Boch23 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 No lightning or wind last night but that cell that moved through at 1:30 last night had some heavy rain with it. Guessing somewhere between .5 and .75 in 15-20 mins or so. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I really thought that line that was in York and Lancaster counties was going to make it to Delco in full strength, did these outrun the best forcing or did some sort of shear blow off the tops I know we did have a lot of the parameters to support the cells moving towards our section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I really thought that line that was in York and Lancaster counties was going to make it to Delco in full strength, did these outrun the best forcing or did some sort of shear blow off the tops I know we did have a lot of the parameters to support the cells moving towards our section. Your first mistake was thinking that line from York was going to make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Your first mistake was thinking that line from York was going to make it.With tops to 45,000 to 50,000 feet and still trying to build higher I was like wow maybe just maybe Delco will get a decent smack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Would be interested to see a plot of legit severe weather reports from the jun-August timeframe from the mt.holly warning area.. Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Would be interested to see a plot of legit severe weather reports from the jun-August timeframe from the mt.holly warning area.. Anyone? - total LOL svr wx season for Bucks, can go back to 1996 on the ncdc link but hard to imagine a more abysmal season for Bucks County note - added MAY to the equation since it's historically a good severe weather month http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Could be an interesting day. The storm that rolled through yesterday had a little meso on it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 AM CDT MON OCT 07 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VIRGINIA...CNTRL AND ERN MARYLAND...ERN PENNSYLVANIA...SRN NEW YORK STATE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 071210Z - 071415Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO REQUIRE ONE OR MORE WATCHES...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE 13-14Z TIME FRAME. DISCUSSION...A NARROW ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BAND APPEARS TO GRADUALLY BE IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING ALONG A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FRONT NOW CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY WHILE ACTIVITY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH SUBSTANTIVE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH INDICATING 850 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE BY THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME. INSTABILITY APPEARS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING...AND COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUING TO LAG THE SURFACE FRONT...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT MOISTURE CONTENT IS SEASONABLY HIGH...AND CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT CAPE THROUGH FAVORABLY COLD MID-LAYERS TO SUPPORT ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THIS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION TO SUPPORT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. AS PRECIPITATION LOADING INCREASES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS PROBABLY WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT...AND THE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF RATHER LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SEEMS LIMITED BY THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Also Just incresed wind Probs to 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Finally back to work from my maternity leave and I get to track storms! Yay!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I just started a seperate form for today's threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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