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2013 Mt. Holly CWA Convection Thread


SouthernNJ

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We'll have one helluva cold front between now and Friday, but with no storms to show for it. Best forcing stays NORTH AND WEST of SEPA. Shocked ehh?

6umupa3u.jpgbavy8uvy.jpg

Just the epitome of how the weather has been down here in this neck of the urban heat island.

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We'll have one helluva cold front between now and Friday, but with no storms to show for it. Best forcing stays NORTH AND WEST of SEPA. Shocked ehh? Just the epitome of how the weather has been down here in this neck of the urban heat island.

the timing and best forcing just doesn't favor our region, repeat of how this summer has been for severe. I'm afraid this front comes through dry or with very little rain as the storms are dying as they get away from the best forcing.

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Could be our last shot this year.

 

post-1201-0-57023400-1379009781_thumb.gi

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1879
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY / NRN VA / ERN WV PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 121729Z - 121900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER MULTICELLS MAY POSE A LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SEVERAL TRANSVERSE
CLOUD BANDS AND DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER WV WHILE FARTHER
E...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE UPPER PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY
WITHIN A LEE TROUGH. MODIFYING THE 12Z IAD RAOB FOR 17Z SURFACE
CONDITIONS CHARACTERISTIC OF AREAS E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN /90 TEMP
AND UPPER 60 DEWPOINT/...YIELDS THE REMOVAL OF ANY REMAINING
APPRECIABLE CINH AND MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG
MLCAPE/. ALTHOUGH WLY FLOW IS GENERALLY CONSIDERED WEAK AS OF 17Z
PER KLWX VWP...THE APPROACH OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES UPPER VORTICITY
MAXIMUM TOWARDS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL
IMPETUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT /IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL HEATING/ IN
THE FORM OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FAVOR AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...THE MORE VIGOROUS CORES MAY POSE AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR
POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 09/12/2013


ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 38447653 38557848 38897939 39677928 39697695 39617592
39117584 38447653

 
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Watch up now. Can see the storms building west of here. 

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUM. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 523...WW 524...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 26020.


...MEAD

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Update on watch. Line is bowing a little in York County

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1883
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA/NJ/ERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525...

VALID 122024Z - 122130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS WW525 OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

DISCUSSION...LONG LIVED SQUALL LINE CONTINUES ITS EWD MOVEMENT AT
ROUGHLY 35KT ACROSS CNTRL INTO ERN PA...EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DCA
METRO AREA. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD ENTER THE PA COUNTIES OF
WW525 SHORTLY THEN PROGRESS TOWARD THE NJ COAST BY 13/01Z.
CONVECTIVE WINDS APPEAR TO BE GUSTING TO AT LEAST 35KT AND AT TIMES
WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE THE PRIMARY
THREAT SHOULD BE WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND.

..DARROW.. 09/12/2013

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