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The Utica storm probably has the best chance to be tornado warned, but still has organizational issues and other factors to overcome, notably high LCLs (noted above) and weak 0-1km shear...if you go with the SPC mesoanalysis.

 

Still, warned for tennis ball-sized hail for now.

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These storms really are not in a great environment...it isn't a surprise they look a bit disorganized.  I think it will be cells forming in the Panhandle that eventually propagate into SW KS that will eventually develop into more organized supercells.

 

Agreed, they should be timed nicely with the LLJ intensification later on.

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We're still sitting in Greensburg watching the cells to the southwest near Buffalo. If anything gets going, it will probably be those as they move northeast into better moisture. I recall a certain supercell back on 2007 that looked crappy in the OK Panhandle, but became organized as it moved northeast into Kansas.

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First TW...

 

In NE

 

 

 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
412 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN DAWES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...
 
* UNTIL 445 PM MDT
 
* AT 410 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOX BUTTE CAMPGROUND...AND
  MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.
 
  HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.
 
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
 
  IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
           SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
           OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
           EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN CO / WRN-SWRN NE / PORTIONS OF WRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...

VALID 182215Z - 182315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL PREDOMINATE OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM WRN NE S AND SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS.
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL SEEMINGLY INCREASE AROUND 00Z AND
THEREAFTER.


DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DRYLINE FROM
THE NE PANHANDLE AND ARCING SEWD TO A DRYLINE BULGE OVER SWRN KS
NEAR DDC. FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG AND IN
AREAS ADJACENTLY E OF THE DRYLINE OVER WRN KS INTO WRN NEB FEATURES
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S --CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS 20-30 DEG F. UNTIL THESE SPREADS AND
LCL/S BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
STRENGTHENS...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

AS OF 2215Z...WDSS-II SHOWS THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS OVER
NESS/TREGO COUNTIES IN KS. AS THIS SUPERCELL CLUSTER SLOWLY MOVES
TO THE N...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..SMITH.. 05/18/2013

 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

534 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN TREGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

 

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

 

* AT 531 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CEDAR BLUFF...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25

  MPH.

 

  HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

 

  IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

           SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL

           OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.

           EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
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