phlwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 NAM is ok within 18 hours or so. It's not bad in nowcasting but is trash outside of it. It did well with Andrea...actually did better than the Euro inside 24 hours on QPF placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 NAM is ok within 18 hours or so. It's not bad in nowcasting but is trash outside of it. It did well with Andrea...actually did better than the Euro inside 24 hours on QPF placement. It was bad within 12 - 8 hours of that secondary rain on Saturday. Had absolutely NOTHING in those areas that got up to an inch in some places in Delaware. How can you miss that? That's bad. On a happier note, possible chase day Thursday????? I'm free, and don't start my new job at cbs21 for a week or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 It was bad within 12 - 8 hours of that secondary rain on Saturday. Had absolutely NOTHING in those areas that got up to an inch in some places in Delaware. How can you miss that? That's bad. On a happier note, possible chase day Thursday????? I'm free, and don't start my new job at cbs21 for a week or two Congrats Jim on the new job! Where is CBS21 located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 It was bad within 12 - 8 hours of that secondary rain on Saturday. Had absolutely NOTHING in those areas that got up to an inch in some places in Delaware. How can you miss that? That's bad. On a happier note, possible chase day Thursday????? I'm free, and don't start my new job at cbs21 for a week or two No way! Congrats! Guess you'll be at the rival station then, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Thank you! Harrisburg . Not doing weather though so no worries I love it out here and will be living in Hershey. This is great sprint car country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Thank you! Harrisburg . Not doing weather though so no worries I love it out here and will be living in Hershey. This is great sprint car country. Not worried! Love a little competition. Good to have some weather connections here in the SusQ Valley....they are few and far between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This is a fantastic area. I used to work with Ryan Coyle at wnep when we were up there. Great guy and great forecaster. Just waiting for the severe season to finally start in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 theremos aside, this is one sick nasty wind profile the NAM is printing out. 0z NAM @ KPHL 21z thusday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Holy god. A Day 2 Moderate. SHEAR WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...ANDTHUS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGINGWINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. ATTM...THE GREATESTTORNADO RISK APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN A ZONE FROM NRN VA/MD/DE NWDINTO CENTRAL AND ERN PA AND NJ...WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ISFORECAST JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND INVOF THE WARM FRONTEXTENDING E FROM THE LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 theremos aside, this is one sick nasty wind profile the NAM is printing out. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1371009781.049434.jpg 0z NAM @ KPHL 21z thusday. That is an amazing sounding for this region...or really anywhere this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It was bad within 12 - 8 hours of that secondary rain on Saturday. Had absolutely NOTHING in those areas that got up to an inch in some places in Delaware. How can you miss that? That's bad. On a happier note, possible chase day Thursday????? I'm free, and don't start my new job at cbs21 for a week or two Most models missed that level of rain in the short term if I'm not mistaken. I don't think the GFS or Euro had that level of rain BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Here's a look at the PHL area 6z NAM forecast sounding: The sweet spot given proximity to low pressure center, warm sector and overlap with strong wind shear looks to be from E MD into DE, SE PA and S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Anyways, regarding tomorrow, I think SE PA (Lancaster, Chester specifically) down into NE MD and Northern Del are going to be prime time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 theremos aside, this is one sick nasty wind profile the NAM is printing out.ImageUploadedByTapatalk1371009781.049434.jpg 0z NAM @ KPHL 21z thusday. That is an amazing sounding for this region...or really anywhere this far east. that's what i though when i saw it. Thats one sexy hodo for this region. anyways, the sref's are spitting out some "decent" figures as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 expecting big flooding issues since area is so wet. my yard / woods can't absorb anymore rain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Do you pick the GFS/ECM or NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 No slam dunks in this business were dealing in, but wow at this potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 No slam dunks in this business were dealing in, but wow at this potential What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Do you pick the GFS/ECM or NAM? Gfs and euro all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Kind of of dumb question but what would the timing be for this? I guess what times would storms be expected to start firing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 NjWinter23 raised an excellent point in the Mid Atlantic subforum about the cold ocean potentially putting a lid on things. That plus the fact the mountains tend to disrupt these things should be a red flag for those wishing to chase or get too excited. SPC had a MOD risk out yesterday and that did not pan out either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The cold ocean will only help stop the warmfront pushing northward. High shear with a huge trigger will help producing long lasting storms. To be honest, this is unprecedented, anything can happen. I think unprecedented is a little much here. Is it a favorable setup? Sure. But it's not like we're talking about a 980mb low plowing through with CAPEs in excess of 4000. With these events and this area, much is conditional, especially with respect to the exact location of the warm front, which will determine the areas of cloud cover and good surface heating. There are a lot of things working in favor of a solid event, one that needs to be monitored by everyone, but to call it unprecedented is to imply that we have no way of predicting the possibilities or skill in handling the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think unprecedented is a little much here. Is it a favorable setup? Sure. But it's not like we're talking about a 980mb low plowing through with CAPEs in excess of 4000. With these events and this area, much is conditional, especially with respect to the exact location of the warm front, which will determine the areas of cloud cover and good surface heating. There are a lot of things working in favor of a solid event, one that needs to be monitored by everyone, but to call it unprecedented is to imply that we have no way of predicting the possibilities or skill in handling the situation. Correct. Im just a little exicited lol. Its rare for a sub 990MB to be off the coast for the month of june that is not tropical. But if everything goes correctly, it could be a nasty day. If the warmfront goes just a little more north, that would spell trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Correct. Im just a little exicited lol. Its rare for a sub 990MB to be off the coast for the month of june that is not tropical. But if everything goes correctly, it could be a nasty day. If the warmfront goes just a little more north, that would spell trouble. I hear you. I just wanted to keep us from whipping ourselves into a frenzy. That stubborn warm front is what folks north of, say the PA Turnpike should be worried about if they want widespread severe instead of . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think unprecedented is a little much here. Is it a favorable setup? Sure. But it's not like we're talking about a 980mb low plowing through with CAPEs in excess of 4000. With these events and this area, much is conditional, especially with respect to the exact location of the warm front, which will determine the areas of cloud cover and good surface heating. There are a lot of things working in favor of a solid event, one that needs to be monitored by everyone, but to call it unprecedented is to imply that we have no way of predicting the possibilities or skill in handling the situation. I still think their is a lot of uncertainty how far the warm front gets in regards to philly metro area to abe. Also, if places clear out or not. I'm also wondering if this will be a case like last year in the dc/balt area where they never really cleared out in fact were under overcast skies majority of the time and because the dynamics were so strong it was still able to produce severe weather. Adding sun to anything would just greatly increase the chances. I don't get the severe parameters on the euro just precip amounts and the other general stuff. The track of the low looks pretty close to the 6z gfs track. The euro shows a nasty 6hr qpf blob of 1.5-2 inches over se pa, but it keeps the straiform rain pretty close to the region all day. I would think for se pa, you would want that warm front to push up towards abe for a good svr outbreak and potential clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I still think their is a lot of uncertainty how far the warm front gets in regards to philly metro area to abe. Also, if places clear out or not. I'm also wondering if this will be a case like last year in the dc/balt area where they never really cleared out in fact were under overcast skies majority of the time and because the dynamics were so strong it was still able to produce severe weather. Adding sun to anything would just greatly increase the chances. I don't get the severe parameters on the euro just precip amounts and the other general stuff. The track of the low looks pretty close to the 6z gfs track. The euro shows a nasty 6hr qpf blob of 1.5-2 inches over se pa, but it keeps the straiform rain pretty close to the region all day. I would think for se pa, you would want that warm front to push up towards abe for a good svr outbreak and potential clearing. The SE PA warm front is the new I95 rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I live in Bucks County, just 25 mins north of the turnpike. I am a FF/EMT, so I am very interested in what is happening around me in regards to weather. What are your thoughts? Tombo hit it it pretty squarely on the head. It's going to be a matter of dynamics (good) vs. local instability (good when you're far enough south of the warm front). You don't need clearing over your head to get whacked later in the day, but you do want some surface heating and good convective parameters upstream at the very least. The big severe threat is not from whatever leftover overnight MCS might be deflating over the region (which will have been self-sustained for a while); rather, we're relying on fresh initiation during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Tombo hit it it pretty squarely on the head. It's going to be a matter of dynamics (good) vs. local instability (good when you're far enough south of the warm front). You don't need clearing over your head to get whacked later in the day, but you do want some surface heating and good convective parameters upstream at the very least. The big severe threat is not from whatever leftover overnight MCS might be deflating over the region (which will have been self-sustained for a while); rather, we're relying on fresh initiation during the day. I think you may see two areas develop for severe weather. Places that can clear which i would favor delaware, maryland, Dc area...A second area may get going around where that warm front halts with the increased shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The warm front is trying to advect north right now overhead, alot of building CU. Wind direction is out of the WSW. In regards to the Cold Atlantic (mid to upper 60's), that will definitely hurt your warm sector chances but a south wind versus a southeast wind can work miracles even if you only barely manage to scrape by with enough instability. Being north of the warm-front and along the coast will probably not work out for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What are your thoughts? NjWinter23 raised an excellent point in the Mid Atlantic subforum about the cold ocean potentially putting a lid on things. That plus the fact the mountains tend to disrupt these things should be a red flag for those wishing to chase or get too excited. SPC had a MOD risk out yesterday and that did not pan out either. I accidentally posted that in MA subforum, meant to bring that up here. Being a skeptic from coastal central NJ I can't help but worry about that around here, especially with an unusually strong LP approaching from the west. And it will all come down to where exactly the warm front is, perhaps modulated by overnight convection?..somewhere just south of there or inland enough along it there should be an impressive tornado threat, and then further south a high end damaging wind event through DC/VA. For the record, I'm not really in agreement with you here. This has high end potential all over it, though the risk for something to not pan out increases around here versus further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.