Coreyback Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 The Utica storm probably has the best chance to be tornado warned, but still has organizational issues and other factors to overcome, notably high LCLs (noted above) and weak 0-1km shear...if you go with the SPC mesoanalysis. Still, warned for tennis ball-sized hail for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 The "Utica" complex is a total mess right now. That particular updraft is now transferring west to near Ransom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 I just reported a rotating WC/funnel on SN... W of Hoxie. Filmed it, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 The 2Close stream on chasertv just had a funnel on the Ness City cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 The "Utica" complex is a total mess right now. That particular updraft is now transferring west to near Ransom Yeah I don't see that becoming very organized at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Yeah I don't see that becoming very organized at all. Still at least 3 updrafts within it. Nothing else really looks promising in KS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 I just reported a rotating WC/funnel on SN... W of Hoxie. Filmed it, too. Any pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Any pics? I only had time to shoot a little vid, then made the report, then it was gone. I'll try to get a vidcap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Also, an update on the 18z models, the NAM continues to stubbornly refuse to back the sfc winds ahead of the dryline tomorrow, while the GFS continues to look very potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2013 Author Share Posted May 18, 2013 These storms really are not in a great environment...it isn't a surprise they look a bit disorganized. I think it will be cells forming in the Panhandle that eventually propagate into SW KS that will eventually develop into more organized supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 These storms really are not in a great environment...it isn't a surprise they look a bit disorganized. I think it will be cells forming in the Panhandle that eventually propagate into SW KS that will eventually develop into more organized supercells. Agreed, they should be timed nicely with the LLJ intensification later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Here it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Here it is: IMG_1825.JPG Looks like raggedy scud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Looks like raggedy scud Yeah that's not a wall cloud and a funnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 These guys have really been on the ball today http://content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=13051&C=20636&O=10679 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 We're still sitting in Greensburg watching the cells to the southwest near Buffalo. If anything gets going, it will probably be those as they move northeast into better moisture. I recall a certain supercell back on 2007 that looked crappy in the OK Panhandle, but became organized as it moved northeast into Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Yeah that's not a wall cloud and a funnel. It was. You didn't see it. Still images never tell the whole story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 First TW... In NE BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 412 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN DAWES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 445 PM MDT * AT 410 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOX BUTTE CAMPGROUND...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0515 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN CO / WRN-SWRN NE / PORTIONS OF WRN KSCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...VALID 182215Z - 182315ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.SUMMARY...A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL PREDOMINATE OVERTHE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM WRN NE S AND SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS.THE TORNADO THREAT WILL SEEMINGLY INCREASE AROUND 00Z ANDTHEREAFTER.DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DRYLINE FROMTHE NE PANHANDLE AND ARCING SEWD TO A DRYLINE BULGE OVER SWRN KSNEAR DDC. FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG AND INAREAS ADJACENTLY E OF THE DRYLINE OVER WRN KS INTO WRN NEB FEATURESDEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S --CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLESURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS 20-30 DEG F. UNTIL THESE SPREADS ANDLCL/S BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AND LOW LEVEL SHEARSTRENGTHENS...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG WINDS WILL BETHE MAIN THREATS.AS OF 2215Z...WDSS-II SHOWS THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS OVERNESS/TREGO COUNTIES IN KS. AS THIS SUPERCELL CLUSTER SLOWLY MOVESTO THE N...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS IMMEDIATEVICINITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...SMITH.. 05/18/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 NW of Ness City looks really good now that a new 50kft updraft blew up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Rapid rotation on 2Close's stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 The northern supercell (of the 2) in Trego county has a nice 170 knots of storm top divergence. Should be dropping baseballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 The cell northwest of Greensburg is starting to look a little better from where I'm parked watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Just texted the 2close guys about the rotation. They're right on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Funnel cloud now. Edit: Gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Which cell? Utica? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 2Close just filmed this funnel on the cell NW of Ness City. Dissipated rather quickly, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 534 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN TREGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 531 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CEDAR BLUFF...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Tornado Warning Triego ad Ness again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Cedar Bluff State Park is the warned meso, the Ransom meso is not being warned, but has potential if it gets better organized. Now the Ransom one is warned as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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