ZackH Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 On our way do Greensburg... almost to Hays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Where you going? Grabbing lunch in WWR right now and taking in the delightful 93/45 Gulf air :-/. Current obs and hi-res modeling seem to suggest there's a pocket of bad air currently over NW OK that will slowly advect up through the day, with a second moisture surge behind it. This would effectively bifurcate the two targets and force us to choose (KS/NE border vs. OK/KS border) fairly early, which scares me. Leaning toward south for now but I can't help but think the north end will have the least issues with mixing out and high LCLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2013 Author Share Posted May 18, 2013 Good luck to all the chasers today. I think we have more folks on this board chasing/posting about an event than we have ever had. I expect to see some good pictures from someone tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Seems a lot of negative nancy's out there for tomorrow. I just got home and have been looking at the models. Seems to me that OK has some potent dynamics setting up that should yield ample chase opportunities and perhaps a few strong tornadoes. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Grabbing lunch in WWR right now and taking in the delightful 93/45 Gulf air :-/. Current obs and hi-res modeling seem to suggest there's a pocket of bad air currently over NW OK that will slowly advect up through the day, with a second moisture surge behind it. This would effectively bifurcate the two targets and force us to choose (KS/NE border vs. OK/KS border) fairly early, which scares me. Leaning toward south for now but I can't help but think the north end will have the least issues with mixing out and high LCLs. Cool, thanks for your thoughts. I think we're more or less on the same page. The fact that the south end is closer to tomorrow might be a decider.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 part of the new day 2 moderate for tomorrow, which looks to be a bit more west of I-35. GIVEN THE EXPECTED INTENSE HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE THERE IS AMPLEREASON TO BELIEVE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL EVOLVEINITIALLY NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET CORE ACROSS KS...THEN SWD INTOOK. THIS MAY OCCUR BY 21Z OVER KS AND BY 20/00Z ACROSS OK TO NEARTHE RED RIVER. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR LONG-LIVEDSUPERCELLS AND WHERE DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER70S...TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXPECTEDSHEAR/INSTABILITY THERE IS SUPPORT FOR STRONG TORNADOES.ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.MATURING COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS KS/NERN OK INTOWRN MO WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 To you guys who are chasing on this forum: Stay safe, and good luck! Post your pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 part of the new day 2 moderate for tomorrow, which looks to be a bit more west of I-35. Depends on if the NAM is right. The NAM would have the threat farther east while the GFS would be a bit farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2013 Author Share Posted May 18, 2013 Just going to lay it out right now for everyone to consider later...but please try and keep the discussion clean and on-topic with minimal "OMG" or other one word posts. Try and keep the clutter out. If you post a warning and then see someone else did as well, please delete it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Currently 77/73 North Enid OK...Wind SE 12 Fog/Mist I am amazed at how far north significant moisture is advecting. Certainly adds fuel to whatever happens. I would opt for the southern target of southern KS/northern OK if I were chasing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 part of the new day 2 moderate for tomorrow, which looks to be a bit more west of I-35. GIVEN THE EXPECTED INTENSE HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE THERE IS AMPLE REASON TO BELIEVE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL EVOLVE INITIALLY NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET CORE ACROSS KS...THEN SWD INTO OK. THIS MAY OCCUR BY 21Z OVER KS AND BY 20/00Z ACROSS OK TO NEAR THE RED RIVER. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND WHERE DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHEAR/INSTABILITY THERE IS SUPPORT FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. MATURING COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS KS/NERN OK INTO WRN MO WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK. they must not read the forum .. siding with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 The 12z 4km WRF is absolutely insane for OK tomorrow afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2013 Author Share Posted May 18, 2013 they must not read the forum .. siding with the gfs. We span the spectrum of cumet/TornadoTony going with the potential for a high end tornado outbreak to Brettjrob thinking 15% hatched slight risk would be overkill. Those three posters are probably the best 3 severe mets we have as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 We span the spectrum of cumet/TornadoTony going with the potential for a high end tornado outbreak to Brettjrob thinking 15% hatched slight risk would be overkill. Those three posters are probably the best 3 severe mets we have as well.Yeah I agree. I do like SPC reasoning and think the GFS has been consistent enough to be tempted to buy it. Clearly they are uncertain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 SE KS/NE OK seems to be the spots to really watch tomorrow afternoon/evening from what I can tell, is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2013 Author Share Posted May 18, 2013 Yeah I agree. I do like SPC reasoning and think the GFS has been consistent enough to be tempted to buy it. Clearly they are uncertain as well. I think, from a chasers perspective, it really doesn't matter a ton. The potential is high even if things remain quite isolated. I would be surprised if any chasers out today stayed home for tomorrow. They will be out there regardless. I still think Monday has serious outbreak potential, but then I don't know much. Still have a lot of synoptics/mesoscale that needs to get worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 We span the spectrum of cumet/TornadoTony going with the potential for a high end tornado outbreak to Brettjrob thinking 15% hatched slight risk would be overkill. Those three posters are probably the best 3 severe mets we have as well. Well, I meant 15% hatched tor, which is MDT. The 4km WRF that Thundersnow referenced is making my hesitation look pretty stupid, though. DL holds back on the OK/TX PH border through the afternoon with a much more favorable orientation than the op NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Well, I meant 15% hatched tor, which is MDT. The 4km WRF that Thundersnow referenced is making my hesitation look pretty stupid, though. DL holds back on the OK/TX PH border through the afternoon with a much more favorable orientation than the op NAM. Based on the 4km WRF, where do you foresee the hatched area being? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 SE KS/NE OK seems to be the spots to really watch tomorrow afternoon/evening from what I can tell, is that correct? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/dsp/dsp.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 I think, from a chasers perspective, it really doesn't matter a ton. The potential is high even if things remain quite isolated. I would be surprised if any chasers out today stayed home for tomorrow. They will be out there regardless. I still think Monday has serious outbreak potential, but then I don't know much. Still have a lot of synoptics/mesoscale that needs to get worked out. Putting the Sunday potential aside for now, agree with this, the timing of that second vort max and associated jet streak looks pretty ideal at this time. The NAM actually has an even wider area in OK uncapped at 21z, but both the 12z GFS and NAM both wipe it out across the dryline with 3000-4000+ J/kg of SBCAPE waiting for the storms that do fire. The UL diffluence over the area looks ideal (and the flow embedded within that doesn't look that weak either, which should help ramp up 0-8 km shear), with that interaction with the sub-tropical jet enhancing it significantly. If these trends continue with the 00z suite (barring changes in the evolution of prior convection), I'd venture that another D2 moderate is coming with the next update (we're already almost there anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Based on the 4km WRF, where do you foresee the hatched area being? Well, keep in mind the 4 km is remarkably different from both the NAM and GFS right now. But if it has the right idea, I'd expect 15% hatched type probs over the western 2/3 of OK into adjacent S KS, with perhaps a HIGH centered somewhere in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Monday has favorable parameters across a much larger area than today or sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Also, man this moisture is high-quality stuff, I got 78/75 at Enid and 83/75 at OKC from the latest mesoanalysis, with widespread 70s across OK and pushing into Southern KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 So who thinks the new area of Cu near Hugoton is gonna do something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Also, man this moisture is high-quality stuff Yeah, I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Going to sit in Greensburg for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2013 Author Share Posted May 18, 2013 So who thinks the new area of Cu near Hugoton is gonna do something? Hi-res guidance has consistently been pegging that area for initiation as the upper low slowly ejects into the high plains and the surface low tightens. We will see...some incredibly high bases on those should it go. That is definitely a scenario...with the activity tracking east into the much more favorable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Passing through Greensburg now. Last time I did I saw tornadoes that day (5/19/12) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 First svr warning today for this system up north from Rapid City in Lawrence/Meade Counties. As we get into this series of events let's remember that our custom is that it is okay to post warnings initially but as things get fast and furious to only then place tor warnings with confirmation and relevant observations/significant hail reports or local storm reports to help avoid clutter. I love radar images that many of you can post since I am basically limited to NWS images. And since we have a number of people from this forum out chasing in the plains for this system let's try to assist and not hinder them as much as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Local news weather is saying high hail threat and low to very low tornado threat for Topeka tomorrow, not sure that I'm seeing what they're seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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