MGorse Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 good analysis Mike. Yesterday, the end game was written for some parts of the area once it formed an OFB ahead of it. Thanks. Yeah, the portion of the line that was strong especially in Chester County had the core start collapsing then it tossed out an outflow boundary and that did it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott W Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Lots of good cumulus building out there so far today, and in fact radar starting to light up. About to get hit by a small cell here in Wilmington. Cloud cover makes being outside so much more tolerable than in past days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 don't get your hopes up folks to the east of me. The storm that crossed Hershey resembled one of them pay by the hour motels...3 bangs, some wind, and 20 minutes later it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Another day another outflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 15% slight for Wed NW of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 There is no way the Delaware River has any effect on a line of thunderstorms. Besides the general reasons Mike outlined that are typical of this area, secondary circulations and storm-relative wind are usually the culprits around here too. Perhaps the MLCAPE max likes to situate near the I-95 corridor / NW suburbs; but when storms reach it, they begin to ingest more stable parcels downstream. Any type of ocean influence from the secondary / storm-relative aspect will begin to weaken the storms. This is especially true if they form well west under better synoptic-mesoscale conditions and blow eastward to us away from those suitable dynamics. Thunderstorms are sensitive. Know what environment they like by the environment they formed in and see, on a relative sense, where they are heading. Just because you have a "1500" CAPE line overhead doesn't mean the storms will make it if the theta-e max is to the west and it drops off substantially toward your east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Pretty cool what's happening out on the other end of the state. You can see a supercell out ahead of the main line, interacting with some boundary that doesn't appear to be outflow. Boundary interactions like that are great precursors to tornadogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 On a side note, and I recognize that this is only my opinion, but NWS Cleveland really shouldn't be putting out so many TORs for what's likely a few minor QLCS spin-ups. A minute ago they had 5 separate polygons all touching at least one other polygon (before a few of them expired at 5:00). Edit: One of those five was actually Pittsburgh's. The number of them may be due to the complex falling on the CWA boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Do the storms to our west make it all the way here tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Do the storms to our west make it all the way here tonight? Could it? Yeah...Will it, probably not....at least not what it looks like now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 State College is warning on 70 mph on the line, but it looks like crap on radar. Does it just look like crap (because of terrain, or something, but it isn't really?) or is it really crap and CTP is nuts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 That line is falling apart. Looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Pretty cool Local climo: storms firing along this ridge line just N/NE of Harrisburg: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 SPC WRF hitting heavy rain south of the Turnpike tomorrow today. Narrow corridor of 2-3" in this image (6-hour total valid at 0z) with an additional 1/2" or so coming after that. NMM (image below valid at 6z Sat, 24-hour total) also has a corridor of 1.5"-2.5" northwest of the city, with a lollipop to around 4". For the record, the NSSL WRF is almost completely dry, and the ARW and hi-res NAM have just general (1/2" or less) precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott W Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Just had several rumbles of thunder here in downtown West Chester from the activity moving in from the east from DelCo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 over 3 inches of rain so far just north of media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 SPC WRF hitting heavy rain south of the Turnpike tomorrow today. Narrow corridor of 2-3" in this image (6-hour total valid at 0z) with an additional 1/2" or so coming after that. For the record, the NSSL WRF is almost completely dry, and the ARW and hi-res NAM have just general (1/2" or less) precip. Over 1.5" so far - a few rumbles of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 flooding issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 over 3 inches of rain so far just north of media Is this just from this morning? and what was the exact amount. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Is this just from this morning? and what was the exact amount. Thanks. Yes just from the morning 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Yes just from the morning 3.4 Thanks! I think that is PNS worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Flash Flood Watch extended until 2AM tomorrow morning for 1-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted July 14, 2013 Author Share Posted July 14, 2013 I see this odd storm report for wind damage in Cumberland county in Greenwich township on 7/12. It mentions some roof damage, so was wondering what storm caused it as I didn't see the radar at 6:30 P.M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 I see this odd storm report for wind damage in Cumberland county in Greenwich township on 7/12. It mentions some roof damage, so was wondering what storm caused it as I didn't see the radar at 6:30 P.M. From Wunderground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 I see this odd storm report for wind damage in Cumberland county in Greenwich township on 7/12. It mentions some roof damage, so was wondering what storm caused it as I didn't see the radar at 6:30 P.M. The report came from the Cumberland County OEM. Velocity showed straight line 35 kt winds at that time. At the radar image above the highest DBZ's are over that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 Only 7 days till the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1373809206.499871.jpg Only 7 days till the action I'll be in Florida so you can lock this one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1373809206.499871.jpg Only 7 days till the action Depends on the timing. I think ahead of the front steep-lapse rates and favorable CAPE profiles ( wind threat) will be in place should the front come through the during the day/evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 Thank you for the info from the mets who posted about it. Anytime some kind of roof damage is reported in a random storm like that, always a suspicion a weak tornado may have occurred, but the radar data and EM's suggest not to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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