Summer Breeze makes me feel fine

[SACRUS]

How do you expect July/August to turn out in terms of temperature and precipitation? I am leaning warmer/drier than average.

 

 

I have no real changes to the summer forecast.  I believe the period to feature the greatest heat is end of June to mid July (6/20 - 7/20).  I also expect August to be the most above normal (monthly departure).  Unfortunatrely i think we remain with above normal precip but dont think july/aug will see excessive or record rains that june has.

[mupawxnut]

I have no real changes to the summer forecast.  I believe the period to feature the greatest heat is end of June to mid July (6/20 - 7/20).  I also expect August to be the most above normal (monthly departure).  Unfortunatrely i think we remain with above normal precip but dont think july/aug will see excessive or record rains that june has.

So do you expect a good amount of the precipitation to be more of the convective type?

[SACRUS]

Quick update:

 

Wamrup arriving by the end of the week.  12z guidance sets fire to the rain with a blast of heat this weekend and much of next week (6/22 - 6/26)  Suspect peak of the heat is mon to wed ahead of the next front later next week.  ECM pushing 850 temps to 20c by the 24th and an overall warmer pattern looks to continue into the next week. Will need to watch for clouds/storms but suspect we rack up 2-4 90 degree days pending on the location.  Maybe one day with some strong heat 95+.   Most guidance now showing a front and associated trough moving through towards the 28th/29th.  Longer range shows this to be potentially progressive and heights rise towards the end of the month and start of July.  Will try and post some maps and better look later on.  But next shot at 90s 22 - 26th.    

[winterwarlock]

Excellent trend and not a day too soon to finally get this summer pattern rolling

[SnoSki14]

With all of the talk about a cooler summer than the last few years, wouldn't it be funny if it turned out exactly the same.

Certainly signs point to a much hotter pattern developing before we even hit July.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

With all of the talk about a cooler summer than the last few years, wouldn't it be funny if it turned out exactly the same.

Certainly signs point to a much hotter pattern developing before we even hit July.

 

Highly doubt the hot conditions will continue. Deeply moist soil never attracts heat, unless if it's mixed with Tropical Moisture.

[Isotherm]

Pattern argues for the Euro's more transient heat. MJO pulse heading into phase 8 on both the GFS and ECMWF based guidance, which argues for strong cooling in the Northeast Day 5-10. Early/mid next week will be "dirty" warm with increased humidity, summer like feel, maybe some high temps approaching 90F, but nothing extreme or impressive for this time of year. Front should come through later next week with a cooler finish to June again, setting up a July pattern that's fairly similar -- back and forth with plenty of cool shots in the NW flow aloft.          

[Isotherm]

The cool down will probably be transient but what follows should be near normal temps. Phase 1 isn't all that warm either, near normal to a bit cool, and phase 2 cools off again.
 

[winterwarlock]

When all is said and done despite the cool proclamations june will end up above normal for most

[SACRUS]

Upcoming highlights;

 

** Warming trend at or above normal  6/20 - 6/22

**  Next shot of heat 6/23 - 6/26  90 - 95 variety with peak of heat tues potential 95 +

** cold front temps cool to near/below normal with any rain/clouds  6/27 - 6/29

**  next warming trend  6/29 - 7/5  - temps overall above normal with some chances at 90s

 

Great discussion Iso but looking over the latest runs from last night and 12z/18z today I will agrue that next mon or tues could feature some stronger heat in the warmer spots with readings to 95 or better.  We;ll see if clouds limit this but potential is there.  Interesting around at media, radio outelts very few forecasting heat..  Looking ahead -  2006,2003  seem to be leading the pack of analogs vs 2001/2009 .  Both were very wet and cool in June but featured a sharp turn around to warmer by the end of the month and into July.  2006 continued warm to hot through July before the late july early august heatwave commenced.  Suspect with the tendency for fronts but more progressive troughs we will remain wetter than normal but not extreme like June.

[Isotherm]

Upcoming highlights;

 

** Warming trend at or above normal  6/20 - 6/22

**  Next shot of heat 6/23 - 6/26  90 - 95 variety with peak of heat tues potential 95 +

** cold front temps cool to near/below normal with any rain/clouds  6/27 - 6/29

**  next warming trend  6/29 - 7/5  - temps overall above normal with some chances at 90s

 

Great discussion Iso but looking over the latest runs from last night and 12z/18z today I will agrue that next mon or tues could feature some stronger heat in the warmer spots with readings to 95 or better.  We;ll see if clouds limit this but potential is there.  Interesting around at media, radio outelts very few forecasting heat..  Looking ahead -  2006,2003  seem to be leading the pack of analogs vs 2001/2009 .  Both were very wet and cool in June but featured a sharp turn around to warmer by the end of the month and into July.  2006 continued warm to hot through July before the late july early august heatwave commenced.  Suspect with the tendency for fronts but more progressive troughs we will remain wetter than normal but not extreme like June.

 

 

Tony, I agree with you that early next week might feature the warmest locations hitting 95F. 850mb temp plume of +18c will be propagating into the area for Mon/Tue which translates into around 90F at the surface for most locations. However, places like Newark I could certainly see reaching maybe 92-94F, though I doubt any widespread mid 90s. Should see widespread uppers 80s/90F though Mon-Tue.

 

Heading into July, I actually have to disagree and think we'll begin to see more cooling progress into the Lakes/Northeast as we see a strong MJO pulse moving ewd across the tropical Pacific. Most phases with the exception of 1/3 are cooler w/ a strong MJO pulse in July. This coupled w/ the water SSTA profile in the Pacific right now argues for more of a back and forth July, potentially biased cool in the first 15 days. I don't believe this July will similar to 2006 temp wise. The AMO was significantly warmer, around +0.4 in the summer of 2006. Right now we're just slightly above neutral, +0.1c or so, with a +PDO. July IMO will feature numerous cool shots in NWLY flow aloft. Plenty of warmth as well, but continued convective and transient overall pattern. I still think August will be the warmest of the three summer months relative to normal but we'll see.

[SACRUS]

Second heatwave of the season in progress for many locations with readings in the low to mid 90s today.  Late afternoon storms and clouds put a lid on any further heating but tomorrow should be just as warm.   Looking ahead trough develops in tandem with mega western ridge and forces a front into the area by thu evening.  This has been well modeled the front hangs around fri and sat with storms and potential downpours.  Between Sunday (6/30) and Mon (7/1) the WAR is buiding west so that by Wed the 7/3 the trough is forced west into the lakes and the east coast is into a deep southerly (tropical) flow under rising heights.  Its Bermuda blues and tropical downpours for $100 Alex otherwise known as Florida weather.    A warm but potentially very wet with on/off showers, tropical down pours and in/out of .clouds.  When we can get some sun its very warm and I think overall its an above normal pattern 7/1 - 7/5.  Some hints that the WAR hooks with the Rockies ridge and we get a most of the nation-wide hot spell on/aruond the start of the holiday weekend (7/6).

 

 

 

[Isotherm]

I don't know Tony, with southerly flow and ocean temps below normal for this time of year, I think we'll have difficulty exceeding low 80s the first week of July with plenty of clouds and convection around. Might be a situation where far inland can reach mid 80s on southerly winds and coastal areas are barely 80F or lower. Averages for the first week of July are getting into the mid 80s, and the low level flow looks like lower maxima/higher minima type airmass. High dew points but I could envision a situation where we end up near normal with above normal night time temps and below normal day time temps.

 

My stab at the first four days..

 

 

7/1: 82/68

7/2: 80/70

7/3: 81/67

7/4: 80/66

[forkyfork]

the ocean is slightly above normal

[forkyfork]

if the ridging modeled over the maritimes is a persistent summer feature then we will have an elevated hurricane landfall risk

[ag3]

LGA breaking the all time heat record today with only 18-19c 850s and clouds, debris and even rain during peak daytime heating.

Just way too easy to break these heat records the past 5-6 years.

[uncle W]

LGA breaking the all time heat record today with only 18-19c 850s and clouds, debris and even rain during peak daytime heating.

Just way too easy to break these heat records the past 5-6 years.

records go back to the late 1940's for LGA...To bad we don't know what the temperature was there in 1888...NYC's record is 96 set in 1888...

[Isotherm]

the ocean is slightly above normal

 

 

Definitely looks quite a bit different than the one on Unisys:

 

[SACRUS]

Interesting unisys map differes in the Atlnatic from these two a bit as well.

 

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta

 

 

[SACRUS]

Last 2 days of guidance have consitently forecasted the WAR to build in stronger than what previous runs were showing for the 7/1 - 7/5 period . This will create a deep tropical fetch on a strong southerly flow with higher heights along the coast and a trough in the Lakes caught between the moster west coast ridge and WAR.  We should see overall warmer than normal temps with daytime highs in the 80s with warmer lows and very humid conditions with DT's in the upper 60s/low 70s or higher.  Outside chance of 90 degrees on the sunnier day(s) with  850 temps still projected in the 15c - 20c range, but plentiful clouds will limit that kind of heat.   I think once past Sat its more daily scattered showers (with some soakers) rather than widespread rainouts that we may experience later thu into saturday.  Still, these scatered Florida-like storms could yield some hefty totals the between 1st and the 5th.  

 

 

Beyond there seems that the flow flattens a bit and we may see a spike of heat on/around 7/6 into the week of the 8th.  

 

 

 

 

Highlights;

 

 

tracking

 

6/27 - 6/29 - Cold front plenty of storms, very wet peripd temps above normal

6/30 - 7/5 - WAR builds in, setup up tropical flow/high DT's.  Humid, warm (mainly 80s, limited 90s) increase chance of storms and potential downpours,

7/6 - 7/11 - Flow flattens, heat from WC ridge expands east  chance of next widespread 90 degree readings.

[JSantanaNYC]

Anyone has any idea if saturday will be wet or not.

[winterwarlock]

Highlights;

 

 

tracking

 

6/27 - 6/29 - Cold front plenty of storms, very wet peripd temps above normal

6/30 - 7/5 - WAR builds in, setup up tropical flow/high DT's.  Humid, warm (mainly 80s, limited 90s) increase chance of storms and potential downpours,

7/6 - 7/11 - Flow flattens, heat from WC ridge expands east  chance of next widespread 90 degree readings.

 

sounds good, thanks for the update. My local met seems to think Saturday could be the driest day of the next few but we shall see. It still will be warm and humid so we still get the summery feel even with the storms. Its too bad yesterday we topped out at just 89 and missed the heatwave

[uncle W]

the more I look at 1981 as an analog the more I like it for the Summer...It wasn't the hottest summer on record but it did have the 13th hottest seven day period of all time in NYC...from July 12th-18th the ave max min ave max temp...94.1 76.7 85.4...96...The average min of 76.7 is the fifth highest for a seven day period... we are getting warm minimums now and it should continue to get them as long as the jet stream is well north of our area...

[SACRUS]

Highlights:

6/30 - 7/3 - clouds, storms, rain.  warm/humid

7/3 - 7/7 - Western Atl Ridge builds in,  Hot/ humid chance of 90s

7/8 - 7/11 - continued warm/above normal

 

Looking ahead as we closeout June and head into July, a warm/humid pattern looks to continue through at least the first week July.   Heres how things look to line up 6/30 - 7/11;

 

 Huge ridge and core of the heat is anchored over the west coast with trough into the lakes/midwest.  A balloonin western atlantic ridge is just off the east coast Between them, a strung up frontal boundry will hang around the EC between sunday and wed (6/3 - 7/3)  with  clouds and periods of showers and rain.  Temps mainly around 80.

 

 A humid tropical mainly southery flow will stregnthen  as the western Atlantic Ridge builds west over the region between 7/1 - 7/8 (peaking 7/4 - 7/7).  This will raise heights to 594 DM by the 4th of July pushig the boundry and the majority of precip west of the area and digging the trough into the nations mid section.  Temperatures will increase as we reach mid week and into  the 4th of July holiday weekend as the ridge builds in.  We should see the next shot at 90s betwee thu (7/4) and Sun (7/7).  DT's will b very high in the 70s and produce high heat inex values. 

 

We should see continued ridging and an overall above normal pattern continuing into the week of the 8th with  higher heights and nationwide warm pattern.  The WAR looks to also balloon west through this period perhap linking with the Rockies ridge at times.

 

Riding the 2006 and now also the  2008 analogs with some weight for 2003.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Highlights:

6/30 - 7/3 - clouds, storms, rain.  warm/humid

7/3 - 7/7 - Western Atl Ridge builds in,  Hot/ humid chance of 90s

7/8 - 7/11 - continued warm/above normal

 

Looking ahead as we closeout June and head into July, a warm/humid pattern looks to continue through at least the first week July.   Heres how things look to line up 6/30 - 7/11;

 

 Huge ridge and core of the heat is anchored over the west coast with trough into the lakes/midwest.  A balloonin western atlantic ridge is just off the east coast Between them, a strung up frontal boundry will hang around the EC between sunday and wed (6/3 - 7/3)  with  clouds and periods of showers and rain.  Temps mainly around 80.

 

 A humid tropical mainly southery flow will stregnthen  as the western Atlantic Ridge builds west over the region between 7/1 - 7/8 (peaking 7/4 - 7/7).  This will raise heights to 594 DM by the 4th of July pushig the boundry and the majority of precip west of the area and digging the trough into the nations mid section.  Temperatures will increase as we reach mid week and into  the 4th of July holiday weekend as the ridge builds in.  We should see the next shot at 90s betwee thu (7/4) and Sun (7/7).  DT's will b very high in the 70s and produce high heat inex values. 

 

We should see continued ridging and an overall above normal pattern continuing into the week of the 8th with  higher heights and nationwide warm pattern.  The WAR looks to also balloon west through this period perhap linking with the Rockies ridge at times.

 

Riding the 2006 and now also the  2008 analogs with some weight for 2003.

Good summary, though I'd take issue with the 2008 analog.

WX/PT

[Isotherm]

Agree Tony that we have heat wave potential July 4th-8th. West atlantic ridge retrogrades and heights builds to 588dm.

 

However, I think we'll begin to see more cool air intrusion by the 12th-15th period / mid July as the MJO propagates eastward. My analogs for July are 1959, 1961, and still liking 2001. I see enough cooling to know us back to near normal for July but we'll see.

 

 

 

For August, the same analogs continue to show a torchy look for the Northeast, and I also still like the idea of August featuring the biggest heat of the summer relative to  normal.

 

[uncle W]

Agree Tony that we have heat wave potential July 4th-8th. West atlantic ridge retrogrades and heights builds to 588dm.

 

However, I think we'll begin to see more cool air intrusion by the 12th-15th period / mid July as the MJO propagates eastward. My analogs for July are 1959, 1961, and still liking 2001. I see enough cooling to know us back to near normal for July but we'll see.

 

 

 

For August, the same analogs continue to show a torchy look for the Northeast, and I also still like the idea of August featuring the biggest heat of the summer relative to  normal.

 

yea 59 and 61 had late season heat...July 59 was a little cooler than normal and July 61 a little warmer...September 1959 and 1961 are in the top ten warmest...This year will probably be wetter than those analogs...I like what happened in December 1959 and 1961 with a snowstorm just before Christmas...both years had a max of 97...

[SACRUS]

Summer pattern evolving and perhaps locking in.  Strong western  ridge centered over the Southwest with strong western atlantic ridge that balloons west focring mean trough over the lakes/midwest with brief periods of weaknesses in the WAR allowing for storms and reprieve from heat/humidity in the east before next WAR espansion east.  We'll see how it plays out but we;re in the first surge of the Western Atlantic ridge pumping heights along the east coas and giving us our next heatwave.  We should see a weakness in the ridge by monday (7/8) allowing storms to push east through the region and give a break from the heat.  The ridge rebuilds  tue-thu (7/9 - 7/11) ahead of a cold front and trough.  By the 11th a trough will push through the east coast with storms, and rain forcing temps back near normal into next weekend. I do think beside from clouds and storms its still warm and humid.  By sun 7/14 the WAR is building back west and setting up a more southerly flow with increasing humidity.  The WAR may be centered north of this current ridge and bring southerly-southeasterly flow for a period before it builds west and the flow goes more SW by the 7/15th.   I think the fear of the summercast being too cool may be the case for July.  But so far the heat from end of june to mid july could yield the hottest temps. If this pattern does lock in, we may have some tropical troubles sooner or later.

 

Heres how the next week to 10 days looks;

 

7/6 - 7/7:  Continued hot an humid mid 90s DT in 70s ,  very high Heatindex

7/8:  clouds and storms give brief brak from heat, still humid

7/9 - 7/11:  Hot, humid more widespread 90s (scattered storms) as ridge shifts east ahead of trough

7/11 - 7/13:  Coldfront with storms and break from heat.  Still warm/humid but front will get hung up ahead of next surg from the WAR.  Rain chances increased, clouds.  Humid southerly flow develops..

7/14  - 7/16:    WAR rebuilds and next surge of heat and 90s

[SACRUS]

Heart of the summer to feature some strong heat (perhaps hottest of the summer).  Latest guidance continues with peristent warm/above normal pattern the next week to 10 days.  Western Atlantic Ridge will expand west  by Sunday (7/14) pumping heights into the east ( 592 -  596 DM) and pushing trough into the south.   The WAR eventually  hooks with the rockies ridge by tue (7/16) setting up westerly flow and a period of potential major heat through the end of next week (7/19).   The ridge relaxes by the weekend of the 20th but suspect any cooling gets us back near normal.  Longer range suggests heights rebuild with more heat on/around 7/24 perhaps drier pattern emerging.  Analogs 2006 taking the lead over 2003.  2006 and 2001 featured strongest heat of their summers the end of july and early August - we'll see if that analog trend holds true.  

 

 

Highlights:

 

7/12 - 7/13 : Front nearby with storms/clouds and temps closer to normal

7/14 - 7/15 : WAR expands  west building heights and high humidity and  widespread heat (90s) returns

7/16 - 7/19 :   Potential for strong heat mid/upper 90s 

7/20 - 7/23:  cold front and trough temps back near normal

7/24 :  Ridge rebuilds with potential for more heat

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Heart of the summer to feature some strong heat (perhaps hottest of the summer).  Latest guidance continues with peristent warm/above normal pattern the next week to 10 days.  Western Atlantic Ridge will expand west  by Sunday (7/14) pumping heights into the east ( 592 -  596 DM) and pushing trough into the south.   The WAR eventually  hooks with the rockies ridge by tue (7/16) setting up westerly flow and a period of potential major heat through the end of next week (7/19).   The ridge relaxes by the weekend of the 20th but suspect any cooling gets us back near normal.  Longer range suggests heights rebuild with more heat on/around 7/24 perhaps drier pattern emerging.  Analogs 2006 taking the lead over 2003.  2006 and 2001 featured strongest heat of their summers the end of july and early August - we'll see if that analog trend holds true.  

 

 

Highlights:

 

7/12 - 7/13 : Front nearby with storms/clouds and temps closer to normal

7/14 - 7/15 : WAR expands  west building heights and high humidity and  widespread heat (90s) returns

7/16 - 7/19 :   Potential for strong heat mid/upper 90s 

7/20 - 7/23:  cold front and trough temps back near normal

7/24 :  Ridge rebuilds with potential for more heat

 

Yeah, I agree. The hot airmass next week will definitely be the hottest of the year. Having this same setup in August will yield cooler result in a cooler airmass, due to the lower sun angle. Also, a WAR pattern can be torn apart easier with more reinforced shots of cooler air in August. Hopefully this will happen, otherwise will walk into a hot August.