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2013 Mt. Holly CWA Convection Thread


SouthernNJ

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good analysis Mike. Yesterday, the end game was written for some parts of the area once it formed an OFB ahead of it.

Thanks. Yeah, the portion of the line that was strong especially in Chester County had the core start collapsing then it tossed out an outflow boundary and that did it in.

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There is no way the Delaware River has any effect on a line of thunderstorms. Besides the general reasons Mike outlined that are typical of this area, secondary circulations and storm-relative wind are usually the culprits around here too. Perhaps the MLCAPE max likes to situate near the I-95 corridor / NW suburbs; but when storms reach it, they begin to ingest more stable parcels downstream. Any type of ocean influence from the secondary / storm-relative aspect will begin to weaken the storms. This is especially true if they form well west under better synoptic-mesoscale conditions and blow eastward to us away from those suitable dynamics.

Thunderstorms are sensitive. Know what environment they like by the environment they formed in and see, on a relative sense, where they are heading. Just because you have a "1500" CAPE line overhead doesn't mean the storms will make it if the theta-e max is to the west and it drops off substantially toward your east.

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Pretty cool what's happening out on the other end of the state.  You can see a supercell out ahead of the main line, interacting with some boundary that doesn't appear to be outflow.

 

7-10-13tornadoboundaryWPA.png

 

Boundary interactions like that are great precursors to tornadogenesis.

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On a side note, and I recognize that this is only my opinion, but NWS Cleveland really shouldn't be putting out so many TORs for what's likely a few minor QLCS spin-ups.  A minute ago they had 5 separate polygons all touching at least one other polygon (before a few of them expired at 5:00).

 

Edit: One of those five was actually Pittsburgh's.  The number of them may be due to the complex falling on the CWA boundary.

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SPC WRF hitting heavy rain south of the Turnpike tomorrow today.  Narrow corridor of 2-3" in this image (6-hour total valid at 0z) with an additional 1/2" or so coming after that.

 

today_6h_f24.gif

 

NMM (image below valid at 6z Sat, 24-hour total) also has a corridor of 1.5"-2.5" northwest of the city, with a lollipop to around 4".

 

hrw-nmm_eus_030_precip_p24.gif

 

For the record, the NSSL WRF is almost completely dry, and the ARW and hi-res NAM have just general (1/2" or less) precip.

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SPC WRF hitting heavy rain south of the Turnpike tomorrow today.  Narrow corridor of 2-3" in this image (6-hour total valid at 0z) with an additional 1/2" or so coming after that.

 

 

For the record, the NSSL WRF is almost completely dry, and the ARW and hi-res NAM have just general (1/2" or less) precip.

 

Over 1.5" so far - a few rumbles of thunder.

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I see this odd storm report for wind damage in Cumberland county

in Greenwich township on 7/12.  It mentions some roof damage, so

was wondering what storm caused it as I didn't see the radar at

6:30 P.M.

The report came from the Cumberland County OEM. Velocity showed straight line 35 kt winds at that time. At the radar image above the highest DBZ's are over that area.  

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