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True. I'm sure the GFS is overdoing moisture as always, but I also don't think we'll need 72+ to go gangbusters. Sure, CAPE and LCLs might verify somewhat lower and higher, respectively, than some of the current weather porn. But if the GFS shear profiles verify and storms initiate across OK and S KS, it won't matter much. Whether the GFS is even close on the synoptic evolution is another story altogether, unfortunately.

FWIW, the 12z ECMWF took a small but notable shift west/slower with the upper trof. At the surface it even shows some signs of late backing of the low level flow in the vicinity of the dryline, albeit the dryline/warm sector is not nearly as broad as the GFS. ECMWF doesn't initiate much along it, but one would have to assume capping would not be a problem given the positioning of the upper low....the only slight negative would be synoptic scale forcing being displaced from the potential area of CI.

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This was the first violent tornado in TX since the 1999 Loyal Valley F4, and according to David, the first one in FWD's CWA since the Lancaster F4 in 1994.

Not to open a can of worms, but Westminster 2006 was almost surely in the "violent" category (though not officially).

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I know it's already been covered, but just wanted to add to the EF4/5 discussion. If you look at the "swept clean" photos, at least the ones I've seen, they fail the EF5 test. Most of the anchoring appears to have been straight nails, and the few anchor bolts that were present were very widely spaced. That's solid construction and definitely warrants an EF4, if not high-end EF4, but it isn't the "superior construction" needed for EF5. Also, although those homes were swept clean, most of the debris remained in piles not far from the house. And as others have said, there has yet to be any sign of other EF5 hallmarks such as ground/pavement scouring, extreme tree damage (not EF5 by itself, but can lend credence to such a rating) or debarked/uprooted low-lying shrubs. It's possible they'll find such evidence, but IMO not likely.

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Lots of graduation ceremonies this weekend. I noticed Wichita mentioned it in their AFD this afternoon, and I know Joplin's is Sunday, so hopefully the storms will hold off or remain in rural areas.

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Lots of graduation ceremonies this weekend. I noticed Wichita mentioned it in their AFD this afternoon, and I know Joplin's is Sunday, so hopefully the storms will hold off or remain in rural areas.

 

Didn't the Joplin tornado hit during graduation weekend for a lot of high schools?

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
844 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEYS FOR 05/15/2013 TORNADO EVENT...

...16 TORNADOES HAVE NOW BEEN CONFIRMED. ALL SURVEY CREWS HAVE
RETURNED FOR THE DAY AND SOME OF THEIR INFORMATION HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN THIS UPDATE...

SO FAR 16 TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED. THE FIRST TORNADO
OCCURRED IN MONTAGUE COUNTY AT 538 PM CDT. THE LAST REPORTED
TORNADO WAS AROUND 1210 AM IN ENNIS.

THIS INFORMATION IS CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY. SURVEY TEAMS WERE
SENT TO JOHNSON COUNTY...HOOD COUNTY...PARKER COUNTY...ELLIS
COUNTY AND MONTAGUE COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO COLLECT DATA...TALK WITH EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND
RESPONDERS...AND EYE WITNESSES...REVIEW RADAR DATA...PICTURES AND
VIDEOS. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT IS SUBJECT TO AND
LIKELY WILL CHANGE.

AN ADDITIONAL SURVEY TEAM WILL BE SENT TO SURVEY DAMAGE NORTHWEST
OF CRESSON IN SOUTHERN PARKER COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

.TORNADO #1 - BELCHERVILLE/MONTAGUE COUNTY...

THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED ONE MILE WEST OF BELCHERVILLE BY STORM
SPOTTERS. NO ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT
THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO
LATER.


.TORNADO #2 - LAKE AMON G. CARTER/MONTAGUE COUNTY...

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    100 MPH
INJURIES:               1

SURVEY CREWS FOUND FIVE HOMES DAMAGED BY THIS TORNADO SOUTH OF LAKE
AMON G. CARTER. FOUR OF THE HOMES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED AND ONE
HOME WAS DESTROYED. IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE WAS
REPORTED. ONE MINOR INJURY WAS REPORTED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL
BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.


.TORNADO #3 - ALVORD/WISE COUNTY...

THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND STORM SPOTTERS. NO
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.


.TORNADO #4 - MILLSAP/PARKER COUNTY...

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    100 MPH

SURVEY CREWS FOUND FIVE HOMES SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED BY THIS TORNADO.
IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.


.TORNADO #5 - GRANBURY/HOOD COUNTY...

RATING:                 EF-4
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  2.75 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   880 YARDS/0.5 MILES
FATALITIES:             6
INJURIES:               DOZENS

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH THIS TORNADO INCLUDING HOMES WIPED
CLEAR OFF THE FOUNDATION. TWO HOMES SUFFERED EF-4 MAGNITUDE DAMAGE
AND SEVERAL MORE SUFFERED EF-3 MAGNITUDE DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO WILL BE PROVIDED LATER.


.TORNADO #6 - PECAN PLANTATION/HOOD COUNTY...

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    90-100 MPH

SURVEY CREWS FOUND AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGE PATH SEPARATE FROM TORNADO
#5 THAT AFFECTED GRANBURY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO
WILL BE PROVIDED LATER.


.TORNADO #7 - WEST OF ANNETTA SOUTH/PARKER COUNTY...

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ALONG TIN TOP ROAD BY EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS. A SURVEY CREW WILL BE SENT TO THE DAMAGED AREA ON
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO WILL BE PROVIDED
LATER.


.TORNADO #8 - CLEBURNE/JOHNSON COUNTY...

RATING:                 EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    140 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  8.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   1060 YARDS/0.6 MILES

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH THIS STRONG TORNADO. DOZENS OF
HOMES WERE DAMAGED AND AT LEAST 3 OR 4 HOMES SUFFERED EF-3
MAGNITUDE DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS
TORNADO LATER.


.TORNADO #9 - 6 ESE CLEBURNE/JOHNSON COUNTY...

RATING:                 EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    85 MPH

SURVEY CREWS FOUND AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGE PATH SEPARATE FROM TORNADO
#8. DAMAGE WITH THIS TORNADO WAS MOSTLY TO TREES BUT 5
MANUFACTURED HOMES ALSO SUFFERED ROOF DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.


.TORNADO #10 - MILLS COUNTY...

THIS BRIEF TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTERS. NO ADDITIONAL
DETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.


.TORNADOES #11 AND #12- NORTH OF EVANT/HAMILTON COUNTY...

VIDEO FOOTAGE SHOWED 2 BRIEF TORNADOES OCCURRED SIMULTANEOUSLY
APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES NORTH OF EVANT. NO ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON
THESE TORNADOES ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
WILL BE PROVIDED LATER.


.TORNADO #13 - ENNIS/ELLIS COUNTY...

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUE/:   APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED IN ENNIS WITH THIS TORNADO. THE TORNADO
BEGAN NEAR CLAY STREET AND ENNIS AVENUE. THE TORNADO TRAVELED EAST
FROM THERE AND CROSSED INTERSTATE 45 SOUTH OF ENNIS AVENUE.
ACCORDING TO PRELIMINARY INFORMATION FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS...17
HOMES WERE DAMAGED WITH 4 HOMES LEFT INHABITABLE. A TOTAL OF 55
COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES WERE DAMAGED WITH 20 OF THOSE PROPERTIES
SUFFERING SEVERE DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED
ON THIS TORNADO LATER.


.TORNADO #14 - SE OF MINERAL WELLS/PALO PINTO COUNTY...

RATING:                 EF-0

START DATE:             05/15/2013
START TIME:             6:41 PM CDT
START LOCATION:         APPROXIMATELY 3.5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS

END DATE:               05/15/2013
END TIME:               6:42 PM CDT
END LOCATION:           APPROXIMATELY 3.5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS

OFF DUTY NWS METEOROLOGISTS PHOTOGRAPHED A TORNADO APPROXIMATELY
3.5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS OR 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MILLSAP. THIS TORNADO IS SEPARATE FROM THE MILLSAP TORNADO. SO FAR
NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM THIS BRIEF TORNADO.


.TORNADO #15 - E OF MILLSAP/PARKER COUNTY...

RATING:                 EF-0

START DATE:             05/15/2013
START TIME:             7:22 PM CDT
START LOCATION:         APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES EAST OF MILLSAP

END DATE:               05/15/2013
END TIME:               7:25 PM CDT
END LOCATION:           APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES EAST OF MILLSAP

OFF DUTY NWS METEOROLOGISTS PHOTOGRAPHED A TORNADO APPROXIMATELY
3 MILES EAST OF MILLSAP. THIS TORNADO IS SEPARATE FROM THE MILLSAP
TORNADO. SO FAR NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM THIS TORNADO.


.TORNADO #16 - NOCONA LAKE/MONTAGUE COUNTY...

THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR NOCONA LAKE BY STORM SPOTTERS.
PICTURES OF THIS TORNADO WERE ALSO OBTAINED. SOME DAMAGE HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITH THIS TORNADO BUT NO ADDITIONAL DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO WILL BE
PROVIDED LATER.


EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

$$

JLDUNN
 

 

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Didn't the Joplin tornado hit during graduation weekend for a lot of high schools?

 

Probably, May 22nd is the end of the school year. It hit about an hour or so after Joplin's graduation. A lot of people gathered in one place not really paying attention to the weather. 

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Probably, May 22nd is the end of the school year. It hit about an hour or so after Joplin's graduation. A lot of people gathered in one place not really paying attention to the weather. 

ICT brought that up at the end of their AFD saying about how potentially dangerous this could be with numerous outdoor activities taking place on Sunday, especially graduation parties. I would hope that the local news advises people to pay special attention to the weather conditions on Sunday...

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The NAM continues to look abysmal for Sunday. Even surface winds veer out along the DL, nevermind H85. The primary vort max swings through around 18z, pushing off into IA by late afternoon, where shear profiles are totally whacked. Without rapid secondary cyclogenesis in NW OK/SC KS, I think the day may well disappoint many chasers, given the rather extreme level of hype that's been drummed up already. At this point, I'm just not buying the GFS solution, given its very poor performance so far this season. Saturday's conditional potential in NW KS into NE CO is starting to look more and more tempting...

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The NAM continues to look abysmal for Sunday. Even surface winds veer out along the DL, nevermind H85. The primary vort max swings through around 18z, pushing off into IA by late afternoon, where shear profiles are totally whacked. Without rapid secondary cyclogenesis in NW OK/SC KS, I think the day may well disappoint many chasers, given the rather extreme level of hype that's been drummed up already. At this point, I'm just not buying the GFS solution, given its very poor performance so far this season. Saturday's conditional potential in NW KS into NE CO is starting to look more and more tempting...

 

Using the NAM at 72 hours out is a bit iffy man, I mean it has had poor performance at that range for years...

 

Plus I wouldn't chase a conditional setup with the setup the next day having a much higher ceiling, because you'll be kicking yourself if the conditional setup busts and you are out of place for the better one that doesn't bust.

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Seriously, I don't want to see posts referencing tornado events that resulted in fatalities and demolished towns as "appetizers". Keep the discussion meteorological, if you have nothing to add, then read more and post less.

Bad wording.... I was talking for severe weather, never mind the fact that they caused damage. It was meteorological speaking... severe weather?

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The NAM continues to look abysmal for Sunday. Even surface winds veer out along the DL, nevermind H85. The primary vort max swings through around 18z, pushing off into IA by late afternoon, where shear profiles are totally whacked. Without rapid secondary cyclogenesis in NW OK/SC KS, I think the day may well disappoint many chasers, given the rather extreme level of hype that's been drummed up already. At this point, I'm just not buying the GFS solution, given its very poor performance so far this season. Saturday's conditional potential in NW KS into NE CO is starting to look more and more tempting...

This is an example of why I have a tough time getting excited so far in advance.  But yeah you raise a good point the GFS performance this year, at least in the plains has been pretty poor.  HOWEVER, this year has not been normal, this current setup is a more typical setup, which the GFS seems to nail a few days out a bit better than the NAM.  When we get within 48hrs we'll see what things look like...ie late tomorrow and saturday morning.  I just have trouble using the NAM against numerous other models at day 3/4...day 1/2 is different.

 

Not sure I'd throw in the towel yet.  I'm interested to see if SPC goes day3 slight or day3 MDT.  Given the year slight wouldn't surprise me...despite this being the best setup of the year thus far.

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Using the NAM at 72 hours out is a bit iffy man, I mean it has had poor performance at that range for years...

 

Plus I wouldn't chase a conditional setup with the setup the next day having a much higher ceiling, because you'll be kicking yourself if the conditional setup busts and you are out of place for the better one that doesn't bust.

 

I feel like we already went through this song and dance several times back in April. Everyone mocks the NAM outside its supposed 24-36 hour range, only for it to mop the floor with the GFS even at 60-72. The only thing I'll concede is that this setup doesn't involve cold air behind a sagging boundary, which is where the GFS really falls apart. Regardless, a ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET blend would appear to be closer to the NAM than GFS right now, anyway. If the NAM stood alone I'd be less concerned.

 

As for Sat vs. Sun, I think the distance between the two targets is manageable, should we get initiation near the sfc low in NE CO/NW KS. Imagine many will be out for both.

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I feel like we already went through this song and dance several times back in April. Everyone mocks the NAM outside its supposed 24-36 hour range, only for it to mop the floor with the GFS even at 60-72. The only thing I'll concede is that this setup doesn't involve cold air behind a sagging boundary, which is where the GFS really falls apart. Regardless, a ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET blend would appear to be closer to the NAM than GFS right now, anyway. If the NAM stood alone I'd be less concerned.

 

These are not comparable setups other than the location, that is it. There is no reason to be comparing the 2.

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One of my biggest concerns is just how complicated reaching potential is. But, at this range--and knowing it can do well--I wouldn't kick the can because of the NAM. I'll admit to not having followed prior setups nearly as closely, though the more complex something gets the less I'm willing to totally buy the NAM in evolution the deeper you get into range. At the same time, probably shouldn't run to the top end this far out.

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This is an example of why I have a tough time getting excited so far in advance.  But yeah you raise a good point the GFS performance this year, at least in the plains has been pretty poor.  HOWEVER, this year has not been normal, this current setup is a more typical setup, which the GFS seems to nail a few days out a bit better than the NAM.  When we get within 48hrs we'll see what things look like...ie late tomorrow and saturday morning.  I just have trouble using the NAM against numerous other models at day 3/4...day 1/2 is different.

 

Not sure I'd throw in the towel yet.  I'm interested to see if SPC goes day3 slight or day3 MDT.  Given the year slight wouldn't surprise me...despite this being the best setup of the year thus far.

 

Agreed with bold. NAM has some key advantages in certain situations (we saw that with the last "busted" day 3 Mod), but situations like this the NAM has far less utility (wave propagation/ejections/phasing/etc., especially when the feature is still partly off coast).  What will likely happen is something down the middle of the disparate solutions. It is fascinating to see how the various models eject and deepen the shortwave trough as it ejects the plains....with the GFS far more aggressive deepening that secondary lee low behind the leading shortwave tracking into the N Plains. I am, however, skeptical of the GFS verbatim.

 

I would be honestly surprised if SPC went Day 3 Mod again...with quite a bit of uncertainty clouding the scenario once again. 

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Reading the last 5-6 posts is awesome, btw. Love seeing the biases of other mets/non-mets in their interpretations, they different ways we all look at weather, etc. Great stuff (and yes, I am serious).

Brett's a storm snob, but I'd still rather have him be amped up.

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I would be honestly surprised if SPC went Day 3 Mod again...with quite a bit of uncertainty clouding the scenario once again. 

I agree, I would be surprised if we see a day3 Mod.  Just don't see it happening but I could be surprised.  

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The NAM continues to look abysmal for Sunday. Even surface winds veer out along the DL, nevermind H85. The primary vort max swings through around 18z, pushing off into IA by late afternoon, where shear profiles are totally whacked. Without rapid secondary cyclogenesis in NW OK/SC KS, I think the day may well disappoint many chasers, given the rather extreme level of hype that's been drummed up already. At this point, I'm just not buying the GFS solution, given its very poor performance so far this season. Saturday's conditional potential in NW KS into NE CO is starting to look more and more tempting...

that is one model though and it is just now coming into range of the best potential outbreak days. not saying i am hugging any one model b/c i am not at this time but it is far too early to be making calls. models are going to be their little tweaks all the way up to the event. have to wait for a consensus. model agreement still is up in the air. the trough is just now coming onshore tonight so upper air network should get a good sampling. esp tomorrow

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I was referencing you as well :) And myself. 

 

It's almost always wise to be pessimistic. :P

 

Though I did text Katie yesterday that one day could high risk. Weeniecast. I'm just happy there will be storms.. and will try to forget our last two straight drives ended up in busts. 

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