SouthernNJ Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 TDWR showed Very Strong low-level rotation at 439 PM EDT over Glasgow, the rotation continued over I-95 near Newark between 445 and 451 PM scans of TDWR. Even saw a BWER signature on reflectivity near Newark at 451. My guess is the warning forecaster saw the TDS, checked TDWR and issued the warning at 446 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I work in newark. I didnt notice anything, wish I was able to go outside and look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 my golf course in wayne is absolutely getting owned by rain... 2.16 and counting... .06 in a minute How you think the USGA is feeling? Recently we have had more of low lcl days that are tornadic or potentially tornadic around our area, days with flash flood watches are becoming the ones to watch for tornadoes too. Think of that tornado in Philly a couple of years ago and last September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Good point Tony....the damage assessments coming across the fire scanner and the reports of people I know in the area suggest this was the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 edit 1.77" 1.83" today so far 3.30" Friday. __________ WET! playing butter valley tomorrow 10am, hope it drains well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Good point Tony....the damage assessments coming across the fire scanner and the reports of people I know in the area suggest this was the real deal. It is in our LSR now. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 How you think the USGA is feeling? Recently we have had more of low lcl days that are tornadic or potentially tornadic around our area, days with flash flood watches are becoming the ones to watch for tornadoes too. Think of that tornado in Philly a couple of years ago and last September. Merion is state of the art with there drainage and what not. I know a good amount of the volunteers working at it and they will be fine as long as the creeks don't flood or wash up onto the greens. I have never played at mention but their greens I would imagine are built to USDA specs which is 12 inches of a 80/20 sand/ mushroom soil mix. Even after all the rains the sand greens drain very fast. Our course main issues is we are on old push up greens with native clay soil. Anyways off topic but up to 2.87 at the course in Wayne. I imagine pretty good flooding I the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Gotta admit I didn't think we'd have a tornado near Wilmington and a TOR watch up into Philly today. The heavy rain was definitely there but the severe was not expected by most folks. The severe threat so far has been rather isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 It is in our LSR now. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Thanks Mike. Heard about damage following up Route 72 to where the housing development is. Lots of trees and wires down, consistent with what you guys have in the LSR. NBC 10 just said something about it on the 6 pm news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 2.88 looks to be it for now at the course.. 1.53 here in gilly so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Glasgow storm damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Glasgow storm damage. ImageUploadedByTapatalk 21370902549.334955.jpg ImageUploadedByTapatalk 21370902564.514704.jpg Yeah...more pics on delawareonline.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Merion is state of the art with there drainage and what not. I know a good amount of the volunteers working at it and they will be fine as long as the creeks don't flood or wash up onto the greens. I have never played at mention but their greens I would imagine are built to USDA specs which is 12 inches of a 80/20 sand/ mushroom soil mix. Even after all the rains the sand greens drain very fast. Our course main issues is we are on old push up greens with native clay soil . Anyways off topic but up to 2.87 at the course in Wayne. I imagine pretty good flooding I the area I can confirm that. 3 cars stuck in the middle of Lancaster Ave. by Landmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 geeze, more to come! golfing looks very wet tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Fwiw....latest SPC update to our watch continues for our area but meso discussion focuses more on Va and MD for further tornado threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD/VA...DE...SRN NJ CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 293... VALID 110041Z - 110145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 293 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A LOW-END TORNADO RISK MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEYOND 02Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF WW 293. SPC WILL COORDINATE WITH AFFECTED WFOS ON A PROBABLE TEMPORAL EXTENSION OR POSSIBLY A REPLACEMENT WW. DISCUSSION...N/S-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD AT AROUND 20-25 KT. A FEW TRANSIENT EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN AREA RADAR IMAGERY. GIVEN THE PERVASIVE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS WITH A LARGE CURVING HODOGRAPH NOTED IN 00Z DOX/AKQ VWP DATA...THERE IS CONCERN THAT A LOW-END TORNADO RISK MAY PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING. STILL...WITH INSTABILITY LACKING IN THE 00Z WAL/IAD RAOBS...THE LONGEVITY OF THE TORNADO THREAT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 06/11/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD/VA...DE...SRN NJ CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 293... VALID 110041Z - 110145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 293 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A LOW-END TORNADO RISK MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEYOND 02Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF WW 293. SPC WILL COORDINATE WITH AFFECTED WFOS ON A PROBABLE TEMPORAL EXTENSION OR POSSIBLY A REPLACEMENT WW. DISCUSSION...N/S-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD AT AROUND 20-25 KT. A FEW TRANSIENT EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN AREA RADAR IMAGERY. GIVEN THE PERVASIVE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS WITH A LARGE CURVING HODOGRAPH NOTED IN 00Z DOX/AKQ VWP DATA...THERE IS CONCERN THAT A LOW-END TORNADO RISK MAY PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING. STILL...WITH INSTABILITY LACKING IN THE 00Z WAL/IAD RAOBS...THE LONGEVITY OF THE TORNADO THREAT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 06/11/2013 Down in DC nasty line just came through, not severe here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Jersey part of watch was allowed to.expire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Yep, guess PA is in the clear in terms of tornadoes now - watch expired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott W Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 West Chester has seen 2.41" so far today. 7.19" in last 7 days 8.05" for month Wowsa! Can anyone explain what that feature on the radar is just east of BWI? It's like a mini-low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 New NAM looks filthy for Thursday for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Guys it's the NAM come on already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Guys it's the NAM come on already.The gfs was more robust.Just haven't had time to post them. Todays 12z GFS @ thursday 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I dont know how much it costs, but its worthwhile if not much to buy the RAOB program. It gives a truer picture of atmospheric instability because you can change the erroneously high sfc dew points that the GFS et al forecast way too often. That cape is based on a 76 dew point at ILG, gfs mos is about 10F lower. This doesnt take away from the severe threat on Thursday as the fcst bulk shear is not thrown off the rails as much by that inherent model error and the warm sector/near warm sector is going to be problematical regardless. Sub/near 1000 mb lows in June dont go quietly into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I dont know how much it costs, but its worthwhile if not much to buy the RAOB program. It gives a truer picture of atmospheric instability because you can change the erroneously high sfc dew points that the GFS et al forecast way too often. That cape is based on a 76 dew point at ILG, gfs mos is about 10F lower. This doesnt take away from the severe threat on Thursday as the fcst bulk shear is not thrown off the rails as much by that inherent model error and the warm sector/near warm sector is going to be problematical regardless. Sub/near 1000 mb lows in June dont go quietly into the night. I agree, whenever you have a contrast of 50s on the north side of the low and upper 80s to near 90 on the south side of the low, that type of gradient raises eyebrows. Either way you put it, this will have an affect on the region, unless the track shift way up into new england. A track over and south of philly will put us in a heavy rain threat. A track north of philly through lehigh valley will put se pa on south in a major risk for severe weather. I don't have the adjusted numbers like you do, so i can only go off the inflated gfs numbers. The 12z gfs has some sick numbers for se pa on south. Cape is over 1500, with LI over -6, and the shear straight through the column is pretty robust. The metro area is right on the cusp for severe impact, so if you are a fan of this you would want the gfs to nudge a little further north. The 12z euro is a little further south than the gfs and track the low basically right over the pa turnpike. Which in my opinion would put the best severe chances from delaware and extreme southern jerz south and west. The euro also slows down the low and pretty much has it raining for a day plus... it is spitting out another 2-4 inches of rain for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Not impressed with severe possibilities in pa/nj but Delmarva to Potomac Maryland swamps Into Virginia look decent if it slows down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 For Delmarva on Thursday lapse rates appear steep with sufficient instability in the hail growth zone. The bulk shear shown above will promote storm organization and a wind threat. From looking at this I would suspect severe storms, slight risk is justified depending on low track for the region. Hydro concerns will again be the main issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I see the 18Z NAM yes its the NAM has slightly shifted north with the low and a tid bit faster? Still looks the same strength but maybe a hair stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I see the 18Z NAM yes its the NAM has slightly shifted north with the low and a tid bit faster? The nam performed abysmal last Saturday with the heavy rains over south jersey and Delaware. I've Given up what little faith I had in the nam after that performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The nam performed abysmal last Saturday with the heavy rains over south jersey and Delaware. I've Given up what little faith I had in the nam after that performance. Pretty much agree. We have been saying this since winter...go with the gfs and euro, bottom line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.