Ian Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 If that's what is going to meet your expectations, then you are going to be disappointed a lot.April 14 is a top 10 day all time. Even these days it's probably a once in 5+ yr event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 If that's what is going to meet your expectations, then you are going to be disappointed a lot.I don't have terribly high expectations for this weekend. Photogenic/ picturesque supercells are fine by me. An over/under of 5 tornadoes this weekend (Saturday) seems fair... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 April 14 is a top 10 day all time. Even these days it's probably a once in 5+ yr event?I'd say even longer than 5 years... Seeing that the setup that day was pretty much perfect for numerous tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I don't have terribly high expectations for this weekend. Photogenic/ picturesque supercells are fine by me. An over/under of 5 tornadoes this weekend (Saturday) seems fair... It's far too early to be putting out any numbers. Lets wait until we have some model agreement before we start guessing the number of tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I don't have terribly high expectations for this weekend. Photogenic/ picturesque supercells are fine by me. An over/under of 5 tornadoes this weekend (Saturday) seems fair... Honestly, you shouldn't have any expectations this far out, whether it be 100 tornadoes, or 5, and you've mentioned both. To do so isn't smart. We've seen setups go to crap how many times recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 It's far too early to be putting out any numbers. Lets wait until we have some model agreement before we start guessing the number of tornadoes.Model agreement? Already have that, why else would the SPC issue a DAY 6 30% risk area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Model agreement? Already have that, why else would the SPC issue a DAY 6 30% risk area? Yes, but you are getting substantially more specific than that, the D6 is not just for tornadoes, but damaging winds and hail as well. And no, there are still plenty of differences in the model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Model agreement? Already have that, why else would the SPC issue a DAY 6 30% risk area? Go back and read the text of that Day 6 risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Model agreement? Already have that, why else would the SPC issue a DAY 6 30% risk area? Ok, so because SPC put out a Day 6, let's just lock it in now, Day 6 outlooks have never busted. And models have always never wavered from 6 days out. Come on man. If you do actually chase events, you should really know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Model agreement? Already have that, why else would the SPC issue a DAY 6 30% risk area? There's a reason the outlined area is so large, lack of model agreement... and the discussion is clear that the tornado threat is uncertain at this time. Not quite sure why you're trying to be so difficult here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Honestly, you shouldn't have any expectations this far out, whether it be 100 tornadoes, or 5, and you've mentioned both. To do so isn't smart. We've seen setups go to crap how many times recently?The only reason mentioned "100 tornadoes" was referring to the 4/14/12 outbreak, and how nice it would be to see another outbreak like that, I didn't say we will get that on Saturday or Sunday, because we won't . And as for the 5 tornadoes, I guess I'll remember to not share my opinion on something that's 6 days out. Just trying to be optimistic, because we have had nothing acknowledgable this year in the way of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 SPC must secretly mean there's complete model agreement. ...DISCUSSION... FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S. FOR LATE THIS WEEK /FRI. THROUGH SUN. MAY 17-19/...AS A WRN U.S. TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 There's a reason the outlined area is so large, lack of model agreement... and the discussion is clear that the tornado threat is uncertain at this time. Not quite sure why you're trying to be so difficult here...Not necessarily, however it is some true... Just as an example, the reason that high risk area on 4/14/12 was so large wasn't because of model spreads, it was because the high-end threat area was that large. Somewhat similar situation here, the threat area is pretty spread out, they did mention "widespread severe weather" in the outlook as well. Sorry about being a little difficult, I'm not in a very good mood, and love arguing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 SPC must secretly mean there's complete model agreement. ...DISCUSSION... FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S. FOR LATE THIS WEEK /FRI. THROUGH SUN. MAY 17-19/...AS A WRN U.S. TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME. I didn't mean there was complete model agreement, but obviously enough to spark interest seeing this board has been talking about it nonstop for four days. FYI Gradually = slowly/ little bits at a time. Not a significant amount of disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Not necessarily, however it is some true... Just as an example, the reason that high risk area on 4/14/12 was so large wasn't because of model spreads, it was because the high-end threat area was that large. Somewhat similar situation here, the threat area is pretty spread out, they did mention "widespread severe weather" in the outlook as well. Sorry about being a little difficult, I'm not in a very good mood, and love arguing... Thank you for educating me on the 4/14 outbreak... I had no clue . I didn't follow every single little bit of that event or anything. Yes there is a large threat area for this coming event but the size very much has to do with uncertainty and timing between models. Also uncertainty about the areas that will be capped too much. Anyways this is ridiculous, how about lets keep this on topic and actually talk about the threat instead of arguing about something just to argue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 I agree, there seems to be a lot of question's yet to be answered for this weekends system, as a matter of fact I think the new day 5 outlook (if there is one at all), will highlight the Upper Mississippi Valley according to the ECMWF, having said that, based on the 05/13/12z run of model suites the outlook that the SPC will put out for days 4-8 will show Predictability to Low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Hmmm... I actually thought the 12z data looked like one of the best runs we've seen yet for Saturday... Don't like the 18z but its been the outlier consistency wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Thank you for educating me on the 4/14 outbreak... I had no clue . I didn't follow every single little bit of that event or anything. Yes there is a large threat area for this coming event but the size very much has to do with uncertainty and timing between models. Also uncertainty about the areas that will be capped too much. Anyways this is ridiculous, how about lets keep this on topic and actually talk about the threat instead of arguing about something just to argue. Just had to spark an argument for fun, and that's all I have to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Hmmm... I actually thought the 12z data looked like one of the best runs we've seen yet for Saturday... Don't like the 18z but its been the outlier consistency wise.Noticed that... Every other run for at least about five runs generally looked the same, but then the 18Z run changed quite a bit at least for instability, wasn't showing as much widespread crazy CAPE Values. But a plus is that it strengthened the 500mb jet a bit for 7pm on Saturday in KS and OK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Hmmm... I actually thought the 12z data looked like one of the best runs we've seen yet for Saturday... Don't like the 18z but its been the outlier consistency wise. Where for Saturday? Your area or further south? I assume you talking about somewhere near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 The CIPS #2 analog for 12z Friday morning is 5/29/04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Where for Saturday? Your area or further south? I assume you talking about somewhere near you. No, for KS... Nice wind fields and enough holes in the cap with larger scale forcing entering the area. Yes for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 The CIPS #2 analog for 12z Friday morning is 5/29/04. That date has already been poking around in my head the past day or two, moreso in regards to Saturday. Unfortunately, the lack of a strong jet aloft probably limits the upcoming setups to a league or two lower, but I generally love low-amplitude troughs when things work out correctly. Man, this is my eighth year chasing and I'm still waiting for a big day roughly in the style of 5/29/04. Hasn't really been anything quite comparable since, in terms of outbreaks with excellent directional shear and lax storm motions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 No, for KS... Nice wind fields and enough holes in the cap with larger scale forcing entering the area. Yes for Saturday. I agree that we could be under the gun on Saturday, the only question I have is crapvection during the late morning, early afternoon on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Not bad for 5-6 days out, no mention of tornadoes yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 That date has already been poking around in my head the past day or two, moreso in regards to Saturday. Unfortunately, the lack of a strong jet aloft probably limits the upcoming setups to a league or two lower, but I generally love low-amplitude troughs when things work out correctly. Man, this is my eighth year chasing and I'm still waiting for a big day roughly in the style of 5/29/04. Hasn't really been anything quite comparable since, in terms of outbreaks with excellent directional shear and lax storm motions. Yeah I've been looking at that setup for the past 15 mins now. That was a big big day and a very wide are north-south. Biggest day I've been out for was 4/14 last year probably. We'll see what happens but could be a nice 4-5 day stretch from Wed-Sun depending on the speed of this thing. 12z runs like the northern TX PH for a sup or two on Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 My thoughts for the possible event this weekend. Instability and shear values seem to support a significant threat of severe weather. Beyond that, I don't care since there is no point from a chasing-perspective. In terms of a chase forecast, I'll make it Friday evening or so. Those debating specific numbers of tornadoes possible this weekend and getting their balls in a twist should probably go take midol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 The CIPS #2 analog for 12z Friday morning is 5/29/04. A couple of progs have also raised in my mind the day a week earlier (5/22/04), which was the Hallam day. That day saw a well timed s/w pass through the warm sector at just the right time, the larger scale trough was further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 An outbreak very similar to 05/29/2004, and which also had a pattern similar to the upcoming one, is the outbreak of 05/29-05/30/1909. As on 05/29/2004, numerous tornadoes, many F3+, occurred across a wide swath of the Plains from ND to TX, including the deadly Zephyr, TX, F4 (34 deaths) after midnight on 05/30. Another F4 hit near Micawber, OK, on 05/29. There were also two probable F4s near Langdon, ND, and Wetumka, OK, on 05/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 GFS really slowing the s/w ejection for Saturday. Not liking the look of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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