patrick7032 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 I actually thought the latest GFS runs look less impressive, with more veering (from a dprog/dt sense) than previous runs which were ejecting a weaker initial shortwave into the central plains (in the vicinity of KS/NE)...and therefore veering the flow much less. It seems the first wave coming out of the Rockies will have a much bigger influence than earlier GFS runs were progging. FWIW...as of late with the outbreak in our area last week...and esp with todays event...the 12z NAM nailed it...and over the last few events...we have basically used the NAM iand euro. Just a minor observation...saying it's the "right one"...but locally it has done quite well the last two weeks (the NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Also, holy crap on tomorrow night along the KS/OK border. Yikes. The only caveat to that (other than if the cap does end up holding) is if we see any sort of veer-back-veer like the NAM has. Given the height field, though, that seems more like a hiccup to me than something realistic (convectively contaminated?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2013 Author Share Posted May 18, 2013 Also, holy crap on tomorrow night along the KS/OK border. Yikes. The only caveat to that (other than if the cap does end up holding) is if we see any sort of veer-back-veer like the NAM has. Given the height field, though, that seems more like a hiccup to me than something realistic (convectively contaminated?). It has been showing that for days...seems to be worse across NW Kanasas. Either way, there is so much low level curvature and insane MLCAPE I don't know if it matters in terms of strong tornado potential. Models have even uglier S curved hodos across N Texas the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Day 2 moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Wow, that's a serious hatched area for hail o_O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 day 2 mod large 45% area (im located between the 30% and 45% just south of central kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2013 Author Share Posted May 18, 2013 Side note...Patrick Marsh was part of that convective outlook. Great guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Hmm, widespread severe wind damage MCS or supercells Sunday evening/night. This sucks for me, lol THEGREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST ACROSS ECNTRL OK AND SE KS WHERE 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 400 M2/S2 IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME. DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CELLS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT. SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED DURING THE EVENING IF A LINEAR MCS CAN ORGANIZE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Just left for KS with Lucio/Neal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Just left for KS with Lucio/Neal. Jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Side note...Patrick Marsh was part of that convective outlook. Great guy. It was an excellent read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 It has been showing that for days...seems to be worse across NW Kanasas. Either way, there is so much low level curvature and insane MLCAPE I don't know if it matters in terms of strong tornado potential. Models have even uglier S curved hodos across N Texas the other day. It will matter if storm mode struggles to remain discrete. Maybe not totally matter, but it will matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2013 Author Share Posted May 18, 2013 It will matter if storm mode struggles to remain discrete. Maybe not totally matter, but it will matter. You know what I mean. I guess what I was referencing was areas farther S across southern KS/N OK where it is not nearly as pronounced....and even non-existent. And I don't think the backed flow aloft farther N is convectively enhanced. Most of the upper forcing is well above 500 hpa where the anomaly is much more defined. That area is much more difluent along the southern periphery of the UL jet, so it does make sense that the UL flow may back around/weaken substantially across N KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timbo64 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 This is the tower cam located on the Golden Spike Tower at Union Pacific's Bailey Yard, the world's biggest rail yard, located in North Platte, Nebraska.I live in Alabama and I find this webcam is a good way to watch the sky in that part of the country.The webcam should be interesting to watch tomorrow as North Platte is located in the moderate risk area.http://www.goldenspiketower.com/webcam.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 You know what I mean. I guess what I was referencing was areas farther S across southern KS/N OK where it is not nearly as pronounced....and even non-existent. And I don't think the backed flow aloft farther N is convectively enhanced. Most of the upper forcing is well above 500 hpa where the anomaly is much more defined. That area is much more difluent along the southern periphery of the UL jet, so it does make sense that the UL flow may back around/weaken substantially across N KS. I think we're on the same page. The NAM is pretty backed aloft even near the border, but that doesn't seem terribly consistent with the synoptic height fields. It has pretty strongly cross-isobaric flow across srn KS at 200-250 hPa that just doesn't seem plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 I'm settled in Greensburg tonight with the expectation that if I have to head anywhere too far tomorrow, it could be back south into OK. Otherwise, I'm in a good spot and get to sleep in till noon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Obviously most people are asleep, but when you wake up, take a look at the 6z GFS for Sunday...and Monday for that matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Obviously most people are asleep, but when you wake up, take a look at the 6z GFS for Sunday... What hour and what area? I'm feeling lazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 What hour and what area? I'm feeling lazy 42 and 66 hours, check the COD page for maximum "effect". Oh, and how's this for subliminal messaging on Monday? Check out the shape of the high SCP values... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 42 and 66 hours, check the COD page for maximum "effect". Oh, and how's this for subliminal messaging on Monday? Check out the shape of the high SCP values... Haha flaccid !Can only get twister data up to 48 hours, but wow...: quite the numbers." By KOKC. Lcl's look plenty low enough too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 While looking at soundings...I had to share this. You don't often see (unless I'm wrong...correct me if I am) see EHI's above 17 with showalter indicies of -9 (-10 an hour earlier)...WOWSERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowleveljet Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 My chief and I are getting ready to head out west later this morning to western OK/southern KS. Everyone stay safe out there today (and the next several days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 just looking at the morning soundings today... most of nebraska and southeastern SD are a go given the LBF RAOB. western Kansas and OK are a go, but will take a bit of time due to a stronger cap at DDC, but the dryline out there should kick it (seen on AMA). eastern OK and eastern KS, it's a matter of "will the cap break" from OUN and TOP, because if it breaks it gets ugly. minnesota, western IA, and northeastern SD, it's wait and see what develops upstream and then go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Over under the number of chasers on the I-83 corridor today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Over under the number of chasers on the I-83 corridor today? i-83 between BWI and MDT, 0. US 83 in the plains, i'll bet on 500 +/- 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Ouch, 12Z NAM continues and builds on trend of not looking so great for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Ouch, 12Z NAM continues and builds on trend of not looking so great for Sunday. Only model that is at this stand point and the NAM has several countless weird things about it starting with today. Case in point this http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40273-fun-visualization-of-effects-of-model-convection/?p=2292754 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Only model that is at this stand point and the NAM has several countless weird things about it starting with today. Case in point this http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40273-fun-visualization-of-effects-of-model-convection/?p=2292754 Thinking we can put more confidence in the GFS at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Ouch, 12Z NAM continues and builds on trend of not looking so great for Sunday. Maybe up in your area, but things are turning bad (more tornadic) down here. Especially around 00z-03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Maybe up in your area, but things are turning bad (more tornadic) down here. Especially around 00z-03z. Yeah, should have clarified that I meant KS; Missouri and Northward definitely look more promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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