z GFS verbatim, when you consider the various things that have happened this year. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/storms/tornadoes/story/2012-04-17/storm-tornado-chasers-uproar-kansas/54355372/1 Sorry for the memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Let's get discussion on todays convective activity in the short term thread. Pretty cool system. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40094-southerncentral-plains-obs-and-short-term-discussions/?p=2289625 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 That article/testimony is fine until the officer says that Dean is making a living off of other people's demise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 I love reading and participating in these discussions...days out. It is interesting to read everyone's POV on what could happen. At this point Sunday looks decent but given the last couple years I don't really put much stock in how it looks this far out. In fact if it looks great today, something will likely spoil the show... These systems are somewhat fragile and timing is very important. We'll see if we can get some consistency but I'm trying to refrain from even moderate excitement until Friday. At which point I may start getting a bit more excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 151959Z - 152130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NWRN TX...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLY MATERIALIZING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS N CNTRL TX. DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FROM SRN OK INTO FAR NRN TX...WHERE A MOIST AIR MASS EXISTS AND NO CAPPING. SOME OF THE INCREASE IN CORE INTENSITY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS AREAS OF HEATING UPSTREAM. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...AS DEEP SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 25-30 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS NWRN TX...AND EXTENDING SWD TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL MIDLEVEL AIR. HIGH BASED CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER THE TX S PLAINS...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES E...IT WILL INTERSECT THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. OTHER CELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NWRN TX AS HEATING PERSISTS. NWLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP SURFACE SELYS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WHILE LARGE UPDRAFT ACCELERATION AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. CONGEALING OUTFLOWS WITH TIME SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S...POSSIBLY FORWARD PROPAGATING INTO THE METROPLEX AREA LATER TODAY WITH BOTH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM FARTHER E NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR MAY HAVE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT...WHILE PROPENSITY FOR MERGING OUTFLOWS WITH HIGHER BASED ACTIVITY TO THE W WILL FAVOR WIND AND HAIL. ..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 05/15/2013 ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 FWIW the significant tornado parameter (STP) is up to 1-2 in Central Texas. Perhaps STP will be up to 3 or even 4 later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 It's rather concerning how much near-surface moisture has mixed out compared to progs over much of NW TX. Sfc Td's are running 3-5 F lower than the NAM, and 5-8 F lower than the RAP suggested. However, things look a bit better near and S of I-20, where the best chase target is anyway. Yet another example though of how when areas W of I-35 are in major drought, you need strong low-level winds (with some kind of easterly component) to maintain decent moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 15, 2013 Author Share Posted May 15, 2013 Agreed. If the new solutions are finally settled in terms of the bigger pattern (leaving the short-term details to lead to greatest modeling error), suddenly Sunday looks quite productive. All it takes, though, is one little timing error and ....well I won't say it in 2013 but I would if it was 2011, lol. I love reading and participating in these discussions...days out. It is interesting to read everyone's POV on what could happen. At this point Sunday looks decent but given the last couple years I don't really put much stock in how it looks this far out. In fact if it looks great today, something will likely spoil the show... These systems are somewhat fragile and timing is very important. We'll see if we can get some consistency but I'm trying to refrain from even moderate excitement until Friday. At which point I may start getting a bit more excited Indeed, as Brett mentioned earlier, if the timing is off just a tad, both Sunday and Monday could be all screwed up. ECMWF is still faster ejecting the upper trough Sunday with a sharp front surging south on Monday. GFS op is down the middle of its ensemble on timing, but I would bet most of those faster solutions would yield far less impressive setups. Still a long ways to go on this one, but the ceiling is somewhat high if something close to the 12z GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 HPC appears to be tossing the 12z GFS' timing with the most recent model diagnosis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Still think the NE/SD border holds some potential in the west tomorrow. Main question will be instability, especially if the NAM is overdoing the moisture like it tends to do. But if a storm can get going it may be a surprise. We will be heading down for the main events through that area so if something pops we will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 I believe we may have a tornado near Belcherville, TX. The velocity couplet looks pretty strong, near the hook shape on radar. I see a 100 knot velocity difference based on GRLevel3. AT 538 PM CDT...MULTIPLE STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A RAIN-WRAPPEDTORNADO ONE MILE WEST OF BELCHERVILLE. THE TORNADO IS MOVINGNORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 18z GFS looks pretty decent without spending a long time on the changeable details. Fri soundings look better than 12z.. late fire but still goes up. 700mb temps are pretty toasty tho. I dunno what's too warm this time of year tho. Event just keeps on going too. Would be nice to get like 4 chases in right off the bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 tor pic: https://twitter.com/stormchasrbryce/status/334801657932177408/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160... VALID 152240Z - 152345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 160...WITH THE LARGEST HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS AS WELL MAINLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TX...MONITORING FOR A PARTIAL TORNADO WATCH UPGRADE. DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION PRIMARILY CONCERNS NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WHERE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF A CLUSTERING BAND OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST OF WICHITA FALLS SSW TO GRAHAM AND BROWNWOOD AREAS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHWARD TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEST TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE NOTED NEAR/EAST OF THE CONFLUENT AXIS...WITH A RECENT TREND OF BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW /SOUTHEASTERLY/ AND AS MUCH AS 150-175 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH PER MODIFIED FORT WORTH WSR-88D VWP. THIS SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF AT LEAST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING...SUCH THAT A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2013 ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 18z GFS looks pretty decent without spending a long time on the changeable details. Fri soundings look better than 12z.. late fire but still goes up. 700mb temps are pretty toasty tho. I dunno what's too warm this time of year tho. Event just keeps on going too. Would be nice to get like 4 chases in right off the bat. Gone is the Eastern cut off this run too. Wild shift from the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Gone is the Eastern cut off this run too. Wild shift from the 12Z run. Even tho that solution has shown up on a lot of ops it seems pretty unlikely.. the big closed low dropping south out of the lakes. The ens means never really have shown that. Not sure I'd bank on the GFS pattern but I'm pretty sure this weekend initially looked to be plagued by a lakes low etc. It could happen but I'd guess it lifts northeast quicker than some ops have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Perhaps another tornado with the supercell around Nocona. Low-level mesocyclones appearing more frequently now across portions of the FWD CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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