Thunder Road Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 A Tornado Watch with 30/20 probs, on a day with only a broadbrush 2% Tornado...*shrug*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 A Tornado Watch with 30/20 probs, on a day with only a broadbrush 2% Tornado...*shrug*. SPC has been pretty strange lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 TOR warning in central PA, distinct rotation on radar near Juniata and Perry counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Just a side note, but Forbes upped SE PA, NE MD, DE and NJ to a torcon of 3, says surface winds have become more favorable for some tornadic development in these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Some purple showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 ImageUploadedByTapatalk 21372357978.392432.jpg Some purple showing up 72 kts G2G on the TVS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Looks like the rotation is tightening up some now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 SPC has been pretty strange lately. With the pattern we're in and the massive areas seeing at least the potential for convection every day, I don't begrudge them for perceived inconsistencies on Slight Risks. It's much easier to be consistent with Convective Outlooks for a severe weather outbreak kind of day where all the signs are pretty clear. However, the upgrade to MDT without a precursor MD, and today's Tornado Watch, have me a bit confused (mostly because the probs are low, yet the Watch is for "SEVERAL TORNADOES" which I'm pretty sure can be adjusted to "A FEW TORNADOES" if they wanted it to be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Not bad. Would be nice to see the structure under this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Looks like the rotation is tightening up some now ImageUploadedByTapatalk 21372358170.821659.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Definitely still rotation in that storm, but doesn't look tight anymore. Of course, with it being just south of Blue Mountain, KCCX is probably having a hard time sampling it, and there might still be funny business going on below what the lowest tilt can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 New rotation at the tail end of that line just north of the Blue Mountain Interchange. Nothing particularly strong yet but let's see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 cell over ches bay east of has some slight spin to it. Anyone have a regional radar gif? fancy looking with the vort approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Philly and DC in a tornado watch? With only 25 knots of effective shear? I guess werider things have happened. I think the 2500-3000 CAPE will help to intensify the storms this afternoon. Perhaps the SPC is being extra careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 wonder if they're thinkking the anomolous surface low will back the winds just enough to keep things interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Have to watch the development east of Baltimore for super cell development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 things are popping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 According to GREarth, SCP values are reaching 2 to 3 over Lancaster and Reading down to Northern Delaware, Salem and Cumberland counties. STP values are now showing up over the same locations with values down below 1.. Right now, definite concern as you see these cells by themselves.. So, that appears where several tornadoes could develop.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Just had a brief heavy rain shower. No lightning. edit: Some CG developing as it pulls away to N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 almost looks like a new upper air system developing sw of Washington DC these cells to our south are rotating around that new development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 12z WRF has a decent line coming through later: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 pros: good cape, sfc mositure, bulk shear ehhh @ 30knts..good forcing/lift. cons: weak mid level lapse rates, meager 0-6km vertical shear, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Man looks like a tropical system coming at us from the southwest look at that thing rotate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Looks like there could be multiple lines headed up here the way the radar is blossoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Another brief heavy shower here with some thunder, Cells are consolidating as they pull N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Fresh MD for the watch: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 377... VALID 271957Z - 272130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 377 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP E/NEWD ACROSS PRIMARILY ERN PA/MD...DE AND NJ. A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS PROBABLE BY EARLY EVENING IN PORTIONS OF NERN PA TO SRN NY. DISCUSSION...STRONGEST/LONGEST-LIVED HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE PERSISTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AN MCV CENTERED JUST S OF UNV AS OF 1945Z. CO-LOCATED WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE AND WITH MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS DOWNSTREAM...A SUPERCELL WAS NOTED EARLIER IN JUNIATA/PERRY COUNTY PA BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SUFFICIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR HAS BEEN SAMPLED BY CCX VWP DATA TO SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AMIDST A RELATIVELY CHAOTIC CONVECTIVE MODE. WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SECOND MCV SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MD AND RELATIVELY PROMINENT CU FIELD DOWNSTREAM IN THE NORTHEAST...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A CONSOLIDATED CLUSTER MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE NEWD WITH A RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. TO THE SW OF THE MCV/S...SEVERE THREAT IS NIL AND PORTIONS OF WW IN VA/DC COULD BE SAFELY CLEARED. ..GRAMS.. 06/27/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 SPC added a 5% TOR over us at 20z: Edit to switch to permalink from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Wind still 30%, Hail now shifted south to include PHL in 15% Edit to switch to permalink from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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