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2013 Mt. Holly CWA Convection Thread


SouthernNJ

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SPC has been pretty strange lately.

 

With the pattern we're in and the massive areas seeing at least the potential for convection every day, I don't begrudge them for perceived inconsistencies on Slight Risks.  It's much easier to be consistent with Convective Outlooks for a severe weather outbreak kind of day where all the signs are pretty clear.

 

However, the upgrade to MDT without a precursor MD, and today's Tornado Watch, have me a bit confused (mostly because the probs are low, yet the Watch is for "SEVERAL TORNADOES" which I'm pretty sure can be adjusted to "A FEW TORNADOES" if they wanted it to be).

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Definitely still rotation in that storm, but doesn't look tight anymore.  Of course, with it being just south of Blue Mountain, KCCX is probably having a hard time sampling it, and there might still be funny business going on below what the lowest tilt can see.

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According to GREarth, SCP values are reaching 2 to 3 over Lancaster and Reading down to Northern Delaware, Salem and Cumberland counties. 

 

STP values are now showing up over the same locations with values down below 1..

 

Right now, definite concern as you see these cells by themselves.. So, that appears where several tornadoes could develop..

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Fresh MD for the watch:



mcd1270.gif
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0257 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 377...   VALID 271957Z - 272130Z   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 377 CONTINUES.   SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO   SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP E/NEWD ACROSS PRIMARILY ERN PA/MD...DE AND   NJ. A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS PROBABLE BY EARLY EVENING IN   PORTIONS OF NERN PA TO SRN NY.   DISCUSSION...STRONGEST/LONGEST-LIVED HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE   PERSISTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AN MCV CENTERED JUST S OF UNV AS OF   1945Z. CO-LOCATED WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE AND WITH MODEST   SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS DOWNSTREAM...A SUPERCELL WAS NOTED EARLIER IN   JUNIATA/PERRY COUNTY PA BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SUFFICIENT   LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR HAS BEEN SAMPLED BY CCX VWP DATA TO SUPPORT   TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AMIDST A RELATIVELY CHAOTIC   CONVECTIVE MODE. WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION   WITH A SECOND MCV SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MD AND RELATIVELY   PROMINENT CU FIELD DOWNSTREAM IN THE NORTHEAST...STRONG TO SEVERE   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A   CONSOLIDATED CLUSTER MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE NEWD WITH A RISK FOR   MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.    TO THE SW OF THE MCV/S...SEVERE THREAT IS NIL AND PORTIONS OF WW IN   VA/DC COULD BE SAFELY CLEARED.   ..GRAMS.. 06/27/2013
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