SquatchinNY Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Wow. Intense parameter output! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 lol Tornado warning in Wyoming 419 WFUS55 KRIW 172115 TORRIW WYC019-172200- /O.NEW.KRIW.TO.W.0002.130517T2115Z-130517T2200Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 315 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING... * UNTIL 400 PM MDT * AT 314 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR I25 MILE MARKER 240...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Pretty strong couplet on that thing SE of Kaycee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Lawwdd mountain meteorology has got to be difficult. I couldn't deal with areas being completely blocked from radar by terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Storm SSW of Chadron looks good on radar, as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 For Pratt, KS ... at 03z, the NAM has a SWEAT index of 745.6 and a 0-3km EHI of 21.1 ..... these are insanely high I literally can't remember the last date I saw EHI forecasts over 20 on the Plains, but it *might* have happened on the Greensburg day after dark. Speaking of which, if supercells continue fighting off the cap into the 02-05z timeframe tomorrow, there's some serious high-end potential (likely isolated, but high-impact nonetheless). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Zack H just sent me a text saying the Chadron storm had a funnel on it at some point in the last 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Snippet from Umscheid in the afternoon DDC AFD: BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE JET CORE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCENORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE DAKOTAS. FARWESTERN KANSAS WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT-ENTRANCEREGION OF THIS LEAD JET...PROVIDING THE NECESSARY UPWARD VERTICALMOTION TO PROMOTE ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT OF ACYCLONE. THE LATEST NAM12 MODEL SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW DOWN TO 994OR 995MB BY LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COLORADO-KANSASBORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST OFTHAT WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BE FROM ALL THE STRATUS FROM EARLIER INTHE MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM WILL ALLOW HOT, DRY AIR TOADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD TO ROUGHLY A JOHNSON-MONTEZUMA-SLAPOUT, OKLINE BY 22Z. THE CONVERGENCE OF THESE TWO AIRMASS WILL BE THE FOCUSFOR THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THEMOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS WILL EXCEED 4000 J/KG WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACEPARCELS OF MID 80S OVER UPPER 60S DEWPOINT (DEGF).DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH0-6KM AGL BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KNOTS OR SO. VERY LARGE HAIL THE SIZEOF BASEBALLS OR PERHAPS LARGER UP TO SOFTBALLS WILL CERTAINLY BEPOSSIBLE IN THE 6 TO 9PM TIME FRAME ONCE SUPERCELLS BECOMEESTABLISHED. NOW TO THE TORNADO THREAT -- THERE IS REASON FOR GREATCONCERN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LONG-LIVED, SIGNIFICANT TORNADOESIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE3500-4500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-1KM AGL HELICITY RAMPING UP TO THE300-400 J/KG RANGE AS WELL (THANKS TO THE DYNAMIC LOW LEVEL JET THATDEVELOPS JUST AFTER SUNSET). THIS IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OFPOTENTIAL ENERGY BOTH FROM KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS TO SUPPORTEXTREMELY STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN SUPERCELLTHUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED AND STRONG TORNADOES THATTHRIVE DURING THE POST-SUNSET HOURS. THERE MAY ONLY BE ONE OR TWOSTORMS THAT THRIVE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BEGREAT FROM JUST ONE ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM. EVENTUALLY DURING THE03-06Z TIME FRAME...THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL BESUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE TORNADO THREAT...AND SUPERCELLSTORMS MAY DISSOLVE ALL TOGETHER BY 05 OR 06Z AS THE STORMS MOVETOWARD CENTRAL OR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Chadron storm now Tornado Warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I probably would if I wasn't stuck at work. I'll be watching the entire event from the confines of my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I literally can't remember the last date I saw EHI forecasts over 20 on the Plains, but it *might* have happened on the Greensburg day after dark. Speaking of which, if supercells continue fighting off the cap into the 02-05z timeframe tomorrow, there's some serious high-end potential (likely isolated, but high-impact nonetheless). May 10th, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Snippet from Umscheid in the afternoon DDC AFD:Really strong wording there... Talking as though there is indefinite High-Risk potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 18Z GFS seems to have come in line with the NAM in regards to the significant threat in Central/South KS tomorrow. Lets see what the 0Z suite does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Really strong wording there... Talking as though there is indefinite High-Risk potential? Too early to call, c'mon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 May 10th, 2010. Definitely on the RUC that morning, but not sure about the NAM from a day or two out. Regardless, the dates we're throwing around should be sufficient to convey the ceiling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Snippet from Umscheid in the afternoon DDC AFD: Really strong wording there... Talking as though there is indefinite High-Risk potential? Nothing is ever definite, come on already. Remember what Baro said to you yesterday? Let's not muck the thread up, there's been great discussion in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Too early to call, c'mon now. Nothing is ever definite, come on already. Remember what Baro said to you yesterday? Let's not muck the thread up, there's been great discussion in here. He's just curious, don't wanna scare the kid away now. I think it is at least reasonable to have to wonder about the potential for an upgrade to High Risk for tomorrow. If 00Z model agreement comes you gotta figure SPC is going to consider it, we were just talking about how crazy some of the parameters are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 He's just curious, don't wanna scare the kid away now. I think it is at least reasonable to have to wonder about the potential for an upgrade to High Risk for tomorrow. If 00Z model agreement comes you gotta figure SPC is going to consider it, we were just talking about how crazy some of the parameters are. I understand, but this message has been delivered over and over for the past several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 In regards to the High Risk discussion, keep in mind the risk is for the coverage of storms, not for how strong they may end up being. I think the more isolated nature of storms across Central/Southern Kansas may preclude a high risk upgrade, but I'm confident in saying the MDT will get dragged southeast quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Guys I am out of town and don't have my PC. Buddy of mine sent me a text and said the NAM has fallen apart for Sunday???? Can anyone confirm or tell me that isn't the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Not that the SPC categorical outlook really matters relative to the actual weather, but experience says it's doubtful we'll see HIGH tomorrow. The main reasons are the lack of high-end deep-layer shear, as well as the isolated to scattered coverage. Remember, days like 5/4/07 remained MDT even on D1, and with good reason (low coverage). Because the outlook considers both coverage and severity of impacts, one can't infer too much about the latter just based on the category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I highly doubt a high risk. Too much uncertainty with the cap and spatial-temporal coverage of storms. Any storm that manages to form with the shortwave swinging past will have a tough time surviving the onset of increasing CINH later in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Guys I am out of town and don't have my PC. Buddy of mine sent me a text and said the NAM has fallen apart for Sunday???? Can anyone confirm or tell me that isn't the case? It is blowing up a big MCS in KS and OK which is definitely skewing the parameters at least a bit, MO into IA still looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Guys I am out of town and don't have my PC. Buddy of mine sent me a text and said the NAM has fallen apart for Sunday???? Can anyone confirm or tell me that isn't the case? Looks that way for Eastern KS and south, here's a few pics of the most promising timeframe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Bummer...hopefully it is an outlier. We plan to chase OK sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Olney and Newcastle, TX storms starting to take on supercellular appearance on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Spotters reporting TOG in Jackson County, MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Any of you folks planning on heading up to Iowa assuming the models stay consistent for Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 553 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013 MNC063-172315- /O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130517T2315Z/ JACKSON MN- 553 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT... AT 549 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF LAKEFIELD...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 In regards to the High Risk discussion, keep in mind the risk is for the coverage of storms, not for how strong they may end up being. I think the more isolated nature of storms across Central/Southern Kansas may preclude a high risk upgrade, but I'm confident in saying the MDT will get dragged southeast quite a bit.That's what I was thinking... Not nearly enough storm coverage for a high risk, but seems to be potential for an isolated significant tornado tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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