NaoPos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Impressive numbers a day out, regardless of outcome . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow, that is impressive. I do think tomorrow has a lot of potential. Been alerting folks here in Camden County with Skywarn and the EOC as well. We'll have to see how this all unfolds, but certainly things have picked up with all the heavy rain we got and now some of the severe we've been seeing. Curious to see if Mount Holly may issue a briefing package for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Seems like York/Lancaster/Lebanon counties are the perennial twister bullseye. Could bear out again tomorrow if the warm front presses far enough north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This story is on the web now. http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/12/18918028-sloppy-storm-threatens-millions-with-severe-weather-feared-derecho?lite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Seems like York/Lancaster/Lebanon counties are the perennial twister bullseye. Could bear out again tomorrow if the warm front presses far enough north.It's already soupy out here today in Hershey. Feels like temps will be warmer than progged for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow, that is impressive. I do think tomorrow has a lot of potential. Been alerting folks here in Camden County with Skywarn and the EOC as well. We'll have to see how this all unfolds, but certainly things have picked up with all the heavy rain we got and now some of the severe we've been seeing. Curious to see if Mount Holly may issue a briefing package for this event. I'm betting they will, considering we've got flood potential to the north and high-end SVR to the south. Impacts the whole CWA in one way or another! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I accidentally posted that in MA subforum, meant to bring that up here. Being a skeptic from coastal central NJ I can't help but worry about that around here, especially with an unusually strong LP approaching from the west. And it will all come down to where exactly the warm front is, perhaps modulated by overnight convection?..somewhere just south of there or inland enough along it there should be an impressive tornado threat, and then further south a high end damaging wind event through DC/VA. For the record, I'm not really in agreement with you here. This has high end potential all over it, though the risk for something to not pan out increases around here versus further south. i think the southeast wind will put a lid on the severe weather threat anywhere north and east of a nw to se oriented line from hunterdon county to monmouth county. the one thing that concerns me is that the forecast models are all very persistent in indicating a late-game push of the wf from southeast pa into central new jersey to around staten islands latitude at 18z tomorrow. that coincides with the arrival of the best forcing and there could be an instability surge to near or just south of the fronts position at that time. given the more impressive low level shear along the wf and the surface low so nearby..you have to wonder if there could be multiple rotating storms along or near the wf at some point tomorrow afternoon...with the greater widespread wind damage threat farther south extending from southeast pa and southern nj into the mid atlantic. although i hate looking at simulated radar images the hi-res nam illustrates this point a bit, with a signal for some impressive updrafts near and along the warm front with the wind damage threat extending south from there. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rad33.gif the southeast winds and cool ocean waters will certainly kill this threat for nyc, ct and long island but the extent to which the severe threat develops into new jersey is still very much in question. i think the potential is there for a higher end event with wind damage and a few tornadoes along the warm front...its not often we see this deep of a system and this pronounced of a warm front this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 i think the southeast wind will put a lid on the severe weather threat anywhere north and east of a nw to se oriented line from hunterdon county to monmouth county. the one thing that concerns me is that the forecast models are all very persistent in indicating a late-game push of the wf from southeast pa into central new jersey to around staten islands latitude at 18z tomorrow. that coincides with the arrival of the best forcing and there could be an instability surge to near or just south of the fronts position at that time. given the more impressive low level shear along the wf and the surface low so nearby..you have to wonder if there could be multiple rotating storms along or near the wf at some point tomorrow afternoon...with the greater widespread wind damage threat farther south extending from southeast pa and southern nj into the mid atlantic. although i hate looking at simulated radar images the hi-res nam illustrates this point a bit, with a signal for some impressive updrafts near and along the warm front with the wind damage threat extending south from there. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rad33.gif the southeast winds and cool ocean waters will certainly kill this threat for nyc, ct and long island but the extent to which the severe threat develops into new jersey is still very much in question. i think the potential is there for a higher end event with wind damage and a few tornadoes along the warm front...its not often we see this deep of a system and this pronounced of a warm front this time of year. All good points. You have to wonder to which degree impressive forcing/lift will also make up for less instability in some of the areas you outlined as well. Going to be a fun day to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It's already soupy out here today in Hershey. Feels like temps will be warmer than progged for today. Dew points are currently in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 And like clockwork, the 12z gfs comes In as a convulted mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 And like clockwork, the 12z gfs comes In as a convulted mess. So what would that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 So what would that mean? to simplify it...like during winter when you are 36 hrs from an event and like 10 runs in a row it shows .5-1 of qpf and this run drops .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 to simplify it...like during winter when you are 36 hrs from an event and like 10 runs in a row it shows .5-1 of qpf and this run drops .1 Haha yeah i got that part. But was just wondering if it came true what would it mean for severe risk/rain threat. Trying to pass the time before lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Haha yeah i got that part. But was just wondering if it came true what would it mean for severe risk/rain threat. Trying to pass the time before lunch severe threat would be pretty much confined to delmarva-balt-dc...rainfall wise heaviest i80 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Not directly relevant, but SPC is going to High Risk for IL/IA/IN/OH today. Tornadoes followed by MCS. No mention of the D word. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1040.html Edit: The 1630Z Day 1 Outlook does mention a possible derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I suspect SPC will at least tick southward with the higher probabilities/hatching on the new 1730z Day 2 Outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 gfs brings more rain next week. when does dry season start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The new 12z GFS/UKMET clearly show a more progressive evolution as a convectively-induced vorticity maximum rides east a bit ahead in the long-wave. They both also show the SLP diving more southeastward throughout the afternoon and have better timing with current trends/placement of features than the slower 00z ECMWF (all of which is outlined nicely in this afternoon's model discussion). Clearly, the situation tomorrow relies heavily on what kind of beast develops today in the Midwest and the effect it has on the mid levels. Even with the progressive/further south scenario, a tornadic window may still exist late morning-early afternoon for the areas outlined in this morning's hatched zone from the SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 New spc day 2 outlook remains the same as the 0z update. I can't say I agree with it* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Euro more or less holds serve...maybe a hair south. It all comes down to how far north the warm front gets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 SPC has issued a PDS Tornado Watch for Northeast Iowa, Northern Illinois, Southeast Minnesota, and Southwest Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 NAM parameters on 18z aren't as robust for severe for SE PA. Still favorable in DE. Combo of MCS decay and a lil bit faster movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 if the 12z euro is correct the warm front never makes it past philly, with high temps near 70 with 1-3 inches of rain for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Mike did the AFD today for short term here is a link for the complete read. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Didn't have much to add in the long term on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Tornado watch issued for the Ohio valley, includes garret county Maryland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think it is safe to say the radar has exploded in the Chicago area over the past 2 or 3 hours. Went from nothing of significance to quite a significant event. Watches and warnings have followed suit. Nor sure what it means - if anything for us - but pretty impresssive radar. Probably quite a light show to follow once the sun goes down in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 18hr 00z RAP places a 997mb low in north-central PA. (likely overdone SBCAPE) is only about 1500 in PHL, but quickly rises to 4000-5000 over SW DE and the BWI/DCA areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njweatherlurker Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 question from a very non-technical person (and I apologize if I am intruding); from what I am reading it looks like this will be a mostly S. Jersey event, and Mercerville (Hamilton Twp. near Trenton) will be spared. Am I reading the posts correctly? (and again, please forgive me if I am intruding....I usually just lurk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 question from a very non-technical person (and I apologize if I am intruding); from what I am reading it looks like this will be a mostly S. Jersey event, and Mercerville (Hamilton Twp. near Trenton) will be spared. Am I reading the posts correctly? (and again, please forgive me if I am intruding....I usually just lurk) it all depends on the warm front. It could reach as far north as monmouth county, or not even get to PHL. Just gotta keep on top of the threat and surface obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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