Ed Lizard Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I giggled when I saw it but there was definitely rotation with it for a scan or two. I was busy working for a minute, but the waterspout I saw in the Gulf was from a not super-terribly impressive cumulus, might have qualified as congestus, and I've seen a funnel from a garden variety thundershower in South Louisiana, maybe it was more like a tropical funnel. I saw a spooky looking tropical funnel from out my window, looking close to Houston. It was decent sized, but only halfway to the ground. Never have seen a supercell tornado or even funnel cloud. Best I've ever done locally was rapidly rising scud into a storm base but w/o rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Loosely related, but I wanted to throw the link to the thread up here for anyone interested ... neat effects of model convection in the 12z NAM today: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40273-fun-visualization-of-effects-of-model-convection/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Actually, I'm wondering why anyone has doubts about Iowa for Sunday. With 00Z Td's in the 70's and the left front exit region of the 500mb speed max, what is the problem? Backing upper level winds, which would create problems in terms of storm mode (especially with a weaker cap in this area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Moisture return is impressive to say the least. SNL is AOA 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Superstorm, I'm posting your graphics over at Talkweather, if that's ok, these are great stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 166NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK305 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFCENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL800 PM CDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLESEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLETHE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH OFBROWNWOOD TEXAS TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLSTEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATEDWATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).&&DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING OVER PARTS OF TX ALONG THEDRYLINE TO THE EAST OF SJT AND EAST OF ABI. AIR MASS EAST OF THEDRYLINE IS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO 4000 J/KG.ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...VERY FAVORABLETHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT/STEEP LAPSE RATES INDICATES THREAT FOR AFEW STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDGUSTS.AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFTTO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORMMOTION VECTOR 24015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Backing winds above say 500mb is not a problem, and has actually been shown to be a feature in past sig events. Where you worry about consistent veering winds is in like the lowest 300mb or so. Backing mid-upper level winds are associated with cold advection and falling heights around the jet stream level This is a good point, I have just noticed that the storm mode can tend to go awry with this, but this is mainly east of the MS River into the Southern Great Lakes region and Dixie Alley, although I thought I remember 5/24/11 in KS having this issue (it didn't help having a closed circulation at 700 mb so close to the warm sector in that area, either). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 This is a good point, I have just noticed that the storm mode can tend to go awry with this, but this is mainly east of the MS River into the Southern Great Lakes region and Dixie Alley, although I thought I remember 5/24/11 in KS having this issue (it didn't help having a closed circulation at 700 mb so close to the warm sector in that area, either). I know I've seen it in a lot of events. I've read some different / mixed opinions. Regardless, most important is in the lowest half of the atmosphere anyway. By the way, pretty neat site I just stumbled on: http://www.tornadohead.com/storhodos.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Just back from a two day trip. Can someone guve me a quick rundown on this three day threat? Saw something about huge hail today, better check the VIL on the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 By the way, pretty neat site I just stumbled on: http://www.tornadohead.com/storhodos.htm Great stuff there, bookmarked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 18z NAM really puts the emphasis on Kansas for tomorrow. Really interested to see what the 00z runs do, especially since the hi-res models will be entering their "more accurate" ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I know I've seen it in a lot of events. I've read some different / mixed opinions. Regardless, most important is in the lowest half of the atmosphere anyway. By the way, pretty neat site I just stumbled on: http://www.tornadohead.com/storhodos.htm Hey, thanks! That's a cool reference to have!Bookmarking as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 18z NAM really puts the emphasis on Kansas for tomorrow. Really interested to see what the 00z runs do, especially since the hi-res models will be entering their "more accurate" ranges. Wow, no kidding. I just looked at a forecast sounding for the Hays, KS area on the 18Z NAM and it is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 The NAM seems to echo the idea of Iowa being the place to watch in terms of significant tornado activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 This year, there have been 4 tornadoes in Kansas, 15 tornadoes in Oklahoma, and 4 tornadoes in Nebraska, and zero in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Backing upper level winds, which would create problems in terms of storm mode (especially with a weaker cap in this area) I also wouldn't be concerned with the backed winds above 500mb (as disco'ed above), but yeah, totally agree about the cap. Good point. Could be a lot of rain in IA though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 The NAM seems to echo the idea of Iowa being the place to watch in terms of significant tornado activity. While the northern threat area is potent looking, I think the NAM solution is looking less impressive further south due to it blowing up an MCS across KS and OK on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Near Pratt, KS tomorrow evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Two 40K ft storms in SW Minnesota this afternoon - I bet the structure shots would be outstanding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Tonight's model runs will be so eagerly awaited by a zoo of chasers given how relatively spare svr wx has been this spring, emergency management personnel, and a multitude of armchair enthusiasts. Thanks for the hodo compilation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 For Pratt, KS ... at 03z, the NAM has a SWEAT index of 745.6 and a 0-3km EHI of 21.1 ..... these are insanely high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Near Pratt, KS tomorrow evening... The indices here are [quite literally] off the charts. If the NAM verifies and something goes up in southern KS, it won't be pretty. (Or it will be, depending on how you look at it, of course). SWEAT of ~750 and an EHI of 21.1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 The 18z 4km NAM is even more impressive, blowing up supers in areas with 7000 j/KG of SBCAPE. I'll post the 00z 4km NAM when it's out later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 The 18z 4km NAM is even more impressive, blowing up supers in areas with 7000 j/KG of SBCAPE. I'll post the 00z 4km NAM when it's out later tonight. That's just insanity, as is the sounding that Jake posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Just a tease for now... The 1km sim radar would be mouth watering for any chaser. (Image below is NOT 1km) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 That moisture content at the top of the column next to that dryline is certainly a powderkeg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Just a tease for now... I'm going to go ahead and guess that the updraft helicity signatures are maxed out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 so, big question given where all of this is going down. how long will the FSD radar be down? because it's a hell of a time for the radar to break before an event like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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