andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Just to add on the Granbury tornado, I actually can't remember the last time I saw an F/EF4+ tornado in Texas, it's certainly been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Now that I've seen the new 12z ECMWF, it is clustered within the consensus speed (at least the operational), so we must account for the GFS being a little bit slow. This could affect how Saturday plays out, which ultimately affects where differentials/gradients may reside from overnight/morning convection. I think your area is sitting pretty at the moment, along with SW IA / W MO / SE NE. The slightly quicker timing will also help with your hodos up that way on Sunday. The GFS's slower timing would slightly tamper with them, delaying improvement past peak heating. The faster speed and slight veered low-level winds could make the OKC area not the best location. I'm also not comfortable forecasting last-minute improvement in low-level fields as the next wave moves in from the West and pressures lower. In other words, how will convection down this way manifest/behave as these conditions change? I'm just trying to answer "best" ...clearly all areas have tornadic potential. Definitely agree with this. My concern with the overall potential under the faster solution is with the trough bumping up against downstream ridging, giving very meridional flow over areas like NE KS into IA. In the event that OK and S KS stay capped (most likely due to veered low levels), I wouldn't be surprised to see the day as a whole underwhelm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Damage reported from a possible tornado west of Shreveport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Damage reported from a possible tornado west of Shreveport. 75 DBZ hail spike on NWS radar loop with that cell as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Tor watch issued for northern LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Also, FWIW, the CIPS analogs for the 00z GFS (for Sunday) was a variable smorgasbord of tornado events (I'm sure there's others that I'm not recognizing as well). http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&model=GFS212&fhr=F096&flg= 1. 00z May 23rd, 2004 3. 00z May 30th, 2004 5. 00z June 14th, 2001 6. 00z May 23rd, 1981 9. 00z June 16th, 1992 10. 00z June 6th, 2008 11. 00z June 8th, 1984 13. 00z May 16th, 1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 You guys are awesome, thanks. Another question if you don't mind - how accurate do the Supercell Composites tend to be on the GFS? Haven't ever really seen them mentioned when I see you guys talking about the models. In general, I look at the supercell composite plots for fun, if at all, at this range. I don't really take note of them until close-range and/or I have reason to believe the GFS is accurate with its MUCAPE/shear profiles. Basically they are arbitrary and consequential. First, we have to nail the synoptic setup; then, we can determine if the GFS has reasonable numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Another very nice video showing how large the Cleburne wedge tornado was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 To echo what some others have indicated, Sunday has pretty substantial potential. While I don't expect anything of the magnitude of 5/24/11 or 4/14/12, things do look promising for a decent outbreak. If I had to outline the highest tornado risk areas right now, it'd probably be east-central KS and perhaps northern OK. I don't like areas farther north due to the backed and weaker upper level flow, and further south due to stronger capping and more isolated storm coverage. Basically about from Salina/Topeka south to Enid-Ponca City, although obviously this is subject to change in the coming days.I live near emporia/ in east-central Kansas, I'd be stoked, wouldn't have to drive very far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Another very nice video showing how large the Cleburne wedge tornado was. Wow, that lightning was incredible; perfect for filming a night tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX418 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 05/15/2013 TORNADO EVENT...THIS INFORMATION IS CONSIDERED VERY PRELIMINARY. SURVEYTEAMS ARE STILL OUT SURVEYING THE TORNADO DAMAGE. SURVEY TEAMSWERE SENT TO JOHNSON COUNTY...HOOD COUNTY...PARKER COUNTY...ANDMONTAGUE COUNTY. ONE TEAM IS HOPING TO SURVEY THE ENNIS AREA INELLIS COUNTY BUT THIS MAY OCCUR ON A LATER DATE. OVER THE NEXTFEW DAYS WE WILL CONTINUE TO COLLECT DATA...TALK WITH EMERGENCYOFFICIALS AND RESPONDERS...AND EYE WITNESSES...REVIEW RADARDATA...PICTURES AND VIDEOS. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THISREPORT IS SUBJECT TO AND LIKELY WILL CHANGE.SO FAR 12 TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED. THE FIRST TORNADOOCCURRED IN MONTAGUE COUNTY AROUND 538 PM CDT. THE LAST REPORTEDTORNADO WAS AROUND 945 PM SOUTHEAST OF CLEBURNE.THE TORNADOES REPORTED BELOW ARE IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER..TORNADO #1 - NORTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY...THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTERS. NO ADDITIONALDETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALINFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER..TORNADO #2 - LAKE AMON G. CARTER/MONTAGUE COUNTY...RATING: EF-1ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 MPHADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO AFTERSURVEY CREWS RETURN..TORNADO #3 - ALVORD/WISE COUNTY...THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND STORM SPOTTERS. NOADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER..TORNADO #4 - MILLSAP/PARKER COUNTY...RATING: EF-1ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 MPHADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO AFTERSURVEY CREWS RETURN..TORNADO #5 - GRANBURY/HOOD COUNTY...RATING: EF-4FATALITIES: 6INJURIES: DOZENSSIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH THIS TORNADO INCLUDING HOMES WIPEDCLEAR OFF THE FOUNDATION. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDEDON THIS TORNADO AFTER SURVEY CREWS RETURN..TORNADO #6 - PECAN PLANTATION/HOOD COUNTY...RATING: EF-1ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPHSURVEY CREWS FOUND AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGE PATH SEPARATE FROM TORNADO#5 THAT AFFECTED GRANBURY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDEDON THIS TORNADO AFTER SURVEY CREWS RETURN..TORNADO #7 - CRESSON/HOOD COUNTY...THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTERS. NO ADDITIONALDETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALINFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER..TORNADO #8 - CLEBURNE/JOHNSON COUNTY...RATING: EF-3ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 140 MPHPATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 8.5 MILESPATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1060 YARDSSIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH THIS TORNADO. ADDITIONALINFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO AFTER SURVEY CREWSRETURN..TORNADO #9 - 6 ESE CLEBURNE/JOHNSON COUNTY...RATING: EF-0ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85 MPHSURVEY CREWS FOUND AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGE PATH SEPARATE FROM TORNADO#8 THAT AFFECTED THE CITY OF CLEBURNE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILLBE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO AFTER SURVEY CREWS RETURN..TORNADO #10 - MILLS COUNTY...THIS BRIEF TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTERS. NO ADDITIONALDETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALINFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER..TORNADO #11 - WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY...THIS BRIEF TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTERS. NO ADDITIONALDETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALINFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER..TORNADO #12 - WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY...THIS BRIEF TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTERS. NO ADDITIONALDETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALINFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THEFOLLOWING CATEGORIES.EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPHEF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPHEF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPHEF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPHEF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPHEF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPHNOTE:THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION INNWS STORM DATA.$$JLDUNN/GPATRICK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Wow, that lightning was incredible; perfect for filming a night tornado. Can you all let me know if I'm seeing this video right? I paused it - and I'm wondering if the blue I've outlined is the 'mile wide' condensation funnel. Or, did people think the wall cloud (outlined in red) was part of the condensation funnel? Which would be hard to tell, but I think I've accurately differentiated between the wall cloud (red) and condensation funnel (blue). I'm saying this because someone posted 'mothership-like' structure shots earlier that, given a skewed view of the horizon, could appear that the entire structure was a mile or two wide (and possibly was mistaken for the tornado). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 The 18z GFS makes sunday in southern KS/OK look big time. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 The 18z GFS makes sunday in southern KS/OK look big time. Wow. You're not kidding...with a reload for Monday. There is clearly a string of pearls along the dryline (within a very potent environment) on Sunday, and then again on Monday with even stronger flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 The 18z GFS makes sunday in southern KS/OK look big time. Wow. TWC is calling for the biggest threat to be in central/northern OK as well, we'll see what happens. I would definitely prefer for it to be be a bit south of me. No garage + hail = no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 It doesn't get more textbook than this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 It doesn't get more textbook than this.. gfsFLT_con_scp_078.gif 0-3 km EHIs of 6-10+ in that corridor with some seriously low LCLs (also has similar instability/shear on Monday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Can you all let me know if I'm seeing this video right? I paused it - and I'm wondering if the blue I've outlined is the 'mile wide' condensation funnel. Or, did people think the wall cloud (outlined in red) was part of the condensation funnel? Which would be hard to tell, but I think I've accurately differentiated between the wall cloud (red) and condensation funnel (blue). I'm saying this because someone posted 'mothership-like' structure shots earlier that, given a skewed view of the horizon, could appear that the entire structure was a mile or two wide (and possibly was mistaken for the tornado). You're dead on, what you've outlined in red would be Hallam, NE status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 0-3 km EHIs of 6-10+ in that corridor with some seriously low LCLs (also has similar instability/shear on Monday). The crossovers are pretty much perfect with the WSW flow aloft and the backed winds at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 OKC sounding...(considering saving this for posterity's sake). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 0-3 km EHIs of 6-10+ in that corridor with some seriously low LCLs (also has similar instability/shear on Monday). It'll be interesting to see how successful dew point forecasts are tomorrow. GFS is projecting widespread low 70's across much of OK Sunday evening and even into mid 70's on Monday. Can't say I don't think it might be a little overdone, influencing LCLs and instability etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 It'll be interesting to see how successful dew point forecasts are tomorrow. GFS is projecting widespread low 70's across much of OK Sunday evening and even into mid 70's on Monday. Can't say I don't think it might be a little overdone, influencing LCLs and instability etc. I will say that the large amounts of rain last night in North TX should help the moisture situation a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 You're dead on, what you've outlined in red would be Hallam, NE status. I think I saw the Hallam date listed as a prime analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 I think I saw the Hallam date listed as a prime analog. 5/29/04 has been popping on the analogs for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 5/29/04 has been popping on the analogs for days now. Hope you continue to have a great chase. Good luck to the COD crew. Boy, your timing for this weekend is excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Hope you continue to have a great chase. Good luck to the COD crew. Boy, your timing for this weekend is excellent. Thanks man, so glad we pushed the trip back one day as it looks like it might pay off big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 I will say that the large amounts of rain last night in North TX should help the moisture situation a bit. True. I'm sure the GFS is overdoing moisture as always, but I also don't think we'll need 72+ to go gangbusters. Sure, CAPE and LCLs might verify somewhat lower and higher, respectively, than some of the current weather porn. But if the GFS shear profiles verify and storms initiate across OK and S KS, it won't matter much. Whether the GFS is even close on the synoptic evolution is another story altogether, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 True. I'm sure the GFS is overdoing moisture as always, but I also don't think we'll need 72+ to go gangbusters. Sure, CAPE and LCLs might verify somewhat lower and higher, respectively, than some of the current weather porn. But if the GFS shear profiles verify and storms initiate across OK and S KS, it won't matter much. Whether the GFS is even close on the synoptic evolution is another story altogether, unfortunately. FWIW (not much), the 18z NAM was awfully close to the GFS aloft (H5, etc), although in the lower levels it was much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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