SluggerWx Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 There's a couplet now north of Rockwall, TX...would be completely wrapped in rain - but there's rotation at .5 degree tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Not to get ahead of myself, but the 00z GFS looks awfully favorable in KS on Sunday, perhaps OK as well although capping may be a bit more of an issue down there. The wind fields in KS now look just as favorable as further south with a even a bit more instability thanks to the mid level cold pocket overlapping more of the warm sector. Not to mention the fact that Monday continues to hold potential further east and for perhaps another round in the Plains with the second jet streak. Pretty nice run overall so far. Never really clears the moisture, partly because the 500 low closes off pretty far west and then washes out fairly quick. That next trough starts crashing in pretty hard initially... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 First video is up. Caught this with the COD crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Strong rotation east of Clifton, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 First video is up. Caught this with the COD crew. Great start guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Congrats to everyone for the great catches today near and S of I-20. I was lazy and looked ahead to the weekend too much, trying to get some work done before leaving here around 4pm. Think I got a rain-wrapped tornado near Alvord (Wise Co.) but it pales to the southern activity, of course. Unfortunate to hear of the severe impacts of the Hood Co. storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 I don't know if anyone posted this...as I was at work at San Angelo...handling our weather...and relaying reports to Fort Worth...but the Hood county damage...you can listen live at the link below. If already posted sorry. http://www.broadcastify.com/listen/ctid/2633/web Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Large wedge (crazy storm structure) near Rio Vista earlier. Mothership supercell I believe near Decordova Ranch (although I believe the Hamilton cell further south was also reported looking like this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Getting new reports of 6 fatalities at least with the Granbury tornado, that would make the deadliest TX tornado in quite awhile. http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/Tornadoes-Reported-in-Granbury-Millsap-207643171.html?_osource=SocialFlowFB_DFWBrand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 GFS looks simply amazing for much of central OK/KS on Sunday, but seems to be the outlier in terms of a slower and more amplified solution. None of the foreign models look as impressive, but for the most part, a notable tornadic supercell threat is still present somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 GFS looks simply amazing for much of central OK/KS on Sunday, but seems to be the outlier in terms of a slower and more amplified solution. None of the foreign models look as impressive, but for the most part, a notable tornadic supercell threat is still present somewhere. Yeah the Euro is a bit quicker but still doesn't look benign at all with a solid mid-level speed max punching right over the warm sector on Sunday (with the second jet streak coming in for Monday/Tuesday), the LLJ is a bit more veered (on Sunday), but it still looks manageable, tbh the main difference at this time appears to be more speed and less amplitude, the GFS and Euro are basically lock step with 500 mb amplitude at 72 hrs (if you look at the ejection across the Four Corners) except the Euro is a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Oh, and a bit off-topic, but what is with this nonsense on TWC's website in the "Top Stories" department when there has been a deadly tornado this evening and there is nothing on the front page that indicates this at all. "Worst Food at Restaurants" "Stinky Corpse Flower Blooms Again" "Bye Bye Bunnies" "Wind Farms Get Pass On Eagle Deaths" http://www.weather.com/ /rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 By the way, D3 is out, it is a 30% sig-hatched primarily for Central SD while the hatched area extends southward into North-Central NE. Storm coverage (understandably) in question further south. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS REGINO SWD INTO PARTS OF KS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSION OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE U.S. IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ADVANCES EWD AND BEGINS AFFECTING THE PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A TROUGH IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD WITH TIME INTO THE PLAINS...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... AS THE SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO FALLING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ATTEMPT TO ERODE A VERY STOUT CAPPING INVERSION. AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPMENT ATOP THE CAP...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INITIAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HIGH PLAINS VICINITY...THOUGH WEAKER CAPE IN THIS PART OF THE AREA SUGGESTS ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE TROUGHING SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS WITH TIME AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PERSISTS...EXPECT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING -- PARTICULARLY FROM SRN ND SWD ACROSS SD. WHILE SSWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT OVERALL SHEAR TO SOME DEGREE...PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY NEAR AND NE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO EXIST OVER SD. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN PLAINS... A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A DEEPLY MIXED LOWER TROPOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG A DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD EXTEND SWD ACROSS WRN OK AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX E OF THE S PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION. ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE THE CAP CAN WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ATOP THE DRYLINE SUGGESTING LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. THE DRY/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER COULD AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS IN QUESTION ATTM...AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE ONLY LOW /5%/ SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM. A STORM OR TWO MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT EXPECT RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE CAP DURING THE EVENING TO RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN CONVECTION. ..GOSS.. 05/16/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Day 4 and 5 have grown in size for the region. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0349 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013VALID 191200Z - 241200Z...DISCUSSION...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN BROAD/GENERAL AGREEMENT THATSUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS DAYS 4-5 /SUN. 5-19 ANDMON. 5-20/ AND POSSIBLY INTO DAY 6. HOWEVER...RATHER PRONOUNCEDDIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF SHORT-WAVE FEATURES CASTSSUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DETAILS OF THE UPCOMING SCENARIO.IN GENERAL...THE TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THEPERIOD IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD IN A SOMEWHAT PIECEMEAL FASHION.THE INITIAL/ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE FEATURE SHOULD AFFECT THE CENTRALPLAINS SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELYTO OCCUR ALONG A ROUGHLY N-S SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRALPLAINS REGION AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLEDURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH 40 TO 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOPSTRONG LOW-LEVEL SLYS...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERYFAVORABLE BUOYANCY TO ALLOW STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOMESEVERE/SUPERCELLULAR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDSEXPECTED ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. SEVERE THREAT SHOULDCONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH LIKELY DIMINISHINGSOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE NRNPLAINS...A SECOND SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ROTATESEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION.AGAIN...TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE DIFFERS AMONGST THEVARIOUS MODELS...AND CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY WILL LIKELY HAVEINFLUENCED THE SURFACE PATTERN SUBSTANTIALLY -- BOTH OF THESEFACTORS YIELDING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE SEVERE WEATHERFORECAST. STILL...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND EMERGENCE OFTHIS SECOND/STRONGER SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SUGGESTS THREAT FORVERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES AS AFTERNOON STORMSERUPT ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND INTO PARTS OF KS/OK/NTX AND POSSIBLY NWRN AR.MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO DAY 6 /TUESDAY/...WHICH-- COMBINED WITH THE TWO PRIOR DAYS OF WHAT WILL LIKELY HAVE BEENWIDESPREAD CENTRAL U.S. CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER -- CASTS ENOUGHUNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST SUCH THAT NO AREAL DELINEATION OFTHREAT WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM BEYOND DAY 5. STILL...TUESDAY SEVEREPOTENTIAL WILL REQUIRE RE-EXAMINATION IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS AMPLESHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELYEXIST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Oh, and a bit off-topic, but what is with this nonsense on TWC's website in the "Top Stories" department when there has been a deadly tornado this evening and there is nothing on the front page that indicates this at all. /rant I just went through some other main news sites... CNN, Fox, BBC, and Accuweather all have mentions of Texas tornadoes on the home page. TWC does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 I just went through some other main news sites... CNN, Fox, BBC, and Accuweather all have mentions of Texas tornadoes on the home page. TWC does not. Sad, that's all that can be said. Also, here's your dandy sounding of the day, from Ft. Worth at 00z, note the SBLCL, ESRH, CAPE, CIN, SCP, crossover, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 I just went through some other main news sites... CNN, Fox, BBC, and Accuweather all have mentions of Texas tornadoes on the home page. TWC does not. Honestly that is mystifying, you are the WEATHER channel, who the hell are you trying to appeal to when you don't even talk about the tornadoes that hit in the last 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Honestly that is mystifying, you are the WEATHER channel, who the hell are you trying to appeal to when you don't even talk about the tornadoes that hit in the last 12 hours. Hi guys, We had a segment on this? It was on about an hour or so ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Honestly that is mystifying, you are the WEATHER channel, who the hell are you trying to appeal to when you don't even talk about the tornadoes that hit in the last 12 hours. It's pretty sad, all I see anymore are ridiculous sensationalist headlines. One recently was "Asteroid Heading Towards Earth? Pray, says NASA." Upon clicking you find out that it's some hypothetical scenario; completely and utterly ridiculous. Not to mention the use of the word outbreak at every opportunity 10 days before a weather event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Hi guys, We had a segment on this? It was on about an hour or so ago... Don't let facts get in the way of some good, old fashioned TWC hate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 It's pretty sad, all I see anymore are ridiculous sensationalist headlines. One recently was "Asteroid Heading Towards Earth? Pray, says NASA." Upon clicking you find out that it's some hypothetical scenario; completely and utterly ridiculous. Not to mention the use of the word outbreak at every opportunity 10 days before a weather event. It's disappointing really...every news station is like this though I flipped over to TWC last night for about 10 mins, just in time to hear them discussing Saturday and Sunday where Dr. Forbes was predicting "an outbreak of sorts" and his torcon was already at a 6...with basically NO information to back up the predicition/discussion...may prove a valid prediction but pretty tough to do four and five days out. Sensationalist TV sells though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Don't let facts get in the way of some good, old fashioned TWC hate Sometimes TWC does really good but the last couple years they've really begun to hype EVERYTHING that comes along...I would rather have the information without the hype until you're a day or so out. But they do have ot make money and if that keeps viewers tuned in, I'd rather have the TWC with a bit of hype than no TWC at all if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 The evolution of the Arlington cell looked really familiar last night. On June 1st, 2011 there was a funnel cloud sighted in my home town with a similar "dangling" pendant style hook. As the cyclonic circulation tightened at the base of the inflow, rather than seeing the echoes continuing to spiral inward as often witnessed in strong tornadoes, instead there is a doubling back, forming an "S" shaped signature with signs of weak anti-cyclonic rotation just in front. I'd be interested to hear some thoughts on the mechanics of this if folks have an idea what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 The evolution of the Arlington cell looked really familiar last night. On June 1st, 2011 there was a funnel cloud sighted in my home town with a similar "dangling" pendant style hook. As the cyclonic circulation tightened at the base of the inflow, rather than seeing the echoes continuing to spiral inward as often witnessed in strong tornadoes, instead there is a doubling back, forming an "S" shaped signature with signs of weak anti-cyclonic rotation just in front. I'd be interested to hear some thoughts on the mechanics of this if folks have an idea what's going on. Hey, it's great to be talking severe weather with you again! Looking forward to late May-July, as always (let's see if we can get another EML up this way haha). It is my understanding that there are occasionally 2 RFDs in the process of tornadogenesis with the second usually adding the strongest source of M. These processes were highlighted nicely in the Vortex II / Markowski papers that we discussed last year. Is this what you are referring to or did I miss what you were saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 What a day and not how we thought it would evolve. Ended up seeing three tornadoes with the first one near I-20/Weatherford lasting 10-12 minutes. We were further back and had a great view of the tornado as it occluded and got to see the new meso form to its east producing a 2nd smaller, shorter tornado. The 3rd one occured under a low rotating bowl with halfway down cone and several vortices dancing around underneath it. Ended up having bad road options after this and couldn't keep up with SE moving supercell. Overnight in SPS. I'm so happy for you! I'm glad things worked out for your chase trip! May 1990 strikes again? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Been proposed that the "S" signature is the RFD coming around the south side of the tornado. It matches up with the idea that the RFD can help give the storm it's final spin to drop the tornado. And what HM said - that was added as I'm typing. Meanwhile the 12Z NAM is in. Fires convection Saturday along an apparent boundary intersecting the DL in KS/OK. That boundary is probably outflow OFB left over from Fri. Suppose it would be there long as LLJ stays decoupled. Mixing down would destroy the OFB. Concerns of a high bases noted that far south where it'll be hot! Otherwise we got the synoptic WF farther north. Sunday looks good with one or more OFBs around plus the WF. Like those days. Multiple targets spreads out chasers. The one DL one WF is where you get 2,000 people on the triple point. Booo! Monday still showing that southern jet max coming out on the south end of everything. I have not looked hard at the synoptic WF and low up north, but not too shabby. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Hey, it's great to be talking severe weather with you again! Looking forward to late May-July, as always (let's see if we can get another EML up this way haha). It is my understanding that there are occasionally 2 RFDs in the process of tornadogenesis with the second usually adding the strongest source of M. These processes were highlighted nicely in the Vortex II / Markowski papers that we discussed last year. Is this what you are referring to or did I miss what you were saying? Been proposed that the "S" signature is the RFD coming around the south side of the tornado. It matches up with the idea that the RFD can help give the storm it's final spin to drop the tornado. And what HM said - that was added as I'm typing. Thanks guys. Both times I've seen this it turned out to be a null case (although a rope funnel might not be considered null), and so I was curious if it may have a destructive influence on tornadogenesis. Fully admit though that 2 cases is not significant. I'll reread the Markowski paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Prelim EF4 rating in Granbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 On the issue of yesterday's forecasts, the GFS did have some small errors that may have contributed to the less threatening forecasts in the morning. Comparing the 00z 5/15 run's 24 hr plots to the 00z 5/16 initialization, there was some erroneous moistening / cooling going on in SW Texas at 850-700mb. Here is the MAF 00z 5/16 sounding and the 700mb / 850mb initializations of the GFS: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/13051600_OBS/MAF.gif http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=00&fhour=00¶meter=DPTC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=00&fhour=00¶meter=TMPC&level=700&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false This is what the 00z 5/15 run looked like: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=00&fhour=24¶meter=DPTC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=00&fhour=24¶meter=TMPC&level=700&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false This small error actually had major implications for eastern Texas. The 850mb picture was way off, with deep moisture ending up further east than depicted. Also, this small error in moisture contributed to weaker modeled winds too, given the gradient ended up stronger than indicated. That's all it takes folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Basically, the 00z GFS put too much emphasis on this second wave in W TX while the first was still dominating (700mb closed low in OK, weaker moisture return in S TX to the second wave, better gradient and therefore better wind). Edit: For reference, here is the 13z outlook yesterday which kind of reflects the 00z GFS issues to some extent with the segmented tornado probabilities and westward placement of severe risk: Pay close attention to the tornado graphic: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_20130515_1300.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_v_20130515_1300.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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