phlwx Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 JTWC has it going to cat 1 s-s. GFS has it going into Bangladesh while JTWC has it bending more towards the border of it and Myanmar at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Probably will be less than H1, but it doesn't matter. Rain/flooding will be the big story from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Interestingly, a lot of well respected WPac forecasters think Mahasen has a chance to go RI tomorrow or Wednesday. When I look at the model outputs, I see shear changing from easterly to westerly over the next 2-3 days, which would produce a favorable period for intensification tomorrow, but then shear would weaken it again before landfall. The large scale environment will become less favorable over the next few days, as well, as the MJO continues moving east and the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave passes by. I'm not bullish on this forecast at all, but it definitely gives me pause that some good forecasters are going for a big forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Mahasen is badly sheared this morning. If you believe the Euro, shear should weaken for about 6-18 hours today, which will give the system a chance to intensify before shear increases again tomorrow, weakening the system before landfall. As before, I still believe heavy rain and flooding will be the primary threat here. My forecast of never-reaching-hurricane-strength seems more likely today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 15, 2013 Author Share Posted May 15, 2013 Rather sloppy lookin' at this point. Gonna be tough to get RI on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Rather sloppy lookin' at this point. Gonna be tough to get RI on this. Seems like a done deal at this point. Moderate TS landfall near the Bangladesh/Myanmar border. Lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.