tombo82685 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 pretty much all the models agree on .75-1.5 inches of rain tomorrow over the region. Timing should be between 3am-11am for the heaviest rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Could see a few strong wind gusts and even a brief spin up or two from SE PA into S NJ tomorrow morning into midday as low pressure passes by. Pretty good kinematic support, impressive veering on skew-t's and strong curvature on the hodographs. Even MLCAPE is modeled near or above 1000 J/kg by 15z. I wouldn't be surprised at all if SPC throws down a 2% TOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 00z NAM forecast graphics for ILG at 15z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Could see a few strong wind gusts and even a brief spin up or two from SE PA into S NJ tomorrow morning into midday as low pressure passes by. Pretty good kinematic support, impressive veering on skew-t's and strong curvature on the hodographs. Even MLCAPE is modeled near or above 1000 J/kg by 15z. I wouldn't be surprised at all if SPC throws down a 2% TOR. Thanks for posting about down here Quincy. A couple of cells down here in SJ were trying to get some rotation earlier today, so it's gonna be interesting what happens tomorrow morning with better dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Thanks for posting about down here Quincy. A couple of cells down here in SJ were trying to get some rotation earlier today, so it's gonna be interesting what happens tomorrow morning with better dynamics.I will say the RAP/NAM are more impressive than the GFS. It could get interesting though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Forgot to post these earlier, what do you guys think. Non rotating wall cloud? Or am I just full of it, lol. It was definitely a lowered base though, and there was an interesting feature on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 I've seen worse couplets produce. You can see the hook in reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Severe T-storm Warnings now for SE PA and N DE. New Tornado Warning too: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ632 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE... NORTHERN CECIL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND... SOUTH CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 715 AM EDT* AT 630 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM CONTAINING THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS NEAR CHARLESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... HOLLYWOOD BEACH AROUND 640 AM EDT... NORTH EAST AND ZION AROUND 645 AM EDT... BLAKE AROUND 655 AM EDT... ELKTON AND CHERRY HILL AROUND 700 AM EDT... BARKSDALE AND APPLETON AROUND 705 AM EDT... GLASGOW AND NEWARK AROUND 710 AM EDT...WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANSTHAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAYALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCEDBUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOWSPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.TAKE COVER INSIDE NOW. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. MOVETO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. PUT ASMANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS YOU CAN. AVOID WINDOWS.PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&&LAT...LON 3979 7575 3955 7557 3947 7600 3952 7599 3955 7603 3954 7607 3956 7610 3957 7610 3957 7609 3956 7608 3957 7608 3963 7615TIME...MOT...LOC 1032Z 252DEG 19KT 3957 7601$$KLINE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 Despite being at the edge of range, BWI and PHL TDWR's were showing good lower-level circulation very near Northeast MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 over 4 inches of rain in coatesville so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Here in NW Chester County as of 7am 1.12" and still coming down to beat the proverbial band, Quite a bit of lightning also picking back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 The storm near Willow Grove may have strong to damaging wind gusts with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 2.02" so far. A couple of rounds of heavy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 heavy rain moving in during heart of commute....hopefully not a repeat of scenes of people stranded in high water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 Very nasty looking just north of Philly. Very strong winds, heavy rain, and occasional circulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 2.51 here at work in wayne... .92 in gilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Walked into the building and the power went out....Thought I was gonna go home early, but then it came back on. Very heavy rain right now at the airport. Occasional flash of lightning but mostly heavy rain is the big threat right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Wind driven heavy rain National.Park.NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 The COBBS creek is starting to flood over its banks here in Ardmore, pa in Havertown and the rain is still heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Here in National Park....ponding in my neighborhood as extensive and swift as the day PHL set its recent record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 closing in on 3 here at work in wayne, 2.85.. chester county is taking the prize, seeing 5.1 in coatesville right now with alot of that area in the 3-5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 This needs a tor warning asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 We are watching it. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1376398611.784144.jpgThis needs a tor warning asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 2.51 here at work in wayne... .92 in gilly No rain gauge at my house in Spring Mount, but I'd think it has to be over 1.5" of rain...at my workplace near Lansdale, it has been raining very hard for quite a while...probably over 2" here with lots of water on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Breaking records becoming a broken record round here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 3.1 at the course here in wayne...staggering 6.53 in coatesville..1.63 in gilly at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Breaking records becoming a broken record round here.. How many records do we need to break to break the record for most records broken in one year for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 3.1 at the course here in wayne...staggering 6.53 in coatesville..1.63 in gilly at home Wow, down here in Chesterbrook we have 4.24. Crazy there's that much of a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 some shots from the course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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