IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 ECMWF weeklies are coolish for the next several weeks FWIW. It's in agreement with the CFS v2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 I strongly disagree. A lot has changed over 50 years. 50 years ago the urban footprint was limited to Manhattan, part of Brooklyn, part of the Bronx and a very small part of Queens. Now, effectively, all of the area from White Plains south to the Battery and east to about the Nassau-Suffolk line is urban. Suffolk, northern Westchester and all of Rockland County are suburban as opposed to rural farmland. In 1963, 50 years ago, Interstane 287 was a gleaming, relatively empty 60 MPH speed limit road. Ditto the parts of the Long Island Expressway that were completed. Now both are traffic-choked, reflecting the local urbanization. This has nothing at all to do with global warming. Nighttime lows are way up across the northeast... in towns and cities. It's not just a NYC phenomenon. A slight percentage increase in asphalt spatial coverage cannot explain it. This is not just UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Sacrus for the win place and show. He has been a beast this summer in indentifying this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 the mean temperature today and yesterday is 89.5...4.5 degrees off the record set in 2011... mean.....max min dates... 94.0.......104 84 7/22/2011 93.0.......104 82 8/07/1918 93.0.......102 84 7/15/1995 92.5.......103 82 8/09/2001 92.0.......103 81 7/06/2010 92.0.......101 83 7/06/1999 92.0.......102 82 7/21/1980 91.5.......101 82 7/05/1999 91.5.......106 77 7/09/1936 91.5.......100 83 7/23/2011 91.0.......100 82 7/02/1901 91.0.......102 80 7/10/1993 91.0.......104 78 7/21/1977 91.0.......100 82 7/31/1917 90.5.......100 81 6/26/1952 90.5.......101 80 7/22/1957 90.5.......103 78 8/26/1948 90.0.......100 80 7/07/2010 90.0.......100 80 7/08/1993 90.0.......102 78 7/31/1933 90.0.........98 82 8/01/1917 90.0.........97 83 8/02/2006 90.0.........98 82 8/09/1896 90.0.......101 79 8/27/1948 89.5.......over ten days at 89.5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 A look ahead on a midsummer night. A back and forth pattern with mean trough over the lakes and northeast with continued rain/cloud chances the next week but humid flow and some scattered 90 (+) readings should see temps at or above normal overall. WAR may have another further west expansion towards the first week of August with higher heights and the potential for the next sustained heat period. A bit of an unsettled period starting thu and into friday as trough and frontal boundry linger with waves of low pressure bringing continued clouds and rain chances. Temps have fallen to or slightly below normal for the first time in over a week. Tomorrow should see continued at or below normal temps . Southerly flow returns later fri (7/26) and much of the weekend as WAR builds west with center of ridge offshore allowing heights to rise along the coast forcing the trough back into the lakes Temps will again rise above normal aided mainly by higher mins but with enough sun some 90 (+) readings possible. WAR offshore will cause trough to close off over the lakes early next week before slowly lifting out over NNE next week by tues (7/30). Flatter flow with higher heights to close the month with continued warmer than normal temps the end of next week. As we head into August the pattern remains with a mean trough over the lakes and into the northeast with another front by 8/1. Eyes on Dorian during the period. Guidance has been hinting that the next sustained heat potential on/around August 3 by way of expanding WAR. Highlights: 7/24 - 7/26 temps at or below normal with rain chances 7/27 - 7/28 humid flow temps above normal with scattered 90 degree readings 7/29 - 8/2 ULL/trough tracks north of the area (7/29) temps near normal and continued rain/storm chances potential for 1 or 2 day heat surge between troughs (7/30-31) 8/3 - potential heat period begins WAR retrogrades west ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 A look ahead on a midsummer night. A back and forth pattern with mean trough over the lakes and northeast with continued rain/cloud chances the next week but humid flow and some scattered 90 (+) readings should see temps at or above normal overall. WAR may have another further west expansion towards the first week of August with higher heights and the potential for the next sustained heat period. A bit of an unsettled period starting thu and into friday as trough and frontal boundry linger with waves of low pressure bringing continued clouds and rain chances. Temps have fallen to or slightly below normal for the first time in over a week. Tomorrow should see continued at or below normal temps . Southerly flow returns later fri (7/26) and much of the weekend as WAR builds west with center of ridge offshore allowing heights to rise along the coast forcing the trough back into the lakes Temps will again rise above normal aided mainly by higher mins but with enough sun some 90 (+) readings possible. WAR offshore will cause trough to close off over the lakes early next week before slowly lifting out over NNE next week by tues (7/30). Flatter flow with higher heights to close the month with continued warmer than normal temps the end of next week. As we head into August the pattern remains with a mean trough over the lakes and into the northeast with another front by 8/1. Eyes on Dorian during the period. Guidance has been hinting that the next sustained heat potential on/around August 3 by way of expanding WAR. Highlights: 7/24 - 7/26 temps at or below normal with rain chances 7/27 - 7/28 humid flow temps above normal with scattered 90 degree readings 7/29 - 8/2 ULL/trough tracks north of the area (7/29) temps near normal and continued rain/storm chances potential for 1 or 2 day heat surge between troughs (7/30-31) 8/3 - potential heat period begins WAR retrogrades west ... the hottest part of the summer has past us...There are only five summers with a warmer 30 day period than the 6/24-7/23 30 day period this year...The last four year had a very warm 30 days... 2010...81.8 2011...81.0 2012...79.5 2013...81.7 I believe the heat will return in August but not as hot and not as long as what we had already...analog 1981 had a minor heat wave with three +90 days 8/4-6 after a cooler last week of July...another 90 degree day 8/10...we are running a little warmer than 1981 so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Nice to be able to turn off the ac and open some windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Nice to be able to turn off the ac and open some windows. Yup. 71/58 here w a stiff breeze. Feels great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 looking a head to August...August's after a hot July usually are warmer than average...three of the 12 were a top ten warmest August...five were near average or below... Year...ave temp... 1999...75.5 2010...77.4 1955...78.1 1952...74.9 2011...75.3 1993...77.2 1908...75.8 1966...76.9 1949...76.7 1983...77.7 1994...74.0 1944...77.8 1870- 2009...74.5 1980- 2009...75.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I think we'll be in the cooler minority category this year Unc, but we'll see. I'm at 15 90F days on the season, and going forward, I would be surprised to tack on more than 3 for me (or KNYC for that matter) by August 15th. If we flip the pattern by late August, 90F climo does decline rapidly, but we could accumulate a few more. My guess is I'll finish with 20 days this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 I think we'll be in the cooler minority category this year Unc, but we'll see. I'm at 15 90F days on the season, and going forward, I would be surprised to tack on more than 3 for me (or KNYC for that matter) by August 15th. If we flip the pattern by late August, 90F climo does decline rapidly, but we could accumulate a few more. My guess is I'll finish with 20 days this season. Not disagreeing but we have had a few years with a fair amount of post-8/15 90+'s. Those are 1944, 1953, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1983 1991, 1993, 1995, 2005 and 2010. Even 1969 and 1972, developing Ninos, had a fair number of those. So we're not finished with 90's quite that early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 If we do have any 90 degree days after about the 20th, they will probably be in the 90-93 range nothing like last week and no whole week of 90 degree readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 August and September max temp after a hot July... 1944...102...97 1949...100...87 1952.....90...94 1955...100...83 1966.....94...91 1983.....96...99 1993.....94...93 1994.....91...88 1999.....98...83 2010.....96...96 2011.....94...86 2013??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 August and September max temp after a hot July... 1944...102...97 1949...100...87 1952.....90...94 1955...100...83 1966.....94...91 1983.....96...99 1993.....94...93 1994.....91...88 1999.....98...83 2010.....96...96 2011.....94...86 2013??? As of latest guidance that might change. I do believe we have seen our highest readings of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 I added some years to my list of abundant post-8/15 90's. I do agree that 98 will be difficult, but not impossible to top. 1973 and 1983 are certainly examples. I think 2010 topped off at 97 for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2013 Author Share Posted August 17, 2013 Summer returning after a mainly 4 week hiatus and hope to get the forecast back on track as well. Guidance has been consistent in building heights and temperatures over the next few days with the next chance at some 90 degree readings (first since Jul 23 for most) by wed (8/21) and thu *8/22), before a the next cold front next weekend. We should cool back towards normal by next weekend (8/24-25) before the ridge builds in by mon (8/26). Today's euro hinting a some more heat as early as 8/26 as ridge bulds in strong d7 - d1`0. Overall warmer pattern looks to be returning through the end of August and into the start of jSep. We'll see how much we can dig out of these -3 to -4 monthly departures and see how the summer fairs overall. Highlights: 8/18 - 8/20 - temps at or above normal increasing warmth 8/21 - 8/23 - Potential 90 degree readings (pending on front timing for friday) 8/24 - 8/26 - cool down towards normal 8/26 - 8/28 - more warmth and potential heat (90 degree readings) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 so far the max temperature this month is 85 on the 9th...the record low max for August is 83 set in 1927...1927 saw 90 in September and early October...2013 will probably go over 90 next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 so far the max temperature this month is 85 on the 9th...the record low max for August is 83 set in 1927...1927 saw 90 in September and early October...2013 will probably go over 90 next week... not so sure. I could see nyc stay in the 86-88 range before the next cooldown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Have totally forgot it was summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Another day below normal in the 70's...but wait It's finally gonna feel like summer (August) for a least a few days... Lol...it's now all come down to whether or not someone will actually hit 90 before the month is done as that won't be an easy task. Summer 2013... 15 days hot the rest was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2013 Author Share Posted August 18, 2013 Another day below normal in the 70's...but wait It's finally gonna feel like summer (August) for a least a few days... Lol...it's now all come down to whether or not someone will actually hit 90 before the month is done as that won't be an easy task. Summer 2013... 15 days hot the rest was not. 90 degree days so far. The 30 day operiod June 20 - Jul 20th was one of the to 5 wamrest periods in any summer. The last 4 weeks have been overall cool. 90 degree days PHL: 19 (April: 0; May:3 ; June: 4; Jul: 12 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) EWR: 21 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 4; Jul: 15 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) TTN: 15 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 3; Jul: 10 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) LGA: 19 (April: 0; May:2 ; June:2 ; Jul: 15 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) ACY: 16 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 4 ; Jul: 11 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) TEB: 24 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 6 ; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 1 ; Sep: ) NYC: 15 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 10 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) JFK: 9 (April: 0; May: ; June:2 ; Jul:7 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) ISP: 10 (April: 0; May: ; June:2 ; Jul: 8 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) New Bnswk: 19 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 3; Jul: 14 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) 89 degree days PHL: 4 EWR: 5 TTN: 1 New Brunswick: 4 LGA: 6 ACY: 5 TEB: 3 NYC: 2 JFK: 1 ISP: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2013 Author Share Posted August 18, 2013 Another day below normal in the 70's...but wait It's finally gonna feel like summer (August) for a least a few days... Lol...it's now all come down to whether or not someone will actually hit 90 before the month is done as that won't be an easy task. Summer 2013... 15 days hot the rest was not. Should see widespread 90 degree reasdings wed/thu then again between 8/27 and 9/1. Id even say the park adds 3 more to come in line with 2011 and 2012 90 degress days, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Are some of you 10. This weather is really not all that unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Outside of the usual hot spots I don't think we will see many 90 degree days this week and maybe not for the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Outside of the usual hot spots I don't think we will see many 90 degree days this week and maybe not for the rest of the month. What is a "usual spot"? With 850 temps of 17 C and a southwest flow in the low levels I would be surprised if much of NJ away from the coast and NW elevated areas didn't get to 90 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 30, 2013 Author Share Posted August 30, 2013 A quick look ahead as we close out August. Above normal temps and humid conditions will continue the next few days with the next shot at 90 coming on Saturday if we see enough sun. We should see monthly departures recover and finish between -0.5 and -1 for most in CNJ into NYC. Areas south of there will end the month with greater departures. The latest guidance pushes a cold front through the region by tuesday with temps falling back towards normal by wed. Beyond there the ECM has fluctuated in its depiction between brining a progessive cold front or digging a deep trough and sendnig some cool temps later next week and weekend (9/6 - 9/8). The gfs has a warmup later next week before a cold front next weekend (9/8). Beyond there between 9/9 and the middle of the month ensembles and the op GFS have overall higher heights into the east coast with some hinting that the WAR produces a simialr humid and warm patern that we had the end of jun/early july. The period looks warmer than normal on the guidance and perhaps wet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 A quick look ahead as we close out August. Above normal temps and humid conditions will continue the next few days with the next shot at 90 coming on Saturday if we see enough sun. We should see monthly departures recover and finish between -0.5 and -1 for most in CNJ into NYC. Areas south of there will end the month with greater departures. The latest guidance pushes a cold front through the region by tuesday with temps falling back towards normal by wed. Beyond there the ECM has fluctuated in its depiction between brining a progessive cold front or digging a deep trough and sendnig some cool temps later next week and weekend (9/6 - 9/8). The gfs has a warmup later next week before a cold front next weekend (9/8). Beyond there between 9/9 and the middle of the month ensembles and the op GFS have overall higher heights into the east coast with some hinting that the WAR produces a simialr humid and warm patern that we had the end of jun/early july. The period looks warmer than normal on the guidance and perhaps wet as well. 1) Have we hit 90 in August?; and 2) Please pray for cool weather, but only for sundown September 13 to sundown September 14. Then torch on September 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 1) Have we hit 90 in August?; and 2) Please pray for cool weather, but only for sundown September 13 to sundown September 14. Then torch on September 15. August 21st hit 90 in Central Park... My two favorite analogs for September are 1964 and 1981...both were slightly below average overall but 64 had a cool spell the 13th-14th while 1981 was in the upper 80's...I'm leaning towards 1964's September but day to day weather is a guess at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 8, 2013 Author Share Posted September 8, 2013 Summer to make a late season return with the potential for 2/3 days -Tue - thu (9/10 - 9/12) of 90 + days for the area with most sites tacking on one more 90 reading at least. The surge of heat will be shrtlived and fall will serve up some cooler weather and a strong front by friday afternoon ushering a cool fall-like airmass next weekend ( 9/13 - 9/15). Beyond there, guidance has been consistent with building higher heights into the east for the longer range period 9/16 - 9/21 which should offer the next chance at some summertime warmth and perhaps the last outside chance at a 90 degree reading. An overall back and forth Rocky vs Apollo type pattern continues this Sep as summer tries to hold off the advances of fall. The period shouold avg on the plus side thru the 21. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0yoiBYbT2I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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