Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Cedar Bluff State Park is the warned meso, the Ransom meso is not being warned, but has potential if it gets better organized. Whats that you say? * AT 536 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RANSOM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Wow. Level 3 is showing 92 knots on one side, 53 knots in the other direction, on the other side of this tornado. that's 145 knots. Usually you need Level 2 data to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 There's some wicked moist inflow into that meso... MAXDV doesn't look too weak either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 The storm east of DDC keeps looking better, decent base on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 171... VALID 182252Z - 182345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 171 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREATS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER WRN OK. THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADIC SUPERCELL OR TWO WOULD SEEMINGLY INCREASE IN THE 00Z-02Z PERIOD AS STORMS MOVE TO THE NE AT 20 KT. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS OCCASIONALLY ACQUIRING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE STORMS MOVE TO THE NE AT 20 KT OVER SWRN OK. THE KFDR VWP ONLY SHOWS AROUND 30-35 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...LENDING SOME LIMITATION TO GREATER SUPERCELL STRUCTURE LONGEVITY. NONETHELESS...THE AIRMASS OVER WRN OK FEATURES VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WILL FAVOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL GROWTH WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. CURRENT THINKING IS AN EVENTUAL MORE ROBUST STORM OR TWO WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE FROM THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS. AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IMPROVES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...THE REMAINING INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH STORM-SCALE ROTATION INCREASING IN TANDEM WITH A LLJ FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 40 KT BY 00-01Z. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...RICHER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WWD AND IMPROVE PROSPECTS FOR A TORNADIC SUPERCELL AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Ness/Trego Co storm remains somewhat high based... no funnel or tor attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Ransom complex is within an area of 370 m/s of ESRH MLCLs are near 2380 meters though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY459 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0458 PM TORNADO 10 N BROADWATER 41.74N 102.85W05/18/2013 MORRILL NE STORM CHASER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 The Rosston OK storm will move into Kansas soon, towards Ashland and Protection. This area was noted as being good for tornado potential later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Wow. Level 3 is showing 92 knots on one side, 53 knots in the other direction, on the other side of this tornado. that's 145 knots. Usually you need Level 2 data to see that. i had to change my scales on the bv and srv to handle numbers that high off the hastings radar (was showing numbers on the 0.5 as much as 90-100 kts) but the storm moving into decatur county, ks is looking better by the minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 601 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHEASTERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN TREGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 559 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BROWNELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CEDAR BLUFF...MCCRACKEN...HARGRAVE...RIGA AND ELLIS. NUMEROUS FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Nice wall cloud on the storm near Kinsley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS... NORTHEASTERN NESS...NORTHWESTERN RUSH AND SOUTHEASTERN TREGO COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT... AT 604 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BROWNELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CEDAR BLUFF...MCCRACKEN...HARGRAVE AND ELLIS. AT 603 PM...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A BRIEF RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTH OF ELLIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 571NWUS53 KDDC 182310LSRDDCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS610 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0603 PM TORNADO 5 S ELLIS 38.86N 99.56W05/18/2013 ELLIS KS EMERGENCY MNGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Difference in opinions...Lucio wants to go north to the tor warned cell, Neal wants to play the Kinsley cell, and I want to watch the activity coming out of OK. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Difference in opinions...Lucio wants to go north to the tor warned cell, Neal wants to play the Kinsley cell, and I want to watch the activity coming out of OK. lol I'm dumping the Trego cell to fly S... high based garbage for an hour now. Didn't see the reported tor but was already leaving. Not saying anything else will be better or that this one won't produce later but it's been ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 I'm dumping the Trego cell to fly S... high based garbage for an hour now. Didn't see the reported tor but was already leaving. Not saying anything else will be better or that this one won't produce later but it's been ugly.Thanks for the info. We're gonna play the middle cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 If all these cells would just move a bit more eastward into the richer dews and better parameters and the LLJ kicks in as expected we would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 funnel cloud on MIDSCAR's feed? Edit: He just panned away, but it looked like whatever was there a minute ago was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 McMillan sounds exceedingly nervous about the Trego Co. cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 If that 82/68 at GBD is accurate, hard to argue with that... middle storm should be tracking into that area within the hour. If I could teleport I might jump to the OK/KS border, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Ellis County storm taking on a bit more classic hook last frame. And the meso will be passing pretty close to Hays in about 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 KS/OK border storms have lined out, but last few scans hint at some possible reorganization. Maybe they will get it together once they move into a more favorable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 That Kinsley cell is rapidly organizing, lightning output certainly increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 StormScapeLIVE.TV feed shows clear rotation and a pretty nice base on that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 theres a lot of lightning on the kinsley cell, hopefully it starts to tighten up here soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 That Kinsley cell is rapidly organizing, lightning output certainly increasing. Last two scans show the updraft intensifying with 55kft ETs showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 starting to look like it wants to go. sorry if i have spelling/grammar issues, typing on my tablet while sitting on the side of 183. edit: the sunset is backlighting the cell and it looks pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Listening to the live audio on Bettes/Forbes feed is pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 19, 2013 Author Share Posted May 19, 2013 Both the Hayes storm and the middle cell south of it are entering much more primed environments....with the kinematics ramping up in the next 2 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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