Ian Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Guys I am out of town and don't have my PC. Buddy of mine sent me a text and said the NAM has fallen apart for Sunday???? Can anyone confirm or tell me that isn't the case?Didn't the nam suck for tomorrow yesterday? Too much model watching sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Didn't the nam suck for tomorrow yesterday? Too much model watching sometimes. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Storms in TX moving into pretty unstable environments within the next hour or so. SPC Mesoanalysis showing CAPE values AOA 5000 J/Kg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Too early to call, c'mon now.Obviously there's not much of a chance to see a high-risk.. All I was stating was that there seems to be potential for an isolated significant tornado, hence "high risk POTENTIAL," or rather "high-end potential" as DDC put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Storms in TX moving into pretty unstable environments within the next hour or so. SPC Mesoanalysis showing CAPE values AOA 5000 J/Kg That area is capped though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Exactly.Could def see the northern target be best Sunday .. The 500 evolution still favors that tho the soundings are iffy. Could be a mess for sure. But still looks pretty good overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I would be absolutely shocked if tomorrow was a high risk, personally. I'm not a fan of the backed upper level winds for a big outbreak, not to mention the storm coverage especially further south. Although given the intensity of the instability and helicity parameters, the threat for isolated significant tornadoes does exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I would be absolutely shocked if tomorrow was a high risk, personally. I'm not a fan of the backed upper level winds for a big outbreak, not to mention the storm coverage especially further south. Although given the intensity of the instability and helicity parameters, the threat for isolated significant tornadoes does exist. Yeah, I don't think we'll see a high risk at all tomorrow unless we see a very significant signal for greater storm coverage and perhaps a longer period of a weak cap in succeeding model runs. Still, like Umscheid stated in the AFD, it could take only one big supercell to create a huge problem in such phenomenal shear and instability. Fortunately this is taking place in a less populated area than Sunday and Monday, but, of course there are a number of towns dotted throughout Western KS and SW NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 i'd probably be good with slight or moderate risk, but hatch the area for potentially significant tornadoes/hail/winds, and put it in the discussion something to the effect of "there is a fairly strong cap over the region, but some models are showing the possibility that if it breaks, any storm in the area may become extremely strong in intensity of hail or strength of tornadoes very quickly". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 i'd probably be good with slight or moderate risk, but hatch the area for potentially significant tornadoes/hail/winds, and put it in the discussion something to the effect of "there is a fairly strong cap over the region, but some models are showing the possibility that if it breaks, any storm in the area may become extremely strong in intensity of hail or strength of tornadoes very quickly". It's already a moderate now, I don't see them downgrading unless it really goes in the tank. So it at least a low end moderate is likely. Personally I think a higher end mod, but what do I know, I'm just a weenie who nowcasts, lol. I leave the forecasting to the knowledgable people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Looks like 2 or 3 supercells collided around Graham, Texas. 3" hail at Newcastle, TX. An obvious RFD/hook is pushing out of the storm. I suppose there could be a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Meso extends to over 25,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 The fact that tomorrow is already a Moderate Risk, I can understand if it is upgraded to a High, based simply on model agreement on the collocation of the best shear and instability and the proximity to populated areas regardless of whether or not overall spatial coverage is on the lower end of the spectrum compared to previous High Risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 This may need a warning shortly, rotation increasing with each scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 TOR just sent out for Young Co. supercell. Warning states that a developing tornado is observed, though I don't see it on streams (which do show nice structure). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 This sucker is tracking right for Breckenridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Tornado warning. "Developing tornado spotted" It's a large hook shape. Level 3 data is catching a 115 knot max delta V. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 The fact that tomorrow is already a Moderate Risk, I can understand if it is upgraded to a High, based simply on model agreement on the collocation of the best shear and instability and the proximity to populated areas regardless of whether or not overall spatial coverage is on the lower end of the spectrum compared to previous High Risks.Sort of like April 14th last year, I'm not talking about setup, or that there will be a massive tornado outbreak whatsoever... But the fact that the storm coverage was definitely in question but because of the terrific shear, and ok instability, and the fact that there was going to be at least isolated supercells the SPC issued a high because of the high-end potential.Now of course the models had been showing a significant tornado risk for numerous consecutive days in that event, and this has only shown up for a day, so obvious descrepancy there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Classic supercell structure. Probably quite photogenic looking north towards the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Charles Edwards has a nice base on his feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 110 kts GTG on that storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Tallest radar sig I've ever seen. 72K+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Anybody got any chaser links to watch the storm in TX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Sort of like April 14th last year, I'm not talking about setup, or that there will be a massive tornado outbreak whatsoever... But the fact that the storm coverage was definitely in question but because of the terrific shear, and ok instability, and the fact that there was going to be at least isolated supercells the SPC issued a high because of the high-end potential. Now of course the models had been showing a significant tornado risk for numerous consecutive days in that event, and this has only shown up for a day, so obvious descrepancy there... I'm not quite understanding why the SPC outlook seems to matter so much to several here. Let's just see what happens tomorrow with the actual weather. As a few people have already said, coverage, location, and lack of strong deep-layer shear all make it extremely unlikely that we'll see an upgrade. Like, less than a 10% chance, IMO. This is not comparable to April 14 in terms of deep-layer shear, nor the degree of forcing to initiate widespread convection (I realize the cap was a question that day, but forcing was much stronger and more widespread nonetheless). Deep-layer shear matters, and borderline magnitudes can easily inhibit a mega-outbreak from occurring. Instead, we may be dealing with more isolated beasts that are slow-moving, and thus cover less ground with any tornado tracks. Basically, most everything about tomorrow's setup is ideal from a chaser's perspective, even if it might fall short of the top-tier from a public impacts perspective. And that, of course, is what the SPC outlooks address. Regardless, if a few kinks (e.g., slightly lackluster speed and directional shear above H5) are worked out, it should be a great day for chasers and for those viewing streams, radar, etc. Might as well enjoy the storms themselves, after all this waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 110 kts GTG on that storm now. What exactly does gate to gate mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 I have noticed a few model runs in the past 24 hours have indicated initiation Sunday evening in OK/SC KS along a retreating dryline. I've lived in OK my whole life and can't recall a sig event with such a setup. Anyone more knowledgeable than me have thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Possible tornado developing on Sinner Storm Chasing feed on chasertv.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 Not sure how current it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2013 Share Posted May 18, 2013 110 kts GTG on that storm now. Yeah, looks like a new meso on radar, and Edwards' stream shows a nice lowering. EDIT: Looks like TOG on Sinner's stream beneath awesome structure. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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