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Everyone who appreciates Plains storms should be glued to Charles Edwards' stream right now. Textbook structure with a jaw-droppingly beautiful funnel (likely tornado) continues. Reminds me a bit of a shot from an early tornado on the 5/29/04 Harper Co. storm. Easily the most photogenic scene of the year thus far.

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Everyone who appreciates Plains storms should be glued to Charles Edwards' stream right now. Textbook structure with a jaw-droppingly beautiful funnel (likely tornado) continues. Reminds me a bit of a shot from an early tornado on the 5/29/04 Harper Co. storm. Easily the most photogenic scene of the year thus far.

 

torsunset4cropped.png

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Everyone who appreciates Plains storms should be glued to Charles Edwards' stream right now. Textbook structure with a jaw-droppingly beautiful funnel (likely tornado) continues. Reminds me a bit of a shot from an early tornado on the 5/29/04 Harper Co. storm. Easily the most photogenic scene of the year thus far.

Any screen grabs for us mobile/no flash users?! Lol

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
757 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0751 PM TORNADO ELIASVILLE 32.95N 98.75W
05/17/2013 STEPHENS TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

HOUSE NEAR ELIASVILLE TOOK DIRECT HIT FROM TORNADO. NO
DETAILS YET.

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Any screen grabs for us mobile/no flash users?! Lol

 

Unfortunately, I didn't grab any during the brief window they had the webcam set up for the best shot. But I'll bet you a tank of $4 Plains gas there'll be some phenomenal photos spreading on social media later tonight.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

757 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0751 PM TORNADO ELIASVILLE 32.95N 98.75W

05/17/2013 STEPHENS TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

HOUSE NEAR ELIASVILLE TOOK DIRECT HIT FROM TORNADO. NO

DETAILS YET.

Looked like a slow mover too, which is a bit worrying.

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Guys I am out of town and don't have my PC. Buddy of mine sent me a text and said the NAM has fallen apart for Sunday???? Can anyone confirm or tell me that isn't the case?

The NAM has never really been that excited about Sunday across OK/southern KS since it came into its forecast range. It has depicted relatively poor moisture quality and only has shown 60-65 dewpoints ahead of the dryline, which would not be good enough for a high-end tornado threat. If there is a lot of mixing and dewpoints drop quite a bit in central/south TX tomorrow, that might be a sign that the NAM is onto something. The GFS is a lot more moist, but it has a bias in that direction. 

 

The NAM thinks the big day in OK will be Monday, as it depicts a lot more moisture and better environments overall. Both Sunday and Monday are 48+ hours away (relative to the 12Z/18Z NAM) and a little outside of the NAM's wheelhouse (if it even has one). 

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The NAM has never really been that excited about Sunday across OK/southern KS since it came into its forecast range. It has depicted relatively poor moisture quality and only has shown 60-65 dewpoints ahead of the dryline, which would not be good enough for a high-end tornado threat. If there is a lot of mixing and dewpoints drop quite a bit in central/south TX tomorrow, that might be a sign that the NAM is onto something. The GFS is a lot more moist, but it has a bias in that direction. 

 

The NAM thinks the big day in OK will be Monday, as it depicts a lot more moisture and better environments overall. Both Sunday and Monday are 48+ hours away (relative to the 12Z/18Z NAM) and a little outside of the NAM's wheelhouse (if it even has one). 

SPC mesoanalysis already has 70 DP's surging into KS, and almost across the whole state of OK.

post-89-0-46374600-1368841809_thumb.gif

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Not to get ahead of ourselves, but if the timing of second shortwave and associated lee low is right on Monday across portions of OK...and the CAP can be sufficiently eroded, another potential local high end event is possible if the NAM/ECMWF come closer to verifying than the GFS. Either way, we are easily looking at potentially the most active three days of spring this year.

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00z NAM looks like it fires a powerful supercell along the KS/OK border around 21z and tracks it right through the areas with the highest parameters into the evening tomorrow.

 

It also looks slower with a more defined s/w rotating around the base of the trough on Sunday (and also cooler aloft).

 

Edit: Pretty nasty looking verbatim for Oklahoma.

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00z NAM looks like it fires a powerful supercell along the KS/OK border around 21z and tracks it right through the areas with the highest parameters into the evening tomorrow.

 

It also looks slower with a more defined s/w rotating around the base of the trough on Sunday (and also cooler aloft).

 

Edit: Pretty nasty looking verbatim for Oklahoma.

 

Looks like a pretty fast moving MCS for here Sunday evening/night, I'd rather have that than supercells. 

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00z NAM looks like it fires a powerful supercell along the KS/OK border around 21z and tracks it right through the areas with the highest parameters into the evening tomorrow.

It also looks slower with a more defined s/w rotating around the base of the trough on Sunday (and also cooler aloft).

Edit: Pretty nasty looking verbatim for Oklahoma.

Intense isolated supercell developing along the Kansas/Oklahoma border, and moving into great tornado parameters? Sounds familiar...
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FWIW, the weather channel's RPM model develops widespread Dryline supercells in Kansas tomorrow... If that were to verify, things could get pretty interesting... Dr. Forbes also increased the TOR:CON for south-central KS to a six, and are considering a seven... TWC has seemed really optimistic about this weekend stating that "long-track tornadoes" are a definite possibility... Albeit from the weather channel, but still worth a mention.

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00z NAM looks like it fires a powerful supercell along the KS/OK border around 21z and tracks it right through the areas with the highest parameters into the evening tomorrow.

 

It also looks slower with a more defined s/w rotating around the base of the trough on Sunday (and also cooler aloft).

 

Edit: Pretty nasty looking verbatim for Oklahoma.

 

Having some data issues getting to North Platte.  Having a hard time bringing up model data... are you talking about Tomorrow night or Sunday night, Andy?

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Having some data issues getting to North Platte.  Having a hard time bringing up model data... are you talking about Tomorrow night or Sunday night, Andy?

 

I believe he's talking about tomorrow for the 21z OK/KS border part.

 

FWIW, the 00z 4 km NAM nest initiates explosively down the dryline between 21z-00z. I really think this could be quite the event if we get 3-5 storms, instead of just one or two.

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I believe he's talking about tomorrow for the 21z OK/KS border part.

FWIW, the 00z 4 km NAM nest initiates explosively down the dryline between 21z-00z. I really think this could be quite the event if we get 3-5 storms, instead of just one or two.

Especially with those ridiculous long-curving hodographs the NAM has over that area with the crazy EHI's...
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