SACRUS Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Quick summer thoughts on this very california-like and gorgeous mothers day. Can we get 4 in a row above normal/hot summers or do we end the streak with a hat trick. Early thoughts are we simmer down from the prior 10-11-12 trio but still should see a decent stretch of summer weather and come out on the plus side of average for the 3 months, not much unlike last year. My analogs favored a blend of 2006, 1996, 2012. The core of any heat and any above normal stretch between late June and mid July with August best shot at above normal. The season should see normal to above normal precip. At this time im feeling there is a better chance I am to cool than too warm. # 90 (+) days EWR: 27 (25 - 30) NYC: 15 (15 - 20) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Quick summer thoughts on this very california-like and gorgeous mothers day. Can we get 4 in a row above normal/hot summers or do we end the streak with a hat trick. Early thoughts are we simmer down from the prior 10-11-12 trio but still should see a decent stretch of summer weather and come out on the plus side of average for the 3 months, not much unlike last year. My analogs favored a blend of 2006, 1996, 2012. The core of any heat and any above normal stretch between late June and mid July with August best shot at above normal. The season should see normal to above normal precip. At this time im feeling there is a better chance I am to cool than too warm. # 90 (+) days EWR: 27 (25 - 30) NYC: 15 (15 - 20) we have three straight years with at least one day 100 degrees or higher...The record is four set from 1952-55...as of now my analogs are not hot summers...This year's enso is starting out neutral and is forcasted to stay that way...most years with a similar oni index became el nino's by years end... if an el nino develops the analogs would be... year....ave temp 90+days 100+ max... 2006........74.9..........7........0........97 1951........73.7..........7........0........94 1968........74.3........17........0........98 If it stays neutral the analogs would be... 2001........74.9........15........1......103 1996........73.1..........3........0........96 1981........75.8........16........0........96 if la nina develops the analogs would be... 1984........75.3........10........0........96 1967........74.0..........9........0........96 If a strong el nino develops the analogs would be... 1963........73.1........16........0........98 1965........72.5........15........0........95 1972........73.6........15........0........94 1997........73.3........12........0........97 1986........73.6........11........0........98 2009........72.0..........7........0........92 long term average....73.9........15......0.4.......97 these are just my enso analogs for the summer... if el nino develops there is a 67% chance we see a warm summer...If a strong el nino develops chances are good we see a cooler than average summer...If La nina develops it could be on the warm side...neutral has a 67% chance of being on the warm side...none of these summers had over 20 days 90 or higher...only one year had a 100 degree day...as of now I'm leaning on the cool side but that could change... A summer song... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Uncle, great stats and we generally agree on the temperature regime. Only one nitpick: 63-64 was not a strong El Niño, but rather a weak warm event. I think a strong El Niño would virtually guarantee a cooler, wetter summer, but I don't think we necessarily need the development of a huge +ENSO event to get those cool anomalies. Blocking and improving soil moisture across the Midwest/Plains argue for a lot less torching than the last few summers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 This summers ENSO state is most likely going to be neutral. Most models are showing a warm biased neutral but that's not an El Niño.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 This summers ENSO state is most likely going to be neutral. Most models are showing a warm biased neutral but that's not an El Niño.. it looks like a neutral summer coming up but will it become an el nino by next winter?... Some of these years were neutral thru the summer but became el nino's after...1963 was 1.1 on the oni index for DJF 63-64....any el nino over 1.0 I put in the strong category...The 30 year average for the summer is almost 75.0 now...only two of these analogs were above that and not by much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Nice posts Unc and Sacrus. Just looking at ENSO history since 1950, we rarely go more than 4 winter seasons without some type of +ENSO event. The last +ENSO regime was 2009 to early 2010, so climatologically, we are in fact due for another warm ENSO 2013-14. Model wise, there's plenty of divergence in the individual ensembles. Some of the ECMWF's members take region 3.4 to weak nino while others bring us to weak Nina. The SOI hasn't been showing any strong signals either way, but hovering on the slightly positive side, which tells me we're in no hurry to develop an El Nino. If a weak el nino does develop, I think it would probably wait until later this year, i.e., possibly too late to impact summer's temperatures. Latest region 3.4 temps are about as neutral as they get, +0.10C. It'll also be interesting to see how May finishes with respect to blocking. Do we continue the +AO/NAO regime or does blocking develop by June? That will have an impact on the summer. At this point, I'm most confident about above normal precip for the summer. Temp wise, I'd also lean cooler than the last 3 summers like Unc and Tony, but I wouldn't be willing to go cooler than normal yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 17, 2013 Author Share Posted May 17, 2013 Great stuff guys and looking forward to discussing the summer, As far as tracking any potential heat - there could be some hinting on the longer range as we head into memoral day week on/around the 28th. Height seem to rise ahead of next front and perhaps we see the first chance of 90s for a day or two. Plenty of time to track but the next 7 - 10 days looks to stay near normal temp-wise and wetter than normal including Memorial Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 Great stuff guys and looking forward to discussing the summer, As far as tracking any potential heat - there could be some hinting on the longer range as we head into memoral day week on/around the 28th. Height seem to rise ahead of next front and perhaps we see the first chance of 90s for a day or two. Plenty of time to track but the next 7 - 10 days looks to stay near normal temp-wise and wetter than normal including Memorial Day weekend. Guidance continues to show ridging heading east with height rise later next week leading to a period of potential heat as we close May and start June. This week fell just shy due to clouds - we'll see where next week leads us once past memorial day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 24, 2013 Author Share Posted May 24, 2013 ECM showing 850 temps aproaching 20c by the end of next week on/around May 29th into next weekend. First widespread 90s could be on the way before June. 12z http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ecmwf&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=TT850&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=192 00z was hotter http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ecmwf&run=00&stn=TT850&hh=000&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&hh2=000&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Some very hot summers started with late May or early June heat waves...Some years it was the only heat wave...Late May and early June heat waves in NYC...three or more days 90 or higher...year...dates.......max. temps...95+1880...5/25-27.....96 95 951895...5/30-6/3... 96 96 961899...6/5-8.........951919...6/2-4........ 951925...6/3-7........ 99 99 98 961930...6/3-5........ 941931...5/28-30.... 931966...6/4-6........ 951984...6/7-11...... 96 951986...5/30-6/1... 941987...5/29-6/1... 972008...6/7-10...... 96 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 This is so much like 2008. Similar May temps, heat wave going into June, above avg June (CFSv2 has well above average June) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 This is so much like 2008. Similar May temps, heat wave going into June, above avg June (CFSv2 has well above average June) Are you saying that means no more summer heat after early June? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 24, 2013 Author Share Posted May 24, 2013 Are you saying that means no more summer heat after early June? Im not sure what TWC is implying but 2008 featured the early June heatwave between the 7th and 14th, but July was also above avgr (+1.5 for most locations) and had a strong surge of heat between 15th and 21st. Overall the Jun/jul period was moderately above normal and August was on the cooler side with very few 90 + readings in 2008. It will be interesting where this year takes us but I am expecting Aug to be above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 24, 2013 Author Share Posted May 24, 2013 Overnight guidance still consistent with warmth buildnig next week with potential first wideapread 90 degree (+) readings between May 29 and Jun 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Good posts and agree w/ Sacrus that the first shot of widespread 90s is likely to close May and begin June. Whether or not that heat will be a recurring theme this summer is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Are you saying that means no more summer heat after early June? No. 2008 had some heat in July. Im not sure what TWC is implying but 2008 featured the early June heatwave between the 7th and 14th, but July was also above avgr (+1.5 for most locations) and had a strong surge of heat between 15th and 21st. Overall the Jun/jul period was moderately above normal and August was on the cooler side with very few 90 + readings in 2008. It will be interesting where this year takes us but I am expecting Aug to be above normal. That's what I'm implying. Do think Aug will be above avg. like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Right now, I think July has the best shot at being cooler than normal though honestly I haven't researched the summer in depth yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 26, 2013 Author Share Posted May 26, 2013 As we approach closer range the latest guidance remains consistent in building heights and sending a surge of heat over the region between wed and sun (5/29 - 6/2). Many places should see their season's first 90(+) readings. Looking a bit beyond there, a cold front looks to arrive sometime sun/mon, but it doesnt appear to be very cool behind the front with temps still warm and ridging is already in postion to push east on the longer range on/around 6/6. This is way out but overall theme the cold/rainy start to Memorial day is over and its off to the races in a few days... 00z ecm has 850 temps approaching 18 - 20c by thu-sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 If July is going to be below normal because of clouds and rain then no thanks. I'd rather have above normal and at least be dry and sunny than a chance of rain all the time with an ugly, cloudy, soupy airmass perpetually in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Could the worst heat be in early summer this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 we have three straight years with at least one day 100 degrees or higher...The record is four set from 1952-55...as of now my analogs are not hot summers...This year's enso is starting out neutral and is forcasted to stay that way...most years with a similar oni index became el nino's by years end... if an el nino develops the analogs would be... year....ave temp 90+days 100+ max... 2006........74.9..........7........0........97 1951........73.7..........7........0........94 1968........74.3........17........0........98 If it stays neutral the analogs would be... 2001........74.9........15........1......103 1996........73.1..........3........0........96 1981........75.8........16........0........96 if la nina develops the analogs would be... 1984........75.3........10........0........96 1967........74.0..........9........0........96 If a strong el nino develops the analogs would be... 1963........73.1........16........0........98 1965........72.5........15........0........95 1972........73.6........15........0........94 1997........73.3........12........0........97 1986........73.6........11........0........98 2009........72.0..........7........0........92 long term average....73.9........15......0.4.......97 these are just my enso analogs for the summer... if el nino develops there is a 67% chance we see a warm summer...If a strong el nino develops chances are good we see a cooler than average summer...If La nina develops it could be on the warm side...neutral has a 67% chance of being on the warm side...none of these summers had over 20 days 90 or higher...only one year had a 100 degree day...as of now I'm leaning on the cool side but that could change... A summer song... nino 3.4 was -0.4 now...still neutral but getting a little negative...It doesn't look like an el nino will develop anytime soon...Neutral or la nina conditions for this Summer...usually a developing el nino would mean a greater chance of a cool August...2009 was an exception...The coolest temperature recorded in August is 50 set in 1885, 1965, 1976, 1982 and 1986...All developing el nino's..1967 was a la nina Summer and it ended up having a cool August...June was warm but July thru Sept were cooler than normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 the last three years had their hottest temperature in July...2009 saw its hottest day in April and August...some of my analogs had their hottest temperature in June...the last three years had a max temp of 100 or higher...I'm guessing the max will be 95-98 between June 20th and July 4th...TWT...here are the stats for reference purposes... NYC's highest temperature and month.2012...........100...............July2011...........104...............July2010...........103...............July2009...........92.................April/Aug.2008...........96.................June/July2007...........92.................July/August2006...........97.................August2005...........99.................August2004...........91.................June2003...........94.................July2002...........98.................August2001...........103...............August2000...........93.................May1999...........101...............July1998...........93.................July1997...........97.................July1996...........96.................May1995...........102...............July1994...........98.................June1993...........102...............July1992...........93.................May/July1991...........102...............July1990...........95.................July1989...........96.................July1988...........99.................July/Aug.1987...........97.................May1986...........98.................July1985...........95.................August1984...........96.................June1983...........99.................September1982...........98.................July1981...........96.................July1980...........102...............July1979...........95.................July/Aug.1978...........95.................July1977...........104...............July1976...........96.................April1975...........98.................August1974...........95.................July1973...........98.................August1972...........94.................July/Aug.1971...........96.................July1970...........94.................July/Aug/Sept.1969...........97.................May1968...........98.................July1967...........96.................June1966...........103...............July1965...........95.................June1964...........99.................June/July1963...........98.................July1962...........99.................May.1961...........97.................July1960...........91.................July/Aug.1959...........97.................June1958...........93.................July..Some other years...1881...........101...............September1895...........97.................September1898...........100...............July1901...........100...............July1902...........90................July1911...........100...............July1914...........95.................September1915...........94.................September1918...........104...............August1921...........96.................September1925...........99.................June1926...........100...............July1930...........102...............July1931...........99.................September1932...........96.................September1933...........102...............July1934...........101...............June1936...........106...............July1937...........102...............July1944...........102...............August1948...........103...............August1949...........102...............July1950...........95.................June1952...........100...............June1953...........102...............September1954...........100...............July1955...........100...............July/Aug.1956.............99...............June 1957...........101...............July The latest date for the hottest annual temperature is 97 on 9/23/1895...95 on 9/22/1914 99 9/11/1983...The earliest date is 96 on 4/18/1976... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 As we approach this seasons first surge of heat that should bring widespread 90 degree readings between wed and sun (5/29 - 6/2) lets take a peak ahead. The latest guidance continues to bring a cold front through the region sometime between overnigh saturday and late sunday. Behind the front a surge of cooler weather is expected mon - wed next week. Beyond there, there is a signal that a southerly flow develops with ridging extending along the east coast. While this should produce a warmer pattern, the chances for increased storminess and potential hung up fronts exists before a stronger ridge and more sw flow develops into the week of 10th. Considering this, we should see the next chance of heat 90+ readings on/around the 8th but a more humid and increased rain chances by the end of next week. We'll see how it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 3rd day into this first bout of heat and 2 more to go. Looking ahead - cold front should pass through between late Sunday and monday morning. behind the front we should see a cooler tue/wed before a warmer/more humid southerly flow develops by the end of next week. As pointed out earlier while this southerlly flow with the W. Atlantic ridge extending into the East coast should deliver warmer temps and the next shot at 90s it may also include increased chances for rain. Add in a tropical disturbance which has been projected to track near Florida and then potentially up the coast the weekend of 6/8 - 6/10 could be warm but wet. We'll need to track how this evolves but the theme is after short cool down its warmer but likely also wetter times ahead on/around 6/6 - 6/10. Beyond there perhaps the next signal for a blast fmo the southwest furnace closer to mid month.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 For those warm weather folks, Ill try and do a daily summary of the overnight guidance (starting today) and track when the next potential heat may occur. Models continue to show an active wet and normal/below normal pattern the next week to 10 days. We'll generally setup under or just east of a trough with a strong signal a cutoff ULL could pass through the region next week tue - thu (6/11 - 613). At times while in the southerlly flow and with the right conditions we could see a warm day or two and an outside shot at 90 in the warmer spots between 6/10 - 6/16 but its not likely with plenty of clouds and rain chances. We likely wind up near or below normal 0 to -5 for the period. Looking ahead, as ridging expands from the Rockies into the Plains later next week, guidance is slowly hinting that heights finally rise as the ridge pushes east into the week of the 16th. So with that - the period to watch for the next blast of heat is likely delayed until the week of 6/17 - 6/23 and perhaps we end June warmer. This is way ahead but its safe to say till then, its less heatand more humidity and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8, 2013 Author Share Posted June 8, 2013 Overnight guidance took a step in a warmer direction for the period (6/16 - 6/23) we're watching for the next heat signal. Both the gfs, ecm and their ensembles are showing heights rising ito the east as the rockies and plains ridge builds east over that week. The ecm control run looks very warm towards the 22. Again, this is far into the models ranges but there is some peristence and consitency for the heat to return on/around 6/16. Before then the northeast continues to be dominated under a weakness and subsequent trough and with that more near normal to below normal temps with more rain chances over the next week before more sustained warmth returns fathers day weekend. Beyond there as we close June I suspect there will be a tendency for periods of troughing between spikes of heat, but these periods short shorten. This is the period in the summer castI am expecteing that is most likely for some heat - late June/to Mid July. We'll see where the afternoon guidance takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2013 Author Share Posted June 15, 2013 We're slowly building some consistency in the latest guidance that we move into a warming and drier trend this week with a chance of some heat by next weekend. GFS/ensembles are the most aggressive with the heat potential on/around 6/22 but the ecm and ggem are also indicating heights rise and we enter an overal warm pattern the end of this coming week. Still am cautious with this signal as the last 10 days have proven to be stuborn with any ridging or heat pushing east but I believe its a matter of it was delayed not denied. With that we look for the next heat signal next weekend and to close June and head to July 4th forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 We're slowly building some consistency in the latest guidance that we move into a warming and drier trend this week with a chance of some heat by next weekend. GFS/ensembles are the most aggressive with the heat potential on/around 6/22 but the ecm and ggem are also indicating heights rise and we enter an overal warm pattern the end of this coming week. Still am cautious with this signal as the last 10 days have proven to be stuborn with any ridging or heat pushing east but I believe its a matter of it was delayed not denied. With that we look for the next heat signal next weekend and to close June and head to July 4th forecast How do you expect July/August to turn out in terms of temperature and precipitation? I am leaning warmer/drier than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 How do you expect July/August to turn out in terms of temperature and precipitation? I am leaning warmer/drier than average. After this May and June I hope that isn't wish-casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 I'm sure we'll get plenty of hot days, we always do, but given all the moisture we had, it'll be difficult to get extreme heat. We have a good 3 months of warm/hot weather coming up so even the cooler, wetter first half of June doesn't take too much away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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