NJHurricane Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 The usually-conservative ARW is spitting out 3-4" for SE PA tomorrow. Meanwhile, the NAM has backed down to less than an inch. Go figure.Summer 2013...its hydrologically malicious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Looks like there is still at least an outside shot at a nader. 2% per the SPC: ...MID ATLANTIC REGION...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERNUNITED STATES...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM WESTERNPA INTO EASTERN KY/TN. RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDSAHEAD OF THE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH AMPLE PWAT VALUES AND DEWPOINTSWELL INTO THE 60S SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMDEVELOPMENT. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILLBE SUFFICIENT FOR TRANSIENT ROTATION IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowoman Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Look out! Strong thunderstorm in West Chester is coming right up Route 202 towards Mark & I!SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ1128 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013PAZ070-071-102-104-106-011630-DELAWARE PA-EASTERN CHESTER PA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY PA-LOWER BUCKS PA- PHILADELPHIA PA-1128 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL CHESTER...NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHERN PHILADELPHIA...SOUTH CENTRAL BUCKS AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...AT 1122 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WEST CHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR DEVON-BERWYN AROUND 1140 AM...RADNOR TOWNSHIP AROUND 1150 AM...CONSHOHOCKEN AROUND NOON...FLOURTOWN AROUND 1210 PM...WILLOW GROVE AROUND 1220 PM AND WARMINSTER HEIGHTS AROUND 1230 PM.LAT...LON 4002 7565 4007 7557 4011 7542 4015 75374017 7540 4027 7523 4026 7521 4028 75194029 7520 4034 7512 4008 7490 4005 74973989 7558$FORECASTER:PO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Wife on way to work reports flooding again on 130 gloucester city near klemm ave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Well it's a new month and whats new? Notta, more big numbers. This better not end come winter or else! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Well it's a new month and whats new? Notta, more big numbers. This better not end come winter or else! Ohh don't worry. We'll get plenty of rain this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 I guess friday could be the next potential for "severe" storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 I guess friday could be the next potential for "severe" storms. It looks like the cold front will be too far west during peak heating on Friday, and move through before peak destabilization on Saturday. Probably more of an Ohio and western PA threat Friday, at least as far as organized severe goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Will we have one area wide precip event this summer without flash flood potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Couple of rumbles of thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Crapvection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Bumped to slight risk for SE PA and all of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Looking at the radar most of the activity looks to be north, although there is still a chance in parts of se pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Yeah, it will be interesting to see if we get much of anything today. I'm ready for a good boomer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 So Much moisture in the air today it is hard to look up at the sky. Hopefully this leads to something. good bit of activity off to the west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Looks like 40N will see action. same as winter....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Not really impressed with severe chances today. A little more clearing might have change my mind. Those showers out west are struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Looks like 40N will see action. same as winter....lol It's awfully early to be making a statement like this. Granted, it's always been a very marginal day, but there's no crystal ball that tells you that nothing will form south of the Mason Dixon, at 2pm, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 It's awfully early to be making a statement like this. Granted, it's always been a very marginal day, but there's no crystal ball that tells you that nothing will form south of the Mason Dixon, at 2pm, lol. No, but as of right now, of course it may change weather always does. I don't care one way or the other in summer, but winter now that's something we all care about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 I wonder if anything interesting will happen when the two small cells along the Chester/Montgomery County border merge in the next few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 It's awfully early to be making a statement like this. Granted, it's always been a very marginal day, but there's no crystal ball that tells you that nothing will form south of the Mason Dixon, at 2pm, lol. No, but as of right now, of course it may change weather always does. I don't care one way or the other in summer, but winter now that's something we all care about! And look, just 40 minutes after your statement, just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Of course I'm stuck at work and not at my home in lansdowne... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Got breezy here in Clifton, nice couple of bolts with it, increasing as the storm rolled through. Gusts to 35 maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Interesting feature over natl park: Looking towards that direction from my firehouse: Just above the tree line, def a little lowering in that direction of the little appendage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Got breezy here in Clifton, nice couple of bolts with it, increasing as the storm rolled through. Gusts to 35 maybe Sounds better than most of the last 2 years at least for us in SE Delco lol WOulnd't be surpsired if that cell went Severe in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Looks like the SPC may issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT FRI AUG 09 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA/PART OF CENTRAL AND SRN NJ/ERN TO SRN MD/DE/NERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091917Z - 092015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN PA...ERN AND SRN MD...AND NERN VA...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO NJ AND THE DELMARVA REGION. A LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE DISCUSSION AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SCATTERED. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A DAMAGING WET MICROBURST. IF GREATER UPSCALE GROWTH OR STORM CONSOLIDATION CAN OCCUR...THEN A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG SURFACE HEATING /LOWER 90S INTO NERN-ERN VA/ AND MID-UPPER 80S IN SERN PA/ADJACENT NJ/ WITHIN A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS /PW EXCEEDING 2 INCH/ IS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH...NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AIDING IN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD FROM ERN PA THROUGH MD /ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR/ INTO CENTRAL VA. SOME STORMS MAY BE TIED TO THIS FEATURE...THOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL VA SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED WITH SWD EXTENT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO WITH SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM SERN PA TO NERN VA AND SPREADING EWD. AREA VAD WIND DATA INDICATED 40-50 KT WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS...WHILE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ALSO SUPPORT STORM SPLITS. THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT ROBUST...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...THOUGH THE AVAILABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. ..PETERS/WEISS.. 08/09/2013 ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39697635 40457558 40417497 40217448 39357489 38827553 38177624 38127687 38537728 39697635 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 The mesoscale discussion went away, so I guess this will not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 The mesoscale discussion went away, so I guess this will not happen. it had no shot really...no storms have been severe...they are pretty much just water loaded storms, the theme of this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 it had no shot really...no storms have been severe...they are pretty much just water loaded storms, the theme of the East Coast. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Extreme SE PA is technically, and I'll use that term loosely, in slight risk for tomorrow along with NJ and Most of DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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