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850 
WFUS53 KICT 190115
TORICT
KSC009-190200-
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0005.130519T0115Z-130519T0200Z/
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
815 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
 
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT
 
* AT 811 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST
  OF LARNED...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
 
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
 
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.
 
  IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
           SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
           OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
           EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PAWNEE ROCK...ALBERT AND GREAT BEND AIRPORT.
 
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
 

 

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I'm becoming concerned about that storm nw of Lawton and ne of Altus OK.  Looks like some big hail and possible rotation developing.

 

 

Storms there have shot out an outflow boundary to the South and East, I think the tornado potential with them will be limited to nil.

 

The same can be said with the complex along the OK/KS border.

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Storms there have shot out an outflow boundary to the South and East, I think the tornado potential with them will be limited to nil.

 

The same can be said with the complex along the OK/KS border.

Thanks, Stebo.  I need to remind myself to look at base reflectivity loops and not just the composite.

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Sounds like one of the tornadoes did some pretty major damage unfortunately.

 

 

0048   2 W ROZEL PAWNEE KS 3820 9944 TORNADO DAMAGE. ONE HOUSE NEARLY DESTROYED, ROOF AND WALLS GONE. THE 2 RESIDENTS WERE O.K. THE LOCATION IS 2 MILES WEST OF ROZEL ON HIGHWAY 156. (DDC)

 

 

It can be replaced, thankfully no one died.

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Will be curious to hear what this board thinks about tomorrow. I think it looks promising for a short window, but I'm afraid of HP sups and then quickly turning into a big MCS mess. I hope I'm wrong.

 

I'm looking forward to it as well, the mets on the board were in some disagreement earlier today/last night. The local weathermen seem to think the NE KS main threat is hail and the tornado threat is relatively small for our area, they believe SE KS has a significant chance however. This is in contrast to TWC who claims Eastern Kansas as a whole has a large tornado threat.

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Will be curious to hear what this board thinks about tomorrow. I think it looks promising for a short window, but I'm afraid of HP sups and then quickly turning into a big MCS mess. I hope I'm wrong.

 

The 00z NAM did slow the dryline up. So I'm a little happier about that, and I assume the chasers will be as well. It may put some of the bigger cities like Wichita and OKC in a bad situation though. 

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Will be curious to hear what this board thinks about tomorrow. I think it looks promising for a short window, but I'm afraid of HP sups and then quickly turning into a big MCS mess. I hope I'm wrong.

00z NAM rolling in continues to look marginal tomorrow with veered low level flow from N OK into Kansas. It has a much stronger lee low this run, but the leading surface low farther N (and its parent upper anomaly) are too close to the area of potential convection with dry air likely impeding storm formation across OK (where the better kinematics would be). Light years different than the GFS and to a degree the ECMWF, both of which would suggest the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak. I still find it very hard to believe the GFS given the positioning of the upper anomaly moving into NE. That puts the entire warm sector in a very unfavorable location for strong low level backing like the GFS suggests. My guess is something down the middle will verify, with still quite a bit of potential, especially if storms manage to form farther S into Oklahoma. I think there are a lot of things working against a large outbreak, however. 

post-999-0-93694400-1368931517_thumb.png

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Will be curious to hear what this board thinks about tomorrow. I think it looks promising for a short window, but I'm afraid of HP sups and then quickly turning into a big MCS mess. I hope I'm wrong.

 

My area in far Eastern MN is not technically in this sub forum, but I'm liking SE MN more and more for Sunday 05/19.  The Nam doesn't show it much, but the RGEM the GGEM and the GFS all show it.

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My area in far Eastern MN is not technically in this sub forum, but I'm liking SE MN more and more for Sunday 05/19.  The Nam doesn't show it much, but the RGEM the GGEM and the GFS all show it.

i'll wait to see what the new 00z canadian regional run and GFS will do. but from the NAM, first thing i notice is the double-low structure of the system as it moves through. up here in STP it'll be a decent chance as long as we don't get too contaminates by any mcs's late overnight tonight. but there is some help way up with the divergence allowing for some nice ventilation. my main concern will will the double low help, or hurt MN. IA will be a decent bet, as well as eastern KS, eastern NE, most of MO, and even eastern/southeastern OK. but north of i-90 towards i-94, it's going to be a bit marginal, depending on how the setup comes along .

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