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2013 Mt. Holly CWA Convection Thread


SouthernNJ

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Yea bri it does only problem it appears the worst of the severe weather for now passes south of Delaware County Proper we shall see the one in Chester County is moving east but sinking south at the same time has hail with it so let's see what happens either way you slice it more rain now until at least midnight on and off some very heavy.

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mcd1292.gif

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0230 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OH...PA...WV...MD...DC...NRN   VA...DE...NJ.   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386...387...   VALID 281930Z - 282130Z   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH   386...387...CONTINUES.   SUMMARY...CONTINUE WWS.  WW 386 IS BEING EXTENDED SOMEWHAT NWD   ACROSS PORTIONS ERN OH AND WRN PA PER COORD W/WFO PBZ.  THOUGH   PORTIONS WW 386 ACROSS SWRN PA AND EXTREME NRN WV HAVE BEEN   STABILIZED FOR NOW BY PRIMARY TSTM BAND...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER   OH MAY POSE AT LEAST MRGL SVR RISK OVER WRN PORTIONS WW AS IT MOVES   INTO MODIFYING AIR MASS.  MEANWHILE SVR POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH   CONVECTION FROM THERE EWD TO ATLC COAST.   DISCUSSION...BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN PA...GARRETT COUNTY   MD AND NERN WV IS MOVING THROUGH RELATIVE MOISTURE MIN ATTM...BUT   WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIALLY RICHER THETAE OVER ERN MTNS AND   ADJOINING PIEDMONT.  SEVERAL REPORTS OF TOPPLED TREES HAVE BEEN   RECEIVED FROM PASSAGE OF THESE TSTMS.  FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF   THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...AS IS CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH MORE   WIDELY SCATTERED BLEND OF DISCRETE AND CLUSTERED CONVECTIVE MODES   FARTHER E TOWARD DE VALLEY AND CHESAPEAKE BAY REGIONS.  UPSCALE   AGGREGATION OF COLD POOLS IS POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF THIS   ACTIVITY...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL DAMAGING   WIND ON MESOBETA SCALE.   SOME SUPERCELL RISK ALSO EXISTS...PRIMARILY FROM EXTREME SRN PA SWD   ACROSS ERN WV PANHANDLE AND MD INTO NRN VA...THEN SHIFTING EWD OVER   DELMARVA/NJ.  THAT AREA LIES BENEATH ENHANCED BELT OF MID-UPPER   LEVEL FLOW THAT OFFSETS VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ENOUGH TO   GENERATE 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  PRECONVECTIVE AIR   MASS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SFC   DEW POINTS 70S F IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INSOLATION CONTRIBUTING TO   MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG E OF BLUE RIDGE.  1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IS   EVIDENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND WWD INTO ERN OH.   ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2013
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The signature is stronger now, still not even SVR yet.

TDWR says a TOR may not be out of the question.

 

That area has had several storms move through, so the low levels may be stable enough to allow for a reduced severe threat (despite some rotation showing up on radar).

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An even 0.70" to break the June record

Philly International Airport has reported .71 so far today. So perhaps the record has been attained.

 

28 18:54 S 15 5.00 Thunderstorm Light Rain SCT050CB BKN090 OVC110 72 66     82% NA NA 29.54 1000.2 0.12    

28 17:54 SE 7 6.00 Thunderstorm Light Rain SCT039CB OVC110 71 66     84% NA NA 29.52 999.6 0.43    

28 16:54 SW 13 G 40 1.00 Thunderstorm Heavy Rain FEW026 BKN045CB OVC090 76 69     79% NA 77 29.53 999.8 0.16 0.16

 

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Philly International Airport has reported .71 so far today. So perhaps the record has been attained.

 

28 18:54 S 15 5.00 Thunderstorm Light Rain SCT050CB BKN090 OVC110 72 66     82% NA NA 29.54 1000.2 0.12    

28 17:54 SE 7 6.00 Thunderstorm Light Rain SCT039CB OVC110 71 66     84% NA NA 29.52 999.6 0.43    

28 16:54 SW 13 G 40 1.00 Thunderstorm Heavy Rain FEW026 BKN045CB OVC090 76 69     79% NA 77 29.53 999.8 0.16 0.16

Yepper - 10.11" through 7:00pm so that breaks the pervious record of 10.06" from 1938

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